Articles tagged as "Epidemiology"

HIV incidence – labour intensive to measure but key to inform effective HIV prevention programmes

Editor’s notes: It is increasingly clear that in order to control the HIV epidemic, we need to invest not only in the scale up of treatment but also in effective and evidence based prevention programming.  UNAIDS has set ambitious targets to reduce the number of new HIV infections to 500 000 by the end of 2020. A major, ongoing, challenge is that we must use mathematical models to estimate the number of new infections.  We do not have enough data on the actual number of new infections and the characteristics of the people newly infected.  So the household surveys conducted in Rwanda by Nsanzimana and colleagues are an important study.  The authors conducted two nationally representative surveys in 2013 and 2014, and were able to repeat HIV tests in 12 593 people out of 13 728 whose initial test had been negative.  They found 35 people who had seroconverted, which reminds us how large this sort of study needs to be in a setting where HIV prevalence is around 3%.  The incidence rate of 0.27 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.18 – 0.35), is higher than the authors had anticipated from previous modelled estimates.  Part of the reason for this was that they found several villages and households with multiple seroconversions, which suggests multiple outbreaks.  This heterogeneity in the pattern of new HIV infections could have important implications for prevention activities and approaches, as well as for methodologies used in designing surveys.  In Rwanda, the risks of HIV infection were higher among older adults (aged 36-45 years) compared to the younger participants (aged 16-25 years); higher in the West of the country and higher in urban areas.  However, the small number of seroconversion events means that the confidence intervals for these comparisons are wide, particularly given the observed heterogeneity between villages in the sample.

 

Household survey of HIV incidence in Rwanda: a national observational cohort study

Nsanzimana S, Remera E, Kanters S, Mulindabigwi A, Suthar AB, Uwizihiwe JP, Mwumvaneza M, Mills EJ, Bucher HC. Lancet HIV. 2017 Oct;4(10):e457-e464. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(17)30124-8. Epub 2017 Aug 8.

Background: In Rwanda, HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 years has been stable at 3% since 2005. The aim of this study was to characterise HIV incidence across Rwanda.

Methods: We did a nationally representative, prospective HIV incidence survey for the period of 2013-14, which used two-stage sampling. We randomly selected 492 villages in the first sampling stage and 14 households per village in the second stage. Participants completed a questionnaire and 14 140 people were tested for HIV. 13 728 participants were HIV negative, and were enrolled in the incidence cohort. Participants were retested and surveyed again after 12 months. Weights were calculated as the inverse of the probability to select the villages and the households.

Findings: The study period was from Nov 5, 2013, to Nov 15, 2014. Among 14 222 respondents from 6792 households, 14 140 were tested for HIV and 13 728 were HIV negative. Of 12 593 people who participated in the endpoint data collection activities, 5965 (47·4%) were men and the mean age was 30 years (SD 10·8). 11 237 (89·2%) participants lived in rural areas, 4826 (38·3%) were single, and 7140 (56·7%) were married or cohabitating. During the year, 35 participants had seroconversion, including 13 men and 22 women, resulting in an overall incidence of 0·27 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·18-0·35). Incidence was 0·21 per 100 person-years (0·10-0·32) in men and 0·32 per 100 person-years (0·19-0·45) in women. Our findings suggested multiple breakouts, with multiple seroconversions occurring in three villages and two households. Incidence was higher in adults aged 36-45 years (0·37 per 100 person-years, 0·12-0·62; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 4·49, 95% CI 1·30-14·70) relative to those aged 16-25, higher in western province (0·57 per 100 person-years, 0·31-0·87; aHR 5·90, 1·33-25·28) relative to the northern province, and higher in urban areas (0·65 per 100 person-years, 0·23-1·07; aHR 3·10, 1·28-6·99) than in rural areas.

Interpretation: The incidence of HIV in Rwanda was higher than that previously estimated from models, with outbreaks seeming to contribute to the ongoing epidemic. Characterisation of incident infections can help the national HIV programmes to plan for preventive interventions tailored to the most at-risk populations.

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Epidemiology, HIV
Africa
Rwanda
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Efforts to understand commercial and transactional sex – involve the community and use both quantitative and qualitative methods

Editor’s notes: As the overall number of new HIV infections falls, it is likely that an increasingly large proportion of infections will occur in key populations and among those left behind by HIV services.  In order to plan, deliver, monitor and evaluate services for specific populations, we need to develop the best estimates possible of the number of people in each population.  Sharifi and colleagues provide an excellent introduction to some of the methods that have been tried to estimate population size of key populations.  Each of the three methods that the authors used to estimate the number of female sex-workers living in urban areas of Iran has strengths and weaknesses.  Used together the methods may allow some triangulation of estimates.  The authors found that the ‘wisdom of the crowds’, in which sex-workers are asked to provide their own best estimates tended to give the highest figures.  The possibility is that where sex work is highly stigmatized and criminalized (as it is in Iran) women may tend to subconsciously exaggerate the numbers in order to normalize their position in society.  Multiplier methods which use “capture-recapture” approaches gave the lowest estimates, which may be due to the same sample of women being seen in both the two approaches used to estimate numbers.  For instance, if some women are more reluctant to be identified, they may be missed both in the distribution of “tags” or gifts and then again in the “re-capture” survey.  The total estimate is then calculated by multiplying the inverse of the proportion of how many women in the survey had received the “tags”.  So, this may produce an underestimate if the same women are missed in both rounds of the research.  Finally, the network methods are used during national surveys and ask respondents to identify how many of their network are sex workers.  Supposedly this avoids the stigma of identifying oneself as a sex worker to the interviewer.  The authors best estimate is that there are more than 200 000 female sex workers in urban settings in Iran, which is considerably higher than the previous estimates.  However, the paper’s key strength is the discussion of the different approaches and how we can improve our understanding of this valuable metric.

The Iranian researchers used a standard definition of sex work, based on having exchanged sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) for money, goods, or favours with at least one male partner in the past 12 months.  However, it is clear that this definition overlaps with many sexual relationships that neither partner would classify as sex work.  Raganathan and colleagues present a fascinating qualitative study of transactional sex and sexual agency among young women in rural South Africa.  Of course, it is not surprising that sex is embedded within a complex framework of romantic relationships that are modified by the degree to which young women values herself and her own agency.  Financial independence is a key to safer relationships, but gifts and money also enhance the status of young women and indicate commitment from their male partner.  It is one thing to count and label sexual transactions, but it is another to understand them and work with young people to enhance their ability to avoid HIV infection.

 

Population size estimation of female sex workers in Iran: synthesis of methods and results

Sharifi H, Karamouzian M, Baneshi MR, Shokoohi M, Haghdoost A, McFarland W, Mirzazadeh A. PLoS One. 2017 Aug 10;12(8):e0182755. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182755. eCollection 2017.

Introduction: Estimating the number of key populations at risk of HIV is essential for planning, monitoring, and evaluating prevention, care, and treatment programmes. We conducted this study to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in major cities of Iran.

Methods: We used three population size estimation methods (i.e., wisdom of the crowds, multiplier method, and network scale-up) to calculate the number of FSW in 13 cities in Iran. The wisdom of the crowds and multiplier methods were integrated into a nationwide bio-behavioural surveillance survey in 2015, and the network scale-up method was included in a national survey of the general population in 2014. The median of the three methods was used to calculate the proportion of the adult female population who practice sex work in the 13 cities. These figures were then extrapolated to provide a national population size estimation of FSW across urban areas.

Results: The population size of FSW was 91 500 (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UIs] 61 400-117 700), corresponding to 1.43% (95% UIs 0.96-1.84) of the adult (i.e., 15-49 years-old) female population living in these 13 cities. The projected numbers of FSW for all 31 provincial capital cities were 130 800 (95% UIs 87 800-168 200) and 228 700 (95% UIs 153 500-294 300) for all urban settings in Iran.

Conclusions: Using methods of comparable rigor, our study provided a data-driven national estimate of the population size of FSW in urban areas of Iran. Our findings provide vital information for enhancing HIV programme planning and lay a foundation for assessing the impact of harm reduction efforts within this marginalized population.

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Young women's perceptions of transactional sex and sexual agency: a qualitative study in the context of rural South Africa

Ranganathan M, MacPhail C, Pettifor A, Kahn K, Khoza N, Twine R, Watts C, Heise L.BMC Public Health. 2017 Aug 22;17(1):666. doi: 10.1186/s12889-017-4636-6

Background: Evidence shows that HIV prevalence among young women in sub-Saharan Africa increases almost five-fold between ages 15 and 24, with almost a quarter of young women infected by their early-to mid-20s. Transactional sex or material exchange for sex is a relationship dynamic that has been shown to have an association with HIV infection.

Methods: Using five focus group discussions and 19 in-depth interviews with young women enrolled in the HPTN 068 conditional cash transfer trial (2011-2015), this qualitative study explores young women's perceptions of transactional sex within the structural and cultural context of rural South Africa. The analysis also considers the degree to which young women perceive themselves as active agents in such relationships and whether they recognise a link between transactional sex and HIV risk.

Results: Young women believe that securing their own financial resources will ultimately improve their bargaining position in their sexual relationships, and open doors to a more financially independent future. Findings suggest there is a nuanced relationship between sex, love and gifts: money has symbolic meaning, and money transfers, when framed as gifts, indicates a young woman's value and commitment from the man. This illustrates the complexity of transactional sex; the way it is positioned in the HIV literature ignores that "exchanges" serve as fulcrums around which romantic relationships are organised. Finally, young women express agency in their choice of partner, but their agency weakens once they are in a relationship characterised by exchange, which may undermine their ability to translate perceived agency into STI and HIV risk reduction efforts.

Conclusions: This research underscores the need to recognise that transactional sex is embedded in adolescent romantic relationships, but that certain aspects make young women particularly vulnerable to HIV. This is especially true in situations of restricted choice and circumscribed employment opportunities. HIV prevention educational programmes could be coupled with income generation trainings, in order to leverage youth resilience and protective skills within the confines of difficult economic and social circumstances. This would provide young women with the knowledge and means to more successfully navigate safer sexual relationships.

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Africa, Asia
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How are we going to get to our prevention targets? Old tools, new tools and a more nuanced understanding of transmission dynamics.

Editor’s notes: By 2020, the Fast-Track strategy is aiming to reduce new HIV infections to 200 000 per year.  There is increasing recognition that if we are to succeed, we will need to do much more than simply putting people onto HIV treatment.  Despite the massive impact of ART on infectiousness, the decline in new infections at the community level is still not fast enough, even in countries like Botswana (see above) where 90-90-90 has almost been reached.  Renewed enthusiasm for primary prevention has also followed key trials of biomedical prevention tools including voluntary medical male circumcision and ARV-based prevention.  It is all too easy for us to forget the crucial role that condoms have played from the early days of the epidemic.  More recently, with HIV seen as a less terrifying infection, many programmes suffer from “condom fatigue”.  So it is good to see papers on the key importance of condoms as well as perspectives on how they are perceived by young men.

The magic of ARVs does not end with treatment.  We are finally moving to wider use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).  There is no doubt that PrEP works when taken, but there are still plenty of questions for policy-makers about how to adopt it whole-heartedly into their national strategic plans and for financiers about how to pay for it.  Papers this month cover a range of experiences with PrEP from the US, where the huge majority of PrEP users still live, to Europe and Australia, where policies are finally moving towards wider use.  Long acting PrEP remains a key objective for many, as it might improve regular adherence, which has proved the Achilles’ heel of oral and topical PrEP in several of the large studies.

One of the ways to make PrEP most cost-effective is to ensure that it is available to people who are most likely to acquire HIV.  So the hope continues that phylogenetic analyses will allow more sophisticated understanding of the dynamics of the multiple overlapping networks of HIV transmission in communities.  Papers this month cover Australia and the PANGEA consortium of African research sites along with a cautionary comment about establishing the ethical framework for such studies, particularly among populations who are already subject to discrimination and criminalization.

When used correctly and consistently, condoms are highly effective not only to prevent HIV but also to prevent pregnancy and to prevent sexually transmitted infections.  Stover and colleagues have tried to capture all three benefits in one model.  They explore three potential scenarios for condom programming between now and 2030 in 81 countries that are priorities for family planning or HIV programmers or both.  The benefits of greater investment in condoms are huge.  In their most optimistic scenario, the authors suggest that if the entire gap between people who would like to use condoms and people who currently use them was filled (almost 11 billion condoms over the period), this could prevent up to 400 million unwanted pregnancies; 16.8 million new HIV infections and more than 700 million sexually transmitted infections.  The costs are quite modest, and at $115 per DALY averted this is an investment that everyone should support.  There are of course limitations in such a broad brush model, but it provides an excellent starting point.

The challenges in provision of condoms to young people go well beyond the cost and effectiveness considerations that underpin the previous analysis.  In an interesting qualitative study in South Africa, de Bruin and Panday-Soobrayan report their findings from focus group discussions with learners in 33 public schools.  Most of the learners were not in favour of provision of condoms at school, although they were keen on more youth friendly sexual and reproductive health and rights services within the public sector.  Many thought that provision of condoms would lead to earlier and more frequent sexual contacts, despite considerable experience showing that this is not the case in other settings.

Multiple trials have shown that PrEP is extremely effective when it is used consistently and correctly.  Many countries in all continents are now beginning to work out where it fits within their combination prevention package.  To date, the large majority of PrEP users are in the United States of America (USA), where more than 140 000 people have started.  It is much harder to measure how many are still taking it regularly.  Patel and colleagues analysed utilization at three months after the initial prescription of PrEP in three major PrEP clinics in three states in the USA.  18% of the 201 people (90% male) seen at baseline did not use their PrEP and this was strongly predicted by insurance status, with around a four-fold risk of dropping out among those who were not insured.  Although the numbers are small, this is an important study.  The authors suggest that increased insurance cover might make PrEP have a greater impact.  More broadly it raises the challenge that PrEP is often needed most by people least able to access it.  This will be a real challenge in countries where people most at risk, such as gay men and other men who have sex with men and sex workers, are criminalized or discriminated against in many health care settings.

In Australia, PrEP has been provided through large demonstration projects while awaiting decisions about how to include it in routine practice.  Lal and colleagues report results from 114 (one transgender woman, the rest male) people taking PrEP in the Victorian PrEP Demonstration project.  Participants have to pay an equivalent of an insurance co-payment, in order to make the situation more like the “real world”.  The participants were recruited because they were at high risk of HIV engaging in condomless anal sex with partners who were known to be living with HIV or of unknown status.  Adherence to PrEP was excellent as measured by a variety of reported and biological measures.  They observed one seroconversion in a man with exposure two weeks before starting PrEP who was already in the process of seroconverting and whose virus was found to be resistant to emtricitabine.  The only other seroconversion occurred in someone who had not yet started PrEP.  The authors found a substantial increase in rates of gonorrhoea and chlamydia once participants were “stable” on PrEP after three months.  There was also a significant reduction in condom use with both regular and casual partners.  This is one of the first studies to document important risk compensation among PrEP users.  Of course, preventing HIV is a huge benefit that generally outweighs the harms of additional treatment for sexually transmitted infections.  However, the study emphasizes the importance of enhancing sexual health services alongside PrEP and reminds us that people most at risk of HIV are also at high risk of other infections (and also of pregnancy in the context of heterosexual transmission.)  If PrEP is integrated within a broad sexual health service, there could be considerable synergistic benefits.

Gay men and men who have sex with men who enrolled in the PrEP demonstration project in Amsterdam also had high concomitant rates of hepatitis C virus (HCV).  Hoorenborg and colleagues found that around 5% of the 375 men enrolled in the project were co-infected.  The HCV found among these men were genetically similar to those circulating in the population of gay men and other men who have sex with men living with HIV, and more distinct from HCV from other risk groups.  This is good evidence that HCV and HIV both circulate in this population, and emphasizes once again the need for more integrated services, including hepatitis screening.

The ÉCLAIR study is a phase 2a trial of cabotegravir injections in healthy HIV-negative male volunteers.  As noted, adherence is a major challenge in many PrEP trials; although notably less of a problem when people choose to take PrEP in demonstration projects.  It is hoped that cabotegravir could be the first long acting PrEP.  Markowitz and colleagues presented the results of this study at CROI 2017.  The authors point out that although the injections are painful, many men stated that they would be happy to continue if the injections were effective.  No serious safety challenges emerged. The pharmacokinetics suggests that a dose given more frequently will be needed – and subsequent trials will use a two monthly regimen. 

One group for whom PrEP has been recommended by WHO for some years are serodiscordant couples (SDCs).  The Partners PrEP study, which forms one of the cornerstones for the evidence that PrEP works for both men and women, was conducted in SDCs.  The idea is to protect the HIV-negative partner from infection until such time as the partner living with HIV has been on ART consistently and suppressed their viral load.  So a study from the Centers for Disease Control USA is relevant to discussions of PrEP.  Crepaz and colleagues found that around 6000 new HIV infections occur each year in the USA among men and women having heterosexual sex and are aware that their partner is living with HIV.  They point out that viral suppression is achieved by only around 50% of heterosexuals living with HIV and that an additional proportion does not know their HIV status.  So the importance of HIV testing, and of focusing efforts on serodiscordant couples is clear.  Such efforts include both improving HIV treatment effectiveness, and providing a range of prevention choices including PrEP until viral suppression is achieved.

While the study above used traditional epidemiological surveillance reports, phylogenetics may provide additional insights into the dynamics of transmission.  In Australia, where notifications with HIV are rising steadily,  Castley and colleagues have examined the sequence data from almost 5000 viruses collected across the country from 2005-2012.  This sample is drawn from around 1200 new HIV infections per year (and around 27 000 people living with HIV).  The sample is not random, but reflects samples that were sent for sequencing to determine drug resistance.  Around one quarter of sequences are found in tight clusters (pairs, triplets or more) with other sequences, making it likely that they are closely connected by transmission.  Of course, all HIV sequences have been transmitted, so a longer time period and complete sampling would be expected to give a much higher proportion in clusters.  Indeed the more recent samples are around twice as likely to be in clusters as those collected at the start of the time period. Nonetheless, the large sample and the time period of collection allows some clear observations to be made.  In all states, the proportion of non-B subtypes is increasing, which must relate to travel and migration to and from Asia and Africa.  There is little evidence that the C subtypes (originally from Africa) are found in all male clusters suggesting little spill over into the community of gay men and other men having sex with men.  Larger clusters are more common among younger, all male networks. Like most molecular epidemiological studies, there are a small number of large clusters which represent highly active transmission.  These clusters are also most likely to be all male.  Taken together, the results suggest that the steady rise in notifications in Australia is probably due to increasing migration and travel and to ongoing active transmission networks among young gay men.  The challenge is to turn this sort of analysis into clear policy recommendations that can improve HIV prevention.

UNAIDS joined an interesting meeting on the ethics of phylogenetic studies in Africa organised by the PANGEA consortium.  Many of the issues discussed are also covered in a comment by Cohen on the importance of thinking through the risks inherent in these studies.  A key issue is to ensure that systems are reinforced to monitor any unexpected harms and to establish mitigation strategies to minimize them.  The challenges are not necessarily different to traditional epidemiological studies which may highlight networks and locations of groups that are criminalized or discriminated against.  In community consultations, prior to agreeing to go forward with phylogenetic studies, some potential participants even say that they would be keen to “know who infected them” in order to punish them.  This is clearly NOT the aim of such studies and emphasizes the importance of clear information about the limitations of the techniques which cannot usually rule out the possibility of additional links in the transmission chain.  Issues of anonymised information and what to do if clinically relevant results such as drug resistance mutations are uncovered as incidental findings also need to be discussed.

Furthermore, Ratmann and colleagues, reporting on the first 4000 sequences from the PANGEA consortium (largely from the Rakai project in Uganda), also emphasize some of the technical challenges that may lead to erroneous results in creating phylogenies.  There is little doubt that as the cost of sequencing falls and as the technologies and software become increasingly straightforward, we will see more and more studies of sequence data.  It is likely that analysis of these data will lead to more nuanced approaches to HIV prevention, particularly as the overall incidence falls, and sharper tools are needed to dissect the pathways of ongoing transmission.

The case for investing in the male condom

Stover J, Rosen JE, Carvalho MN, Korenromp EL, Friedman HS, Cogan M, Deperthes B. PLoS One. 2017 May 16;12(5):e0177108. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177108. eCollection 2017.

When used correctly and consistently, the male condom offers triple protection from unintended pregnancy and the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, with health funding levels stagnant or falling, it is important to understand the cost and health impact associated with prevention technologies. This study is one of the first to attempt to quantify the cost and combined health impact of condom use, as a means to prevent unwanted pregnancy and to prevent transmission of STIs including HIV. This paper describes the analysis to make the case for investment in the male condom, including the cost, impact and cost-effectiveness by three scenarios (low in which 2015 condom use levels are maintained; medium in which condom use trends are used to predict condom use from 2016-2030; and high in which condom use is scaled up, as part of a package of contraceptives, to meet all unmet need for family planning by 2030 and to 90% for HIV and STI prevention by 2016) for 81 countries from 2015-2030. An annual gap between current and desired use of 10.9 billion condoms was identified (4.6 billion for family planning and 6.3 billion for HIV and STIs). Under a high scenario that completely reduces that gap between current and desired use of 10.9 billion condoms, we found that by 2030 countries could avert 240 million DALYs. The additional cost in the 81 countries through 2030 under the medium scenario is $1.9 billion, and $27.5 billion under the high scenario. Through 2030, the cost-effectiveness ratios are $304 per DALY averted for the medium and $115 per DALY averted for the high scenario. Under the three scenarios described above, our analysis demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of the male condom in preventing unintended pregnancy and HIV and STI new infections. Policy makers should increase budgets for condom programming to increase the health return on investment of scarce resources.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Learners' perspectives on the provision of condoms in South African public schools.

de Bruin WE, Panday-Soobrayan S. AIDS care. 2017 May 16:1-4. doi: 10.1080/09540121.2017.1327647. [Epub ahead of print]

A stubborn health challenge for learners in South African public schools concerns sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR). In 2015, the Department of Basic Education (DBE) proposed the provision of condoms and SRHR-services to learners in schools. This study aimed to contribute to the finalisation and implementation of DBE's policy by exploring learners' perspectives on the provision of condoms and SRHR-services in schools. Sixteen focus group discussions were conducted with learners (n = 116) from 33 public schools, to assess their attitudes, social influences, and needs and desires regarding condom provision and SRHR-services in schools. The majority of learners did not support condom provision in schools as they feared that it may increase sexual activity. Contrarily, they supported the provision of other SRHR-services as clinics fail to offer youth-friendly services. Learners' sexual behaviour and access to SRHR-services are strongly determined by their social environment, including traditional norms and values, and social-pressure from peers and adults. Learners' most pressing needs and desires to access condoms and SRHR-services in school concerned respect, privacy and confidentiality of such service provision. Implementation of DBE's policy must be preceded by an evidence-informed advocacy campaign to debunk myths about the risk of increased sexual activity, to advocate for why such services are needed, to shift societal norms towards open discussion of adolescent SRHR and to grapple with the juxtaposition of being legally empowered but socially inhibited to protect oneself from HIV, STIs and early pregnancy. Provision of condoms and other SRHR-services in schools must be sensitive to learners' privacy and confidentiality to minimise stigma and discrimination.

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Impact of insurance coverage on utilization of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention

Patel RR, Mena L, Nunn A, McBride T, Harrison LC, Oldenburg CE, Liu J, Mayer KH, Chan PA.  PLoS One. 2017 May 30;12(5):e0178737 . doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178737. eCollection 2017.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can reduce U.S. HIV incidence. We assessed insurance coverage and its association with PrEP utilization. We reviewed patient data at three PrEP clinics (Jackson, Mississippi; St. Louis, Missouri; Providence, Rhode Island) from 2014-2015. The outcome, PrEP utilization, was defined as patient PrEP use at three months. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine the association between insurance coverage and PrEP utilization. Of 201 patients (Jackson: 34%; St. Louis: 28%; Providence: 28%), 91% were male, 51% were White, median age was 29 years, and 21% were uninsured; 82% of patients reported taking PrEP at three months. Insurance coverage was significantly associated with PrEP utilization. After adjusting for Medicaid-expansion and individual socio-demographics, insured patients were four times as likely to use PrEP services compared to the uninsured (OR: 4.49, 95% CI: 1.68-12.01; p = 0.003). Disparities in insurance coverage are important considerations in implementation programs and may impede PrEP utilization.

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Medication adherence, condom use and sexually transmitted infections in Australian PrEP users: interim results from the Victorian PrEP demonstration project

Lal L, Audsley J, Murphy D, Fairley CK, Stoove M, Roth N, Moore R, Tee BK, Puratmaja N, Anderson PL, Leslie D, Grant RM, De Wit J, Wright E; VicPrEP Study Team. AIDS. 2017 May 1 doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001519. [Epub ahead of print]

Objective: HIV Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) decreases risk of HIV acquisition however its efficacy is closely dependent on adherence. There is also concern that the preventive effect of PrEP may be offset by risk compensation, notably an increase in condomless anal sex.

Design: Multi-site, open-label demonstration study that recruited people at current or recent risk of HIV infection in Melbourne, Australia.

Methods: Participants were recruited from three general practice clinics and one sexual health clinic in Melbourne and consented to take daily tenofovir/emtricitabine for 30 months. Sexual practice data, HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) test results were collected at baseline and 3-monthly during follow up. PrEP adherence was evaluated by self-report at clinical visits, online surveys, refill-based assessments and dried blood spot (DBS) testing. We present a 12-month interim analysis.

Results: 114 people were recruited. We observed a significant decline in condom use which occurred concomitantly with a significant increase in STIs over the first 12 months of PrEP. Incidence (per 100PY) of any STI was 43.2 and 119.8 at m0-3 and M3-12, respectively (IRR 2.77 (1.52, 5.56)). Adherence to PrEP medication was high by all measures, including six month TDF-FTC levels in DBS.

Conclusions: We found significant reduction in condom use and an increase STIs over the first 12 months of follow-up. High medication adherence rates coupled with a decline in condom use and a rise in STIs, suggests that prevention, early detection and treatment of STIs is a chief research priority in the current era of HIV PrEP.

Abstract

Men who have sex with men starting pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are at risk of HCV infection: evidence from the Amsterdam PrEP study

Hoornenborg E, Achterbergh RC, Van Der Loeff MF, Davidovich U, Hogewoning A, de Vries HJ, Schinkel J, Prins M, Laar TJWV; Amsterdam PrEP Project team in the HIV Transmission Elimination AMsterdam Initiative, MOSAIC study group. AIDS. 2017 May 1. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001522. [Epub ahead of print].

Objectives and Design: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been recognised as an emerging sexually transmitted infection (STI) among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). However, HIV-negative MSM at high risk for HIV might also be at increased risk for HCV. We studied the HCV prevalence in HIV-negative MSM who start pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in Amsterdam. Phylogenetic analysis was used to compare HCV strains obtained from HIV-negative and HIV-positive MSM.

Methods: At enrolment in the Amsterdam PrEP (AMPrEP) demonstration project, HIV-negative MSM were tested for the presence of HCV antibodies and HCV RNA. If positive for HCV RNA, an HCV NS5B gene fragment (709 bp) was sequenced and compared with HCV isolates from HIV-positive MSM (n = 223) and risk groups other than MSM (n = 153), using phylogenetic analysis.

Results: Of 375 HIV-negative MSM enrolled in AMPrEP, 18 (4.8%, 95%CI 2.9%-7.5%) of participants were anti-HCV and/or HCV RNA positive at enrolment; 15/18 (83%) had detectable HCV RNA. HCV genotyping showed genotype 1a (73%), 4d (20%) and 2b (7%). All HCV-positive MSM starting PrEP were part of MSM-specific HCV clusters containing MSM with and without HIV.

Conclusion: HCV prevalence among HIV-negative MSM who started PrEP was higher than previously reported. All HIV-negative HCV-positive MSM were infected with HCV strains already circulating among HIV-positive MSM. The increasing overlap between sexual networks of HIV-positive and HIV-negative MSM might result in an expanding HCV-epidemic irrespective of HIV-status. Hence, routine HCV testing should be offered to MSM at high risk for HIV, especially for those enrolling in PrEP programs.

Abstract

Safety and tolerability of long-acting cabotegravir injections in HIV-uninfected men (ECLAIR): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2a trial.

Markowitz M, Frank I, Grant RM, Mayer KH, Elion R, Goldstein D, Fisher C, Sobieszczyk ME, Gallant JE, Van Tieu H, Weinberg W, . Margolis DA, Hudson KJ, Stancil BS, Ford SL, Patel P, Gould E, Rinehart AR, Smith KY, Spreen WR. Lancet HIV. 2017 May 22. pii: S2352-3018(17)30068-1. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(17)30068-1. [Epub ahead of print]

Background: Cabotegravir (GSK1265744) is an HIV-1 integrase strand transfer inhibitor with potent antiviral activity and a long half-life when administered by injection that prevented simian-HIV infection upon repeat intrarectal challenge in male macaques. We aimed to assess the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of long-acting cabotegravir injections in healthy men not at high risk of HIV-1 infection.

Methods: We did this multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2a trial at ten sites in the USA. Healthy men (aged 18-65 years) deemed not at high risk of acquiring HIV-1 at screening were randomly assigned (5:1), via computer-generated central randomisation schedules, to receive cabotegravir or placebo. Participants received oral cabotegravir 30 mg tablets or matching placebo once daily during a 4 week oral lead-in phase, followed by a 1 week washout period and, after safety assessment, three intramuscular injections of long-acting cabotegravir 800 mg or saline placebo at 12 week intervals. Study site staff and participants were masked to treatment assignment from enrolment through week 41 (time of the last injection). The primary endpoint was safety and tolerability from the first injection (week 5) to 12 weeks after the last injection. We did analysis in the safety population, defined as all individuals enrolled in the study who received at least one dose of the study drug. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT02076178.

Findings: Between March 27, 2014, and Feb 23, 2016, we randomly assigned 127 participants to receive cabotegravir (n=106) or placebo (n=21); 126 (99%) participants comprised the safety population. Most participants were men who have sex with men (MSM; n=106 [83%]) and white (n=71 [56%]). 87 (82%) participants in the cabotegravir group and 20 (95%) participants in the placebo group completed the injection phase. Adverse events (n=7 [7%]) and injection intolerability (n=4 [4%]) were the main reasons for withdrawal in the cabotegravir group. The frequency of grade 2 or higher adverse events was higher in participants in the long-acting cabotegravir group (n=75 [80%]) than in those in the placebo group (n=10 [48%]; p=0·0049), mostly due to injection-site pain (n=55 [59%]). No significant differences were noted in concomitant medications, laboratory abnormalities, electrocardiogram, and vital sign assessments. Geometric mean trough plasma concentrations were 0·302 μg/mL (95% CI 0·237-0·385), 0·331 μg/mL (0·253-0·435), and 0·387 μg/mL (0·296-0·505) for injections one, two, and three, respectively, indicating lower than predicted exposure. The geometric mean apparent terminal phase half-life estimated after the third injection was 40 days. Two (2%) MSM acquired HIV-1 infection, one in the placebo group during the injection phase and one in the cabotegravir group 24 weeks after the final injection when cabotegravir exposure was well below the protein-binding-adjusted 90% inhibitory concentration.

Interpretation: Despite high incidence of transient, mild-to-moderate injection-site reactions, long-acting cabotegravir was well tolerated with an acceptable safety profile. Pharmacokinetic data suggest that 800 mg administered every 12 weeks is a suboptimal regimen; alternative dosing strategies are being investigated. Our findings support further investigation of long-acting injectable cabotegravir as an alternative to orally administered pre-exposure prophylaxis regimens.

Abstract

Examination of HIV infection through heterosexual contact with partners who are known to be HIV infected in the United States, 2010-2015

Crepaz N, Dong B, Chen M, Hall I. AIDS. 2017 Jul 17;31(11):1641-1644. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001526.

Using data from the National HIV Surveillance System, we examined HIV infections diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 attributed to heterosexual contact with partners previously known to be HIV infected. More than four in 10 HIV infections among heterosexual males and five in 10 HIV infections among heterosexual women were attributed to this group. Findings may inform the prioritization of prevention and care efforts and resource allocation modeling for reducing new HIV infection among discordant partnerships.

Abstract

A national study of the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Australia 2005–2012

Castley A, Sawleshwarkar S, Varma R, Herring B, Thapa K, Dwyer D, Chibo D, Nguyen N, Hawke K, Ratcliff R, Garsia R, Kelleher A, Nolan D; Australian Molecular Epidemiology Network-HIV (AMEN-HIV).. PLoS One. 2017 May 10;12(5):e0170601. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170601. eCollection 2017.

Introduction: Rates of new HIV-1 diagnoses are increasing in Australia, with evidence of an increasing proportion of non-B HIV-1 subtypes reflecting a growing impact of migration and travel. The present study aims to define HIV-1 subtype diversity patterns and investigate possible HIV-1 transmission networks within Australia.

Methods: The Australian Molecular Epidemiology Network (AMEN) HIV collaborating sites in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, Queensland and western Sydney (New South Wales), provided baseline HIV-1 partial pol sequence, age and gender information for 4873 patients who had genotypes performed during 2005-2012. HIV-1 phylogenetic analyses utilised MEGA V6, with a stringent classification of transmission pairs or clusters (bootstrap ≥98%, genetic distance ≤1.5% from at least one other sequence in the cluster).

Results: HIV-1 subtype B represented 74.5% of the 4873 sequences (WA 59%, SA 68.4%, w-Syd 73.8%, Vic 75.6%, Qld 82.1%), with similar proportion of transmission pairs and clusters found in the B and non-B cohorts (23% vs 24.5% of sequences, p = 0.3). Significantly more subtype B clusters were comprised of ≥3 sequences compared with non-B clusters (45.0% vs 24.0%, p = 0.021) and significantly more subtype B pairs and clusters were male-only (88% compared to 53% CRF01_AE and 17% subtype C clusters). Factors associated with being in a cluster of any size included; being sequenced in a more recent time period (p<0.001), being younger (p<0.001), being male (p = 0.023) and having a B subtype (p = 0.02). Being in a larger cluster (>3) was associated with being sequenced in a more recent time period (p = 0.05) and being male (p = 0.008).

Conclusion: This nationwide HIV-1 study of 4873 patient sequences highlights the increased diversity of HIV-1 subtypes within the Australian epidemic, as well as differences in transmission networks associated with these HIV-1 subtypes. These findings provide epidemiological insights not readily available using standard surveillance methods and can inform the development of effective public health strategies in the current paradigm of HIV prevention in Australia

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

HIV-1 full-genome phylogenetics of generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: impact of missing nucleotide characters in next-generation sequences.

Ratmann O, Wymant C, Colijn C, Danaviah S, Essex M, Frost SD, Gall A, Gaiseitsiwe S, Grabowski M, Gray R, Guindon S, von Haeseler A, Kaleebu P, Kendall M, Kozlov A, Manasa J, Minh BQ, Moyo S, Novitsky V, Nsubuga R, Pillay S, Quinn TC, Serwadda D, Ssemwanga D, Stamatakis A, Trifinopoulos J, Wawer M, Leigh Brown A, de Oliveira T, Kellam P, Pillay D, Fraser C.. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 May 25. doi: 10.1089/AID.2017.0061. [Epub ahead of print].

To characterize HIV-1 transmission dynamics in regions where the burden of HIV-1 is greatest, the 'Phylogenetics and Networks for Generalised HIV Epidemics in Africa' consortium (PANGEA-HIV) is sequencing full-genome viral isolates from across sub-Saharan Africa. We report the first 3985 PANGEA-HIV consensus sequences from four cohort sites (Rakai Community Cohort Study, n=2833; MRC/UVRI Uganda, n=701; Mochudi Prevention Project, n=359; Africa Health Research Institute Resistance Cohort, n=92). Next-generation sequencing success rates varied: more than 80% of the viral genome from the gag to the nef genes could be determined for all sequences from South Africa, 75% of sequences from Mochudi, 60% of sequences from MRC/UVRI Uganda, and 22% of sequences from Rakai. Partial sequencing failure was primarily associated with low viral load, increased for amplicons closer to the 3' end of the genome, was not associated with subtype diversity except HIV-1 subtype D, and remained significantly associated with sampling location after controlling for other factors. We assessed the impact of the missing data patterns in PANGEA-HIV sequences on phylogeny reconstruction in simulations. We found a threshold in terms of taxon sampling below which the patchy distribution of missing characters in next-generation sequences has an excess negative impact on the accuracy of HIV-1 phylogeny reconstruction, which is attributable to tree reconstruction artifacts that accumulate when branches in viral trees are long. The large number of PANGEA-HIV sequences provides unprecedented opportunities for evaluating HIV-1 transmission dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa and identifying prevention opportunities. Molecular epidemiological analyses of these data must proceed cautiously because sequence sampling remains below the identified threshold and a considerable negative impact of missing characters on phylogeny reconstruction is expected.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

 

Africa, Asia, Europe, Northern America, Oceania
Afghanistan, Angola, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China, Comoros, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Jamaica, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Tajikistan, Togo, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United Republic of Tanzania, United States of America, Uzbekistan, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe
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Key populations need so much more than HIV-specific services – involve them at every stage of planning and programming

Editor’s notes: This month sees a welcome set of papers covering female sex workers in West Africa; gay men and other men who have sex with men in the Middle East and in East Africa; people who inject drugs in the USA and eastern Europe.

Sex work is legal in Cote d’Ivoire although soliciting and pandering are criminalized, which creates legal barriers to practicing sex work.  Legalization does not necessarily prevent widespread abuse of power. Lyons and colleagues recruited 466 female sex workers in Abidjan through a respondent driven sampling approach.  A structured interview and rapid HIV test was performed.  Around 11% of the women were found to be living with HIV and it is clear that there are large unmet needs for HIV-specific services.  Only one quarter of those living with HIV reported that they knew their status and of these, only a few were already taking ART.  However, the focus of this study was on violence, both physical and sexual, which was alarmingly common, with around 54% of women reporting physical violence and 43% sexual violence.  The violence was most often perpetrated by spouses and boyfriends as well as by paying customers.  Other sex workers, pimps or managers and uniformed officers were also responsible for violence, both physical and sexual.  16% of women said that they had been tortured.  Collecting reliable data on sensitive areas with vulnerable populations is challenging.  The sampling method may introduce biases, and the interviews may lead to reported behaviours to “please” the interviewer.  However, this study included major efforts to work with the community of sex workers and their networks, and considerable trust has been built, so the results seem credible.  The authors call for structural interventions and policy reforms that have little to do with HIV directly, but would lead to an environment where HIV and other harms were greatly reduced.  There is also a direct need to ensure that sex workers have good access to HIV and other sexual and reproductive health services.

People who inject drugs also have many needs besides HIV services.  In the USA, the number of people who inject drugs is increasing.  This has led to a rising number of deaths from opioid overdose (around 30 000 in 2014), as well as increased HIV transmission, which makes the headlines of the news, when it occurs in settings where HIV is otherwise rare.  Cost-effective HIV prevention programmes for people who inject drugs are essential to the long-term health outcomes for this population and other high-risk groups in the USA.  Bernard and colleagues used a mathematical model and economic analysis to identify the most cost-effective interventions for HIV prevention programmes for people who inject drugs in the USA.

The authors found that under many likely assumptions about potential scale up, the best buy was always to provide opioid agonist therapy, which reduces injecting frequency and results in multiple, immediate quality-of-life improvements.  Needle and syringe exchange programmes are less expensive, but in these models produced fewer benefits, making them the next most cost-effective intervention, alone or in combination. PrEP was not likely to be cost-effective in this population except in the very highest risk settings.  This is in line with the values and preference expressed by many people who use drugs around the world.  The priority should be for “standard” harm reduction approaches, which will reduce HIV transmission, but have far wider benefits on the health and well-being of drug users and their communities.

Relatively little research is carried out with key populations in the Middle East.  Heimer and colleagues also used respondent driven sampling (with the same potential biases as above) to recruit 292 men who have sex with men in Beirut.  Although one quarter of the participants had been born in Syria and moved recently to Lebanon, the sampling method does reduce the precision of this estimate.  Of 36 people living with HIV identified, 32 were on HIV treatment, which is encouraging.  If the 32 on treatment were virally suppressed, the prevalence of “infectious HIV” in the survey was around 1.4%.  As we move forward into the viral load era, notions of risk for sexual behaviour will change, and we need to think about explicit descriptions such as “condomless sex” rather than simply referring to “unprotected sex”.  As stated above, the benefits of condoms for other sexually transmitted infections as well as for HIV need to be emphasized and the full range of ARV-based prevention made available in order to minimize the epidemic of HIV among gay men and other men who have sex with men in Lebanon and beyond.

The dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Ukraine are shifting.  Increasingly sexual transmission is becoming more common, and transmission through injecting drug use reducing.  Fearnhill and colleagues’ study of phylogenetics and recent infections among 876 newly diagnosed people living with HIV in Kiev highlights these trends.  The study also demonstrates plenty of uncertainty and suggests that the stigma associated with both injecting drug use and with gay men and other men having sex with men may lead to significant under-reporting of both in traditional epidemiological surveillance.  Although phylogenetics cannot prove misclassification, it is highly suggestive when large clusters of HIV from known gay men and other men who have sex with men include no women, but do include other men, who self-report to be heterosexual.  Transmission was most common among gay men and other men who have sex with men, and from those with recent infections.  HIV strains from women often cluster with those from people who inject drugs.  In a complex and dynamic environment with overlapping risk factors for HIV infection, phylogenetics adds a useful lens through which to examine what is happening.  Yet again, the challenge is to translate more granular understanding of the epidemics into clear public health policy and practice.

What do men who have sex with men in Kenya think about participating in HIV prevention research, such as a vaccine trial?  Doshi and colleagues used a social network-based approach to conduct in-depth interviews with 70 gay men and other men who have sex with men.  Here is what some of them said:

“He [the potential study participant] keeps hearing there is a research [study] that is starting, that there is money – one thousand or two, three thousand – he will run for the money…because it is someone’s life you have to be sure of what is going on…. You run for the better option because research comes in every type and researchers are everywhere in town.”

“Ok, you know most of the research coming to Kenya starts with MSM. Those are the ones that are tested on first so if there are side effects, those will be the first victims”

“It will benefit many of us…on my side…because sometimes I’m drunk I go out and meet people and they tell me they do not use condom…or… I’m drunk, I don’t know myself and I have already come to the bed with someone. Even I don’t know what he will do to me, if he will do me with a condom or if he will do me without a condom. Now the [HIV] vaccine…will be beneficial to me and the whole community”

This is a rich paper, giving insights into the reasons that people do or do not want to participate in vaccine trials.  It raises plenty of ethical questions about the balance between self-interest, altruism, coercion and consent.  It is encouraging that on the whole most participants saw the potential benefits to the wider community and would consider volunteering their time despite the associated risks.  Their perceptions were also coloured by previous research studies and how researchers had met their responsibilities for the care and well-being of their participants.  A good advertisement for the UNAIDS-AVAC Good Participatory Practice guidance!

Physical and sexual violence affecting female sex workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: prevalence, and the relationship with the work environment, HIV, and access to health services

Lyons CE, Grosso A, Drame FM, Ketende S, Diouf D, Ba I, Shannon K, Ezouatchi R, Bamba A, Kouame A, Baral S. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2017 May 1;75(1):9-17. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000001310.

Background: Violence is a human rights violation, and an important measure in understanding HIV among female sex workers (FSW). However, limited data exist regarding correlates of violence among FSW in Côte d'Ivoire. Characterizing prevalence and determinants of violence and the relationship with structural risks for HIV can inform development and implementation of comprehensive HIV prevention and treatment programs.

Methods: FSW > 18 years were recruited through respondent driven sampling (RDS) in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. In total, 466 participants completed a socio-behavioral questionnaire and HIV testing. Prevalence estimates of violence were calculated using crude and RDS-adjusted estimates. Relationships between structural risk factors and violence were analyzed using χ2 tests and multivariable logistic regression.

Results: The prevalence of physical violence was 53.6% (250/466), and sexual violence was 43.2% (201/465) among FSW in this study. Police refusal of protection was associated with physical (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR]: 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7 to 4.4) and sexual violence (aOR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.9 to 4.8). Blackmail was associated with physical (aOR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5 to 4.2) and sexual violence (aOR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.5 to 4.0). Physical violence was associated with fear (aOR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.3 to 3.1) and avoidance of seeking health services (aOR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.5 to 3.8).

Conclusions: Violence is prevalent among FSW in Abidjan and associated with features of the work environment and access to care. These relationships highlight layers of rights violations affecting FSW, underscoring the need for structural interventions and policy reforms to improve work environments, and to address police harassment, stigma, and rights violations to reduce violence and improve access to HIV interventions.

Abstract

Estimation of the cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention portfolios for people who inject drugs in the United States: a model-based analysis

Bernard CL, Owens DK, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Brandeau ML. PLoS Med. 2017 May 24;14(5):e1002312 doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002312. eCollection 2017 May.

Background: The risks of HIV transmission associated with the opioid epidemic make cost-effective programs for people who inject drugs (PWID) a public health priority. Some of these programs have benefits beyond prevention of HIV-a critical consideration given that injection drug use is increasing across most United States demographic groups. To identify high-value HIV prevention program portfolios for US PWID, we consider combinations of four interventions with demonstrated efficacy: opioid agonist therapy (OAT), needle and syringe programs (NSPs), HIV testing and treatment (Test & Treat), and oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

Methods and Findings: We adapted an empirically calibrated dynamic compartmental model and used it to assess the discounted costs (in 2015 US dollars), health outcomes (HIV infections averted, change in HIV prevalence, and discounted quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the four prevention programs, considered singly and in combination over a 20-y time horizon. We obtained epidemiologic, economic, and health utility parameter estimates from the literature, previously published models, and expert opinion. We estimate that expansions of OAT, NSPs, and Test & Treat implemented singly up to 50% coverage levels can be cost-effective relative to the next highest coverage level (low, medium, and high at 40%, 45%, and 50%, respectively) and that OAT, which we assume to have immediate and direct health benefits for the individual, has the potential to be the highest value investment, even under scenarios where it prevents fewer infections than other programs. Although a model-based analysis can provide only estimates of health outcomes, we project that, over 20 y, 50% coverage with OAT could avert up to 22 000 (95% CI: 5200, 46 000) infections and cost US$18 000 (95% CI: US$14 000, US$24 000) per QALY gained, 50% NSP coverage could avert up to 35 000 (95% CI: 8900, 43 000) infections and cost US$25 000 (95% CI: US$7000, US$76 000) per QALY gained, 50% Test & Treat coverage could avert up to 6700 (95% CI: 1200, 16 000) infections and cost US$27 000 (95% CI: US$15 000, US$48 000) per QALY gained, and 50% PrEP coverage could avert up to 37 000 (22 000, 58 000) infections and cost US$300 000 (95% CI: US$162 000, US$667 000) per QALY gained. When coverage expansions are allowed to include combined investment with other programs and are compared to the next best intervention, the model projects that scaling OAT coverage up to 50%, then scaling NSP coverage to 50%, then scaling Test & Treat coverage to 50% can be cost-effective, with each coverage expansion having the potential to cost less than US$50 000 per QALY gained relative to the next best portfolio. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, 59% of portfolios prioritized the addition of OAT and 41% prioritized the addition of NSPs, while PrEP was not likely to be a priority nor a cost-effective addition. Our findings are intended to be illustrative, as data on achievable coverage are limited and, in practice, the expansion scenarios considered may exceed feasible levels. We assumed independence of interventions and constant returns to scale. Extensive sensitivity analyses allowed us to assess parameter sensitivity, but the use of a dynamic compartmental model limited the exploration of structural sensitivities.

Conclusions: We estimate that OAT, NSPs, and Test & Treat, implemented singly or in combination, have the potential to effectively and cost-effectively prevent HIV in US PWID. PrEP is not likely to be cost-effective in this population, based on the scenarios we evaluated. While local budgets or policy may constrain feasible coverage levels for the various interventions, our findings suggest that investments in combined prevention programs can substantially reduce HIV transmission and improve health outcomes among PWID.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

HIV risk, prevalence, and access to care among men who have sex with men in Lebanon

Heimer R, Barbour R, Khoury D, Crawford FW, Shebl FM, Aaraj E, Khoshnood K. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Jun 29 doi: 10.1089/AID.2016.0326. [Epub ahead of print].

Objective: Little is known about HIV prevalence and risk among men who have sex with men in much of the Middle East, including Lebanon. Recent national level surveillance has suggested an increase in HIV prevalence concentrated among men in Lebanon. We undertook a biobehavioral study to provide direct evidence for the spread of HIV.

Design: MSM were recruited by respondent driven sampling, interviewed, and offered HIV testing anonymously at sites located in Beirut, Lebanon from October 2014 through February 2015. The interview questionnaire was designed to obtain information on participants' sociodemographic situation, sexual behaviors, alcohol and drug use, health, HIV testing and care, experiences of stigma and discrimination. Individuals not reporting an HIV diagnosis were offered optional, anonymous HIV testing.

Results: Among the 292 MSM recruited, we identified 36 cases of HIV (12.3%). A quarter of the MSM were born in Syria and recently arrived in Lebanon. Condom use was uncommon; 65% reported unprotected sex with other men. Group sex encounters were reported by 22% of participants. Among the 32 individuals already aware of their infection, 30 were in treatment and receiving antiretroviral therapy.

Conclusions: HIV prevalence was substantially increased over past estimates. Efforts to control future increases will have to focus on reducing specific risk behaviors and experienced stigma and abuse, especially among Syrian refugees.

Abstract

A phylogenetic analysis of HIV-1 sequences in Kiev: findings among key populations

Fearnhill E, Gourlay A, Malyuta R, Simmons R, Ferns RB, Grant P, Nastouli E, Karnets I, Murphy G, Medoeva A, Kruglov Y, Yurchenko A, Porter K; CASCADE Collaboration in EuroCoord. Clin Infec Dis 2017 May 29: doi: 10.1093/cid/cix499. [Epub ahead of print].

Background: The HIV epidemic in Ukraine has been driven by a rapid rise among people who inject drugs, but recent studies have shown an increase through sexual transmission.

Methods: Protease and RT sequences from 876 new HIV diagnoses (April 2013 - March 2015) in Kiev were linked to demographic data. We constructed phylogenetic trees for 794 subtype A1 and 64 subtype B sequences and identified factors associated with transmission clustering. Clusters were defined as ≥ 2 sequences, ≥ 80% local branch support and maximum genetic distance of all sequence pairs in the cluster ≤ 2.5%. Recent infection was determined through the LAg avidity EIA assay. Sequences were analysed for transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations.

Results: 30% of subtype A1 and 66% of subtype B sequences clustered. Large clusters (maximum 11 sequences) contained mixed risk groups. In univariate analysis, clustering was significantly associated with subtype B compared to A1 (OR 4.38 [95% CI 2.56-7.50]), risk group (OR 5.65 [3.27-9.75]) for men who have sex with men compared to heterosexual males, recent, compared to long-standing, infection (OR 2.72 [1.64-4.52]), reported sex work contact (OR 1.93 [1.07-3.47]) and younger age groups compared to age ≥36 (OR 1.83 [1.10-3.05] for age ≤25). Females were associated with lower odds of clustering than heterosexual males (OR 0.49 [0.31-0.77]). In multivariate analysis, risk group, subtype and age group were independently associated with clustering (p<0.001, p=0.007 and p=0.033). 18 sequences (2.1%) indicated evidence of TDR.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest high levels of transmission and bridging between risk groups.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Contextualizing willingness to participate: recommendations for engagement, recruitment & enrolment of Kenyan MSM in future HIV prevention trials

Doshi M, Avery L, Kaddu RP, Gichuhi M, Gakii G, du Plessis E, Dutta S, Khan S, Kimani J, Lorway RR. BMC Public Health. 2017 May 18;17(1):469 doi: 10.1186/s12889-017-4395-4.

Background: The HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) continues to expand globally. The addition of an efficacious, prophylactic vaccine to combination prevention offers immense hope, particularly in low- and middle- income countries which bear the greatest global impact. However, in these settings, there is a paucity of vaccine preparedness studies that specifically pertain to MSM. Our study is the first vaccine preparedness study among MSM and female sex workers (FSWs) in Kenya. In this paper, we explore willingness of Kenyan MSM to participate in HIV vaccine efficacy trials. In addition to individual and socio-cultural motivators and barriers that influence willingness to participate (WTP), we explore the associations or linkages that participants draw between their experiences with or knowledge of medical research both generally and within the context of HIV/AIDS, their perceptions of a future HIV vaccine and their willingness to participate in HIV vaccine trials.

Methods: Using a social network-based approach, we employed snowball sampling to recruit MSM into the study from Kisumu, Mombasa, and Nairobi. A field team consisting of seven community researchers conducted in-depth interviews with a total of 70 study participants. A coding scheme for transcribed and translated data was developed and the data was then analysed thematically.

Results: Most participants felt that an HIV vaccine would bring a number of benefits to self, as well as to MSM communities, including quelling personal fears related to HIV acquisition and reducing/eliminating stigma and discrimination shouldered by their community. Willingness to participate in HIV vaccine efficacy trials was highly motivated by various forms of altruism. Specific researcher responsibilities centred on safe-guarding the rights and well-being of participants were also found to govern WTP, as were reflections on the acceptability of a future preventive HIV vaccine.

Conclusion: Strategies for engagement of communities and recruitment of trial volunteers for HIV vaccine efficacy trials should not only be grounded in and informed by investigations into individual and socio-cultural factors that impact WTP, but also by explorations of participants' existing experiences with or knowledge of medical research as well as attitudes and acceptance towards a future HIV vaccine.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

 

Africa, Asia, Northern America
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H*V – can we do better for HIV, HBV and HCV if we all work together?

Editor’s notes: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) signal a major shift in the way that the United Nations and her development partners aim to shape the next decades.  Whereas the Millennium Development Goals reinforced specific programmes for HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, the SDGs call for a more integrated approach to health and well-being and encourage integration and synergy wherever it makes sense.  Hepatitis is one obvious area in which better collaboration and coordination could yield benefits.  Hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) viruses are both more common in some of the populations most affected by HIV.  HCV can now be cured with drugs that derive directly from the HIV portfolio, while some ARVs have a direct effect on HBV.

Rwanda is one of the first countries in sub-Saharan Africa to set up a control programme for viral hepatitis, building on the infrastructure established for HIV. Umutesi and colleagues report on results of screening almost 120 000 people living with HIV who entered care for markers of HBV and HCV.  Around 5000 people (4.3%) were identified with a positive Hepatitis B surface antigen and a similar number (4.6%) were found to have antibodies against HCV.  There was marked variation geographically with a range by district from 2%-11% for HBV, higher in more urban areas and in men.  For HCV the range was from 3%-8% and was higher in more rural areas, and also in men.  This study provides a good platform to estimate numbers of people who might need treatment and to plan the next steps in an integrated programme.

People who inject drugs are particularly severely affected by HCV, and so co-infection with both HIV and HCV is common in areas where both viruses circulate.  Some estimates from Ho Chi Minh City in Viet Nam suggest that more than 40% of people who inject drugs are living with HIV and that essentially all of these people are also co-infected with HCV.  Birger R and colleagues developed a mathematical model to explore the likely impact of interventions aimed at HIV, HCV or broad harm reduction [with methadone maintenance treatment (MMT)] on future mortality and incidence of both infections.  While ART scale up reduces HIV incidence and mortality, it has no effect on HCV.  MMT is effective at reducing incidence of both HIV and HCV (and has morbidity and mortality benefits beyond these viruses).  However, MMT does not help the many people already living with HCV and so has little effect on HCV related mortality. So the model is clear that treatment for HCV needs to be an important part of a combined programme and that we urgently need to find ways to reduce the price of directly acting antivirals if we are to save more Vietnamese lives.

Haldane and colleagues have also focused on this intersection between HIV and substance use services.  They carried out a systematic review to understand the models and implications of integration of service delivery.  The authors expand their typology of integration models considering the point of entry of the client, and the degree to which services are co-located and delivered.  Integration can be considered as “clinical”, “service” or “systems”.  The first two can operate at the micro or meso level meaning that individual staff can deal with both situations, or that staff are trained to provide appropriate referrals.  Systems level integration operates at a macro level and implies that programmes for each service make collaborations and coordinate in ways that may affect staffing, funding and fragmentation of services. Although there are theoretical advantages to coordination and integration (as shown by the mathematical model above), there are few good empirical studies of integrated service delivery reported outside the USA.  The authors considered that most of the intervention studies had a risk of bias in the interpretation of their impact, although all demonstrated positive changes in outcomes.  Furthermore, almost all the studies focussed on integration at the clinic or individual provider level (meso or micro) rather than addressing the larger systemic challenges that we need to consider.  If we are to achieve the ideals laid out in the Sustainable Development Goals, we will need to overcome some of these systemic challenges, particularly for populations that are criminalized and marginalized by many of the public services.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C infection in persons living with HIV enrolled in care in Rwanda.

Umutesi J, Simmons B, Makuza JD, Dushimiyimana D, Mbituyumuremyi A, Uwimana JM, Ford N, Mills EJ, Nsanzimana S. BMC Infect Dis. 2017 May 2;17(1):315. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2422-9.

Background: Hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) are important causes of morbidity and mortality in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The burden of these co-infections in sub-Saharan Africa is still unclear. We estimated the prevalence of the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and hepatitis C antibody (HCVAb) among HIV-infected individuals in Rwanda and identified factors associated with infection.

Methods: Between January 2016 and June 2016, we performed systematic screening for HBsAg and HCVAb among HIV-positive individuals enrolled at public and private HIV facilities across Rwanda. Results were analyzed to determine marker prevalence and variability by demographic factors.

Results: Overall, among 117 258 individuals tested, the prevalence of HBsAg and HCVAb was 4.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] (4.2-4.4) and 4.6% (95% CI 4.5-4.7) respectively; 182 (0.2%) HIV+ individuals were co-infected with HBsAg and HCVAb. Prevalence was higher in males (HBsAg, 5.4% [5.1-5.6] vs. 3.7% [3.5-3.8]; HCVAb, 5.0% [4.8-5.2] vs. 4.4% [4.3-4.6]) and increased with age; HCVAb prevalence was significantly higher in people aged ≥65 years (17.8% [16.4-19.2]). Prevalence varied geographically.

Conclusion: HBV and HCV co-infections are common among HIV-infected individuals in Rwanda. It is important that viral hepatitis prevention and treatment activities are scaled-up to control further transmission and reduce the burden in this population. Particular efforts should be made to conduct targeted screening of males and the older population. Further assessment is required to determine rates of HBV and HCV chronicity among HIV-infected individuals and identify effective strategies to link individuals to care and treatment.

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The impact of HCV therapy in a high HIV-HCV prevalence population: A modeling study on people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Birger RB, Le T, Kouyos RD, Grenfell BT, Hallett TB. PLoS One. 2017 May 11;12(5):e0177195. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177195. eCollection 2017.

Background: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) coinfection is a major global health problem especially among people who inject drugs (PWID), with significant clinical implications. Mathematical models have been used to great effect to shape HIV care, but few have been proposed for HIV/HCV.

Methods: We constructed a deterministic compartmental ODE model that incorporated layers for HIV disease progression, HCV disease progression and PWID demography. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and Methadone Maintenance Therapy (MMT) scale-ups were modeled as from 2016 and projected forward 10 years. HCV treatment roll-out was modeled beginning in 2026, after a variety of MMT scale-up scenarios, and projected forward 10 years.

Results: Our results indicate that scale-up of ART has a major impact on HIV though not on HCV burden. MMT scale-up has an impact on incidence of both infections. HCV treatment roll-out has a measurable impact on reductions of deaths, increasing multifold the mortality reductions afforded by just ART/MMT scale-ups.

Conclusion: HCV treatment roll-out can have major and long-lasting effects on averting PWID deaths on top of those averted by ART/MMT scale-up. Efficient intervention scale-up of HCV alongside HIV interventions is critical in Vietnam.

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Integrating HIV and substance use services: a systematic review

Haldane V, Cervero-Liceras F, Chuah FL, Ong SE, Murphy G, Sigfrid L, Watt N, Balabanova D, Hogarth S, Maimaris W, Buse K, Piot P, McKee M, Perel P, Legido-Quigley H. Journal of the International AIDS Society. 2017 May 30;20(1).http://dx.doi.org/10.7448/IAS.20.1.21585.

Introduction: Substance use is an important risk factor for HIV, with both concentrated in certain vulnerable and marginalized populations. Although their management differs, there may be opportunities to integrate services for substance use and HIV. In this paper we systematically review evidence from studies that sought to integrate care for people living with HIV and substance use problems.

Methods: Studies were included if they evaluated service integration for substance use and HIV. We searched multiple databases from inception until October 2015. Articles were screened independently by two reviewers and assessed for risk of bias.

Results and discussion: 11 057 records were identified, with 7616 after removal of duplicates. After screening titles and abstracts, 51 met the inclusion criteria. Integration models were categorized by location (HIV, substance use and other facilities), level of integration from micro (integrated care delivered to individuals) to macro (system level integrations) and degree of integration from least (screening and counselling only) to most (care for HIV, substance use and/or other illnesses at the same facility). Most reported descriptive or cohort studies; in four randomized control trials integrated activities improved patient outcomes. There is potential for integrating services at all facility types, including mobile health services. While services offering screening only can achieve synergies, there are benefits from delivering integrated treatment for HIV and substance use, including ease of referral to other mental health and social services.

Conclusions: Our review used a wide range of databases and conference archives to increase representation of papers from low- and middle-income countries. Limitations include the overrepresentation of studies from the United States, and the descriptive nature of the majority of papers. The evidence reviewed shows that greater integration offers important benefits in both patient and service outcomes but further research and outcome reporting is needed to better understand innovative and holistic care models at the complex intersection of substance use and HIV services.

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Africa, Asia, Europe, Northern America
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How do we know which activities make a difference to HIV prevention?

Editor’s notes: In order to be fairly certain that an intervention is responsible for changes in HIV or HIV-related behaviours, the gold standard is randomization. This allows for fair comparisons between groups, since factors that might alter the outcomes will be more or less equally balanced between the study groups.  This is true whether such confounding factors are expected, but also importantly, even those factors that are unknown, unexpected and unmeasured will also be balanced between the arms. 

A second key determinant of high quality research is to use an approach that maximizes full engagement and follow-up of participants in the study.  One such approach that is widely recognized is to use Good Participatory Practice.  

Rhodes and colleagues study condom promotion and HIV testing among the Hispanic/Latino community of gay men and other men who have sex with men in North Carolina, USA.  Although gay men and other men who have sex with men represent approximately 4% of the adult male population in the United States of America, they account for more than 80% of new HIV infections among men.  Around one quarter of gay men and other men who have sex with men are Hispanic or Latino.  The authors therefore wanted to use research to make a difference to the HIV burden of the Hispanic/Latino gay men and other men who have sex with men community in North Carolina, USA.  They found that despite the impact of HIV on Hispanic/ Latino gay men and other men who have sex with men, they were only able to identify one evidence-based behavioural HIV prevention programme focussed on this population.

The authors used an extensive community based participatory research partnership, whose members represented the Hispanic/ Latino gay men and other men who have sex with men community, AIDS service organizations, Hispanic/Latino-serving community organizations, and universities to develop, implement, and evaluate a Spanish-language, small group intervention designed to increase condom use and HIV testing among Hispanic/Latino gay men and other men who have sex with men (HOLA en Grupos).

304 participants were randomly allocated to the HOLA en Grupos intervention, or to a general health education comparison intervention having the same number of sessions (4) and duration (16 hours in total) that focussed on prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers; diabetes; high cholesterol; cardiovascular disease; and alcohol misuse. These topics for the control group were identified on the basis of identified needs and priorities of Hispanic/Latino gay men and other men who have sex with men.

HOLA en Grupos is grounded on social cognitive theory, empowerment education, and traditional Hispanic/Latino cultural values and includes four interactive modules of four hours each delivered in groups.  Participants in both intervention and control arms received reimbursement for their time, certificates of completion and meals and a celebration at the completion of the course.  In other words this was an intensive intervention that might be hard to replicate in most settings, but it follows very high standards both for developing and conducting the research and also for determining the impact of the intervention.

The intervention was associated with a large effect on both condom usage (four-fold higher in the intervention arm than the control) and HIV test uptake (an astonishing 14-fold higher, reflecting the relatively low testing rate in the control group).

A major limitation in many HIV prevention studies, including this one, is that the outcome is based on reported behaviour.  The challenge is that the real outcome of interest, which is new HIV infections, is relatively rare in almost all communities so that studies have to be huge and expensive, and the large majority of participants in both intervention and control arms do not in fact acquire HIV.  This is in contrast to most studies of treatment, where there are clearly defined biological, standardized measures which many or all participants are likely to reach.  Nonetheless, there are many examples of studies that find changes in reported behaviour that are not associated with biological markers of such change (such as incidence of HIV or other sexually transmitted infections, or pregnancy). 

There are also many observational or ecological studies that report changes in new HIV infections but that cannot truly say why the number of infections fell and whether the interventions used in the study were responsible for the changes.  For example Nwokolo and colleagues report in a short research letter on the dramatic decline in new HIV diagnoses in the large London clinic where they work.  New infections in that clinic, and in fact in other large clinics in London, have dropped by a remarkable 40% from 2015 to 2016, as originally reported in the popular science press before any scientific publication or presentation. The authors of the research letter are suitably cautious about how to account for the impressive decline.  Various systems have been improved over the past few years in this clinic to make it easier to have an HIV test and start treatment immediately.  However, most of the clinic team (and many other commentators) assume that it is also due to the rapid rise in the use of PrEP.  Although it is still not available through the UK National Health Service, the clinic has been at the forefront of encouraging gay men and other men who have sex with men who might benefit from PrEP to purchase it from on-line pharmacies.  The clinic then provides the appropriate monitoring and follow up to ensure that their clients get the best possible PrEP service given the current constraints.  Whatever the cause, we should be celebrating the rapid fall in new HIV infections across London, which is home to a substantial proportion of the new HIV infections in the UK.

The challenges of demonstrating evidence of effectiveness for HIV prevention is also felt among black women in the USA.  Although they have the highest burden of HIV among women in the USA, the incidence rates are such that a traditional randomized trial design would need to be huge, and consequently hugely expensive.  Adimora and colleagues consider whether an alternative trial design might be to use data from high HIV incidence settings and then to develop proxies of protection, such as the concentration of a PrEP medicine to infer whether black women are protected.  An alternative that has been proposed for men who have sex with men would be to look for other markers of high risk, such as sexually transmitted infections, reported partners, age, and substance use and estimate the likely risk of HIV acquisition in the absence of PrEP from these parameters.  Then the observed incidence could be compared to this modelled counterfactual, much as was done in the open label extension of the Partners PrEP study in Kenyan and Ugandan sero-different couples.  However, translating risk factors for infection across populations, and even continents when there is such heterogeneity in risk of infection is not at all straightforward.  So there is still plenty to think about and no clear answers yet!

A useful addition to the tool box for designing studies and assessing the effectiveness of interventions, would be better tools for measuring recent infection.  There are several assays all with differing characteristics but increasingly these differences and how they interact with different clades of HIV are becoming clear.  Key determinants for each assay are the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) estimate (which does seem to vary by clade) and the false recency rate (FRR) which needs to be less than 2% to be considered useful.  Hargrove and colleagues used three different assays to test samples from 101 women who seroconverted during the ZVITAMBO trial.  The MDRI measured using standard cut-off points, were considerably shorter than those published for the general population.  The authors point out that changes in antibody properties among women who have recently given birth or other unspecified physiological states, mean that incidence assays may give different results from those published and expected.  Yet more caution when comparing incidence estimates between studies.  As an endpoint in a comparison between two groups in the same population, the assays are still attractive. Although, given typical MDRIs of around six to nine months, these assays will still need to be embedded in very large samples to give reliable estimates of incidence and statistically significant differences between groups.

This month saw the production of a useful supplement on many aspects of how data from different sources, including incidence assays are used to inform the sophisticated models on which so much HIV planning, programming and financing is based.  An example is Mahiane and colleagues’ paper on the development of a new tool to fit existing programme data into the spectrum suite of models in order to estimate incidence.

Finally in this section, for those who are keen on laboratory studies, Richardson-Harman and colleagues describe the current state of ex-vivo challenge models for assessing potential candidates as microbicides.  In these models, biopsies of rectal, cervical or vaginal tissue, taken during other procedures, or from volunteers, are kept alive in the laboratory.  The tissues can then be challenged with HIV in the presence or absence of potential microbicide products.  The current model works best for rectal tissues, in which infection occurs promptly and consistently, so that the effect of a microbicide can clearly be seen by a reduction in the production of HIV p24 antigen.  However, for cervical and vaginal tissues, the infection (in the absence of any microbicide) was less consistent, slower and lasted longer making it less easy to determine statistical differences between those tissues with microbicide and those without.  Further work of this sort may help to streamline the choice of microbicide or PrEP products that can most sensibly be taken out of the laboratory and into the (almost) real world of clinical trials.

Small-group randomized controlled trial to increase condom use and HIV testing among Hispanic/Latino gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men.

Rhodes SD, Alonzo J, Mann L, Song EY, Tanner AE, Arellano JE, Rodriguez-Celedon R, Garcia M, Freeman A, Reboussin BA, Painter TM. Am J Public Health. 2017 Jun;107(6):969-976. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2017.303814. Epub 2017 Apr 20.

Objectives: To evaluate the HOLA en Grupos intervention, a Spanish-language small-group behavioral HIV prevention intervention designed to increase condom use and HIV testing among Hispanic/Latino gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men.

Methods: In 2012 to 2015, we recruited and randomized 304 Hispanic/Latino men who have sex with men, aged 18 to 55 years in North Carolina, to the 4-session HOLA en Grupos intervention or an attention-equivalent general health education comparison intervention. Participants completed structured assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Follow-up retention was 100%.

Results: At follow-up, relative to comparison participants, HOLA en Grupos participants reported increased consistent condom use during the past 3 months (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.2, 7.9; P < .001) and HIV testing during the past 6 months (AOR = 13.8; 95% CI = 7.6, 25.3; P < .001). HOLA en Grupos participants also reported increased knowledge of HIV (P < .001) and sexually transmitted infections (P < .001); condom use skills (P < .001), self-efficacy (P < .001), expectancies (P < .001), and intentions (P < .001); sexual communication skills (P < .01); and decreased fatalism (P < .001).

Conclusions: The HOLA en Grupos intervention is efficacious for reducing HIV risk behaviors among Hispanic/Latino men who have sex with men.

Abstract access 

Not just PrEP: other reasons for London's HIV decline.

Nwokolo N, Whitlock G, McOwan A. Lancet HIV. 2017 Apr;4(4):e153. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(17)30044-9.

The reduction in HIV diagnoses in London in 2016 is attributed to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We believe that the causes of the 42% decline seen at our clinic are likely to be multifactorial. 56 Dean Street diagnoses one in four of London's HIV cases, 50% of whom have incident infection (ie, within 4 months of infection). Because of this, and following the results of the START study, we actively recommend treatment at, or close to, diagnosis, reducing the risk of transmission in people who would otherwise be highly infectious.

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US black women and HIV prevention: time for new approaches to clinical trials.

Adimora AA, Cole SR, Eron JJ Clin Infect Dis. 2017 Apr 5. doi: 10.1093/cid/cix313. [Epub ahead of print]. 

Black women bear the highest burden of HIV infection among US women. Tenofovir/ emtricitabine HIV prevention trials among women in Africa have yielded varying results. Ideally, a randomized controlled trial (RCT) among US women would provide data for guidelines for US women's HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis use. However, even among US black women at high risk for HIV infection, sample size requirements for an RCT with HIV incidence as its outcome are prohibitively high. We propose to circumvent this large sample size requirement by evaluating relationships between HIV incidence and drug concentrations measured among participants in traditional phase 3 trials in high incidence settings - and then applying these observations to drug concentrations measured among at risk individuals in lower incidence settings, such as US black women. This strategy could strengthen the evidence base to enable black women to fully benefit from prevention research advances and decrease racial disparities in HIV rates.

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Heightened HIV antibody responses in postpartum women as exemplified by recent infection assays: implications for incidence estimates.

Hargrove JW, van Schalkwyk C, Humphrey JH, Mutasa K, Ntozini R, Owen SM, Masciotra S, Parekh BS, Duong YT, Dobbs T, Kilmarx PH, Gonese E. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 May 24. doi: 10.1089/AID.2016.0319. [Epub ahead of print].

Laboratory assays that identify recent HIV infections are important for assessing impacts of interventions aimed at reducing HIV incidence. Kinetics of HIV humoral responses can vary with inherent assay properties, and between HIV subtypes, populations, and physiological states. They are important in determining mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for antibody-based assays for detecting recent HIV infections. We determined MDRIs for multi-subtype peptide representing subtypes B, E and D (BED)-capture enzyme immunoassay, limiting antigen (LAg), and Bio-Rad Avidity Incidence (BRAI) assays for 101 seroconverting postpartum women, recruited in Harare from 1997 to 2000 during the Zimbabwe Vitamin A for Mothers and Babies trial, comparing them against published MDRIs estimated from seroconverting cases in the general population. We also compared MDRIs for women who seroconverted either during the first 9 months, or at later stages, postpartum. At cutoffs (C) of 0.8 for BED, 1.5 for LAg, and 40% for BRAI, estimated MDRIs for postpartum mothers were 192, 104, and 144 days, 33%, 32%, and 52% lower than published estimates of 287, 152 and 298 days, respectively, for clade C samples from general populations. Point estimates of MDRI values were 7%-19% shorter for women who seroconverted in the first 9 months postpartum than for those seroconverting later. MDRI values for three HIV incidence biomarkers are longer in the general population than among postpartum women, particularly those who recently gave birth, consistent with heightened immunological activation soon after birth. Our results provide a caution that MDRI may vary significantly between subjects in different physiological states.

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Improvements in Spectrum's fit to program data tool.

Mahiane SG, Marsh K, Grantham K, Crichlow S, Caceres K, Stover J.  AIDS. 2017 Apr;31 Suppl 1:S23-S30. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001359.

Objective: The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package (Glastonbury, Connecticut, USA) is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15-49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with program and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or people living with HIV and AIDS related deaths. This article describes development and application of the fit to program data (FPD) tool in Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS' 2016 estimates round.

Methods: In the FPD tool, HIV incidence trends are described as a simple or double logistic function. Function parameters are estimated from historical program data on newly reported HIV cases, people living with HIV or AIDS-related deaths. Inputs can be adjusted for proportions undiagnosed or misclassified deaths. Maximum likelihood estimation or minimum chi-squared distance methods are used to identify the best fitting curve. Asymptotic properties of the estimators from these fits are used to estimate uncertainty.

Results: The FPD tool was used to fit incidence for 62 countries in 2016. Maximum likelihood and minimum chi-squared distance methods gave similar results. A double logistic curve adequately described observed trends in all but four countries where a simple logistic curve performed better.

Conclusion: Robust HIV-related program and vital registration data are routinely available in many middle-income and high-income countries, whereas HIV seroprevalence surveillance and survey data may be scarce. In these countries, the FPD tool offers a simpler, improved approach to estimating HIV incidence trends.

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Analytical advances in the ex vivo challenge efficacy assay.

Richardson-Harman N, Parody R, Anton P, McGowan I, Doncel G, Thurman AR, Herrera C, Kordy K, Fox J, Tanner K, Swartz G, Dezzutti CS. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Apr;33(4):395-403. doi: 10.1089/AID.2016.0073. Epub 2016 Dec 16.

The ex vivo challenge assay is being increasingly used as an efficacy endpoint during early human clinical trials of HIV prevention treatments. There is no standard methodology for the ex vivo challenge assay, although the use of different data collection methods and analytical parameters may impact results and reduce the comparability of findings between trials. In this analysis, we describe the impact of data imputation methods, kit type, testing schedule and tissue type on variability, statistical power, and ex vivo HIV growth kinetics. Data were p24 antigen (pg/ml) measurements collected from clinical trials of candidate microbicides where rectal (n = 502), cervical (n = 88), and vaginal (n = 110) tissues were challenged with HIV-1BaL ex vivo. Imputation of missing data using a nonlinear mixed effect model was found to provide an improved fit compared to imputation using half the limit of detection. The rectal virus growth period was found to be earlier and of a relatively shorter duration than the growth period for cervical and vaginal tissue types. On average, only four rectal tissue challenge assays in each treatment and control group would be needed to find a one log difference in p24 to be significant (alpha = 0.05), but a larger sample size was predicted to be needed for either cervical (n = 21) or vaginal (n = 10) tissue comparisons. Overall, the results indicated that improvements could be made in the design and analysis of the ex vivo challenge assay to provide a more standardized and powerful assay to compare efficacy of microbicide products.

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Phylogenetics - powerful new tools tied to ethical imperatives for key populations

Editor’s notes: There are now well over half a million HIV isolates that have been sequenced and the data stored in public accessible Genbank.  A systematic review by Hassan AS and colleagues of the methods used to define phylogenetic trees and clusters within them demonstrates the importance of using the correct criteria for the hypothesis being tested. Most articles use the pol sequence, since this is what is sequenced for drug resistance testing.  Most analyses have been done using a phylogenetic approach that uses a probability to assess the likelihood that isolates are clustered, and so depends on the cut-off value chosen.  For example, a well-studied outbreak of HIV among drug users in Finland is clearly linked to an earlier outbreak in Sweden, but because the Finnish isolates were collected later, they had already diverged somewhat from the Swedish ones.  If the threshold was set too high, they would not be recognized to be part of the same outbreak.  However for active transmission chains, a high threshold is needed to avoid falsely linking isolates.  There is no consensus on what methods to use, so caution is needed when comparing different studies.

Mark Wainberg, Professor of Medicine and of Microbiology at McGill University and a giant of Canadian HIV science, passed away this month.  So, as a tribute to his work, we have chosen a study from the McGill AIDS Centre by Brenner BG and colleagues.  The team used phylogenetic analysis to classify pre-treatment HIV isolates from 3901 men who have sex with men in Quebec according to the likelihood of being an acute or recent infection and the likelihood of clustering with other isolates.  Over the period from 2002-2015, a larger and larger proportion of the infections in this population could be linked to larger clusters, particularly involving younger men and men with recent infection, many of whom did not know their HIV status.  At least 40% of the onward spread of the epidemic in Quebec can be ascribed to just thirty clusters, varying in size from 20–140 individuals.

Using phylogenetics to understand transmission patterns requires careful attention to ethics, confidentiality and stigmatization.  A study in South Korea by Ahn MY and colleagues aimed to define the risk factors for clustering within clusters among 143 people living with HIV in four cities.  In eight out of the nine clusters identified participants did not report the same risk factors. Clusters were small, eight pairs and one quartet.  In the two tightest clusters, where the isolates were indistinguishable on the sequences examined, one man stated that he had sex with women, but the paired isolate came from another man and in the other pair, both men chose not to disclose their risk factors.  With small studies where information can sometimes be inferred even when not disclosed, it is perhaps not surprising that more than half the participants chose not to report their risk factors.

Other phylogenetic studies this month have explored the evolution of HIV recombination and the spread of different clades in communities in North-Eastern Brazil [Delatorre E et al.] and China.  In the North-Eastern states of Brazil, 72% of HIV isolates were subtype B, but rare subtypes such as D (1%) and CRF02_AG (1%) appear to be spreading within the population rather than being introduced from outside. In China studies from Sichuan [Wang Y et al.], Yunnan [Li Y and colleagues] and Zhejiang [Wang H et al.] have shown new recombinant forms of HIV with elements that suggest that viruses from different countries in the region have combined.  The widening diversity of HIV brings challenges for vaccine development, and potentially for HIV assays, such as those for recent infection that may differ in their sensitivity and specificity between different sub-types.  Understanding the migration of people and their viruses could be useful for providing better services, but careful attention to messaging will be needed to prevent such data from being used to discriminate further against migrants.

The final phylogenetic paper this month also comes from China, where Hao M and colleagues reported a study of students living with HIV in Beijing. The study demonstrated that transmitted drug resistance is still low in this setting, with just 0.8% of 237 students having virus that was resistant to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors that form part of the backbone of first line treatment in China.  A further 1.3% has resistance to protease inhibitors that are used in second line treatment.

Defining HIV-1 transmission clusters based on sequence data: a systematic review and perspectives.

Hassan AS, Pybus OG, Sanders EJ, Albert J, Esbjörnsson J. AIDS. 2017 Mar 28. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001470. [Epub ahead of print]

Understanding HIV-1 transmission dynamics is relevant to both screening and intervention strategies of HIV-1 infection. Commonly, HIV-1 transmission chains are determined based on sequence similarity assessed either directly from a sequence alignment or by inferring a phylogenetic tree. This review is aimed at both nonexperts interested in understanding and interpreting studies of HIV-1transmission, and experts interested in finding the most appropriate cluster definition for a specific dataset and research question. We start by introducing the concepts and methodologies of how HIV-1 transmission clusters usually have been defined. We then present the results of a systematic review of 105 HIV-1 molecular epidemiology studies summarizing the most popular methods and definitions in the literature. Finally, we offer our perspectives on how HIV-1 transmission clusters can be defined and provide some guidance based on examples from real life datasets.

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Large cluster outbreaks sustain the HIV epidemic among MSM in Quebec.

Brenner BG, Ibanescu RI, Hardy I, Stephens D, Otis J, Moodie E, Grossman Z,Vandamme AM, Roger M, Wainberg MA; and the Montreal PHI, SPOT cohorts. AIDS. 2017 Mar 13;31(5):707-717. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001383.

Objective: HIV-1 epidemics among MSM remain unchecked despite advances in treatment and prevention paradigms. This study combined viral phylogenetic and behavioural risk data to better understand underlying factors governing the temporal growth of the HIV epidemic among MSM in Quebec (2002-2015).

Methods: Phylogenetic analysis of pol sequences was used to deduce HIV-1transmission dynamics (cluster size, size distribution and growth rate) in first genotypes of treatment-naïve MSM (2002-2015, n = 3901). Low sequence diversity of first genotypes (0-0.44% mixed base calls) was used as an indication of early-stage infection. Behavioural risk data were obtained from the Montreal rapid testing site and primary HIV-1-infection cohorts.

Results: Phylogenetic analyses uncovered high proportion of clustering of new MSM infections. Overall, 27, 45, 48, 53 and 57% of first genotypes within one (singleton, n = 1359), 2-4 (n = 692), 5-9 (n = 367), 10-19 (n = 405) and 20+ (n = 1277) cluster size groups were early infections (<0.44% diversity). Thirty viruses within large 20+ clusters disproportionately fuelled the epidemic, representing 13, 25 and 42% of infections, first genotyped in 2004-2007 (n = 1314), 2008-2011 (n = 1356) and 2012-2015 (n = 1033), respectively. Of note, 35, 21 and 14% of MSM belonging to 20+, 2-19 and one (singleton) cluster groups were under 30 years of age, respectively. Half of persons seen at the rapid testing site (2009-2011, n = 1781) were untested in the prior year. Poor testing propensity was associated with fewer reported partnerships.

Conclusion: Addressing the heterogeneity in transmission dynamics among HIV-1-infected MSM populations may help guide testing, treatment and prevention strategies.

Abstract access 

HIV-1 transmission networks across South Korea.

Ahn MY, Wertheim JO, Kim WJ, Kim SW, Lee JS, Ann HW, Jeon Y, Ahn JY, Song JE, Oh DH, Kim YC, Kim EJ), Jung IY, Kim MH, Jeong W, Jeong SJ, Ku NS, Kim JM, Smith DM, Choi JY. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Mar 27. doi: 10.1089/aid.2016.0212. [Epub ahead of print]

Molecular epidemiology can help clarify the properties and dynamics of HIV-1 transmission networks in both global and regional scales. We studied 143 HIV-1-infected individuals recruited from four medical centers of three cities in South Korea between April 2013 and May 2014. HIV-1 env V3 sequence data were generated (337-793 bp) and analyzed using a pairwise distance-based clustering approach to infer putative transmission networks. Participants whose viruses were ≤2.0% divergent according to Tamura-Nei 93 genetic distance were defined as clustering. We collected demographic, risk, and clinical data and analyzed these data in relation to clustering. Among 143 participants, we identified nine putative transmission clusters of different sizes (range 2-4 participants). The reported risk factor of participants were concordant in only one network involving two participants, that is, both individuals reported homosexual sex as their risk factor. The participants in the other eight networks did not report concordant risk factors, although they were phylogenetically linked. About half of the participants refused to report their risk factor. Overall, molecular epidemiology provides more information to understand local transmission networks and the risks associated with these networks.

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HIV-1 Genetic diversity in northeastern Brazil: high prevalence of non-B subtypes.

Delatorre E, Couto-Fernandez JC, Bello G.AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Mar 22. doi: 10.1089/AID.2017.0045. [Epub ahead of print]

The Northeastern Brazilian region has experienced a constant increase in the number of newly reported AIDS cases over the last decade, but the genetic diversity of HIV-1 strains currently disseminated in this region remains poorly explored. HIV-1 pol sequences were obtained from 140 patients followed at outpatient clinics from four Northeastern Brazilian states (Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará and Piauí) between 2014 and 2015. Subtype B was the most prevalent HIV-1 clade (72%) detected in the Northeastern region, followed by subtypes F1 (6%), C (5%) and D (1%). The remaining strains (16%) displayed a recombinant structure and were classified as: BF1 (11%), BC (4%), BCF1 (1%) and CRF02_AG-like (1%). The 20 HIV-1 BF1 and BC recombinant sequences detected were distributed among 11 lineages classified as: CRF28/29_BF-like (n = 5), CRF39_BF-like (n = 1), URFs_BF (n = 9) and URFs_BC (n = 5). Non-B subtypes were detected in all Northeastern Brazilian states, but with variable prevalence, ranging from 16% in Ceará to 55% in Alagoas. Phylogenetics analyses support that subtype D and CRF02_AG strains detected in the Northeastern region resulted from the expansion of autochthonous transmission networks, rather than from exogenous introductions from other countries. These results reveal that HIV-1 epidemic spreading in the Northeastern Brazilian region is comprised by multiple subtypes and recombinant strains and that the molecular epidemiologic pattern in this Brazilian region is much more complex than originally estimated.

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Identification of a novel HIV type 1 CRF01_AE/B'/C recombinant isolate in Sichuan, China.

Wang Y, Kong D, Xu W, Li F, Liang S, Feng Y, Zhang F, Shao Y, Ma L. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Mar 13. doi: 10.1089/aid.2017.0002. [Epub ahead of print]

We report in this study a novel HIV-1 unique recombinant virus (XC2014EU01) isolated from an HIV-positive man who infected through heterosexual sex in Sichuan, China. The near full-length genome analyses showed that XC2014EU01 harbored one subtype B segment in pol region and two subtype C segments in gag-pol region in a CRF01_AE backbone. The unique mosaic structure was distinctly different from the other CRF01_AE/B'/C recombinant forms reported. Phylogenetic tree analyses revealed that the subtype B region originated from a Thailand subtype B' lineage, the subtype C regions were from an India C lineage, and the backbone was from CRF01_AE. XC2014EU01 was still identified as CCR5-tropic, and plasma of XC2014EU01 infected person had the media neutralizing activity. The emergence of XC2014EU01 may increase the complexity of the HIV-1 epidemic among high-risk populations and the difficulty of vaccine research and development.

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Identification of a novel HIV type 1 circulating recombinant form (CRF86_BC) among heterosexuals in Yunnan, China.

Li Y, Miao J, Miao Z, Song Y, Wen M, Zhang Y, Guo S, Zhao Y, Feng Y, Xia X. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Mar;33(3):279-283. doi: 10.1089/AID.2016.0188. Epub 2016 Oct 18.

In recent years, multiple circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) and unique recombinant forms of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) have been described in Yunnan, China. Here, we identified a novel HIV-1 CRF (CRF86_BC) isolated from three heterosexuals with no obvious epidemiologic linkage in western Yunnan (Baoshan prefecture) in China. CRF86_BC had a subtype C backbone with four subtype B fragments inserted into the pol, vpr, vpu, env, and nef gene regions, respectively. Furthermore, subregion tree analysis revealed that subtype C backbone originated from an Indian C lineage and subtype B segment inserted was from a Thai B lineage. They are different from previously documented B/C forms in its distinct backbone, inserted fragment size, and break points. This highlighted the importance of continual monitoring of genetic diversity and complexity of HIV-1 strains in this region.

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Near full-length genomic characterization of a novel HIV-1 unique recombinant (CRF55_01B/CRF07_BC) from a Malaysian immigrant worker in Zhejiang, China.

Wang H, Luo P, Zhu H, Wang N, Hu J, Mo Q, Yang Z, Feng Y. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Mar;33(3):275-278.doi: 10.1089/AID.2016.0100. Epub 2016 Aug 17.

Recombinant forms contribute substantially to the genetic diversity of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). Here we report a novel HIV-1 recombinant detected from a comprehensive HIV-1 molecular epidemiologic study among cross-border populations in China. Near full-length genome (NFLG) phylogenetic analysis showed that the novel HIV-1 recombinant ZJCIQ15005, which was isolated from a Malaysian immigrant worker in Zhejiang, China, clustered with CRF55_01B reference sequences but set up a distinct branch. Recombinant analysis showed that the NFLG of ZJCIQ15005 composed of CRF55_01B (as the backbone) and CRF07_BC,with 12 recombinant break points observed in the pol, vif, vpr, tat, rev, env,nef, and 3'LTR regions. This is the first detection of a novel HIV-1 recombinant (CRF55_01B/CRF07_BC) in immigrant workers in China. The emergence of this recombinant may increase the complexity of the HIV-1 epidemic in China and suggests the importance of continuous surveillance of the dynamic changes of HIV-1.

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Low rates of transmitted drug resistances among treatment-naive HIV-1 infected students in Beijing, China.

Hao M, Wang J, Xin R, Li X, Hao Y, Chen J, Ye J, Wang Y, He X, Huang C, Lu H. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Mar 22. doi: 10.1089/AID.2017.0053. [Epub ahead of print]

Beijing has seen a rising epidemic of HIV among students. However, little information was known about the molecular epidemiologic data among HIV-infected students. In this study, the diversity and the prevalence of TDR in pol sequences deriving from 237 HIV-infected students were analyzed. TDR mutations were found in 5 MSM among students. The overall prevalence of TDR in students was 2.1%, comprised of 1.3% to protease inhibitors and 0.8 % to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Our finding indicates a low-level prevalence of TDR mutations among students in Beijing.

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Asia, Latin America, Northern America
Brazil, Canada, China, Republic of Korea
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Only a quarter of people living with HIV in South Africa virally suppressed

The continuum of HIV care in South Africa: implications for achieving the second and third UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets.

Takuva S, Brown AE, Pillay Y, Delpech V, Puren AJ. AIDS. 2017 Feb 20;31(4):545-552. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001340.

Background: We characterize engagement with HIV care in South Africa in 2012 to identify areas for improvement towards achieving global 90-90-90 targets.

Methods: Over 3.9 million CD4 cell count and 2.7 million viral load measurements reported in 2012 in the public sector were extracted from the national laboratory electronic database. The number of persons living with HIV (PLHIV), number and proportion in HIV care, on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and with viral suppression (viral load <400 copies/ml) were estimated and stratified by sex and age group. Modified Poisson regression approach was used to examine associations between sex, age group and viral suppression among persons on ART.

Results: We estimate that among 6 511 000 PLHIV in South Africa in 2012, 3 300 000 individuals (50.7%) accessed care and 32.9% received ART. Although viral suppression was 73.7% among the treated population in 2012, the overall percentage of persons with viral suppression among all PLHIV was 23.8%. Linkage to HIV care was lower among men (38.5%) than among women (57.2%). Overall, 47.1% of those aged 0-14 years and 47.0% of those aged 15-49 years were linked to care compared with 56.2% among those aged above 50 years.

Conclusion: Around a quarter of all PLHIV have achieved viral suppression in South Africa. Men and younger persons have poorer linkage to HIV care. Expanding HIV testing, strengthening prompt linkage to care and further expansion of ART are needed for South Africa to reach the 90-90-90 target. Focus on these areas will reduce the transmission of new HIV infections and mortality in the general population.

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Editor’s notes: To maximise the impact of ART, people living with HIV should be diagnosed early, enrolled and initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and retained in ART care. Long-term adherence to achieve and maintain viral load suppression is the last step in the continuum of HIV care. Engagement along the complete treatment cascade will determine the long-term success of the global response to HIV.

In this manuscript, the authors used a combination of national HIV prevalence estimates and routine data collected through the National Health Laboratory Service to construct and characterize the different stages of the HIV care continuum in South Africa.

They estimate that, despite the expansion of the ART programme in South Africa, only about a quarter of people living with HIV were virally suppressed in 2012, contrasting with recent estimates from Botswana where about 70% of people living with HIV were reported to be virally suppressed. They estimate that only about half of all people living with HIV accessed care, but report that, once in care, the ART programme proves to be effective with three-quarters of people on ART achieving virologic suppression. Not surprisingly they found that men and younger persons have poorer linkage to care. They recommend that HIV testing needs to be expanded, and linkage to care needs to be promoted for people testing HIV-positive, if the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment target is to be reached.

This paper illustrates how, in the context of a national public sector laboratory diagnostic service, routine laboratory data can be used to monitor the public health response to HIV at a national level. 

Africa
South Africa
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Sexual risk behaviour, HIV prevalence unchanged in Kenya as more men are circumcised

Changes in male circumcision prevalence and risk compensation in the Kisumu, Kenya population, 2008-2013.

Westercamp M, Jaoko W, Mehta S, Abuor P, Siambe P, Bailey RC. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2017 Feb 1;74(2):e30-e37. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000001180.

Background: Three randomized controlled trials showed that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male HIV transmission by approximately 60%. However, data from communities where VMMC programs have been implemented are needed to assess changes in circumcision prevalence and whether men and women compensate for perceived reductions in risk by increasing their HIV risk behaviors.

Methods: Scale-up of free VMMC began in Kisumu, Kenya in 2008. Between 2009 and 2013, a sequence of 3 unlinked cross-sectional surveys were conducted. All individuals 15-49 years of age residing in randomly selected households were interviewed and offered HIV testing. Male circumcision status was confirmed by examination. Design-adjusted bivariate comparisons and multivariable analyses were used for statistical inference.

Results: The prevalence of male circumcision increased from 32% (95% CI: 26% to 38%) in 2009 to 60% (95% CI: 56% to 63%) in 2013. The adjusted prevalence ratio of HIV and genital ulcer disease in circumcised compared with uncircumcised men was 0.48 (95% CI: 0.36 to 0.66) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.37 to 0.69), respectively. There was no association between circumcision status and sexual behaviors, HIV knowledge, or indicators of risk perception.

Conclusions: The conditions necessary for the VMMC program to have a significant public health impact are present in Kisumu, Kenya. Between 2009 and 2013, circumcision prevalence increased from 30% to 60%; HIV prevalence in circumcised men was half that of uncircumcised men, and there was no or minimal sexual risk compensation.

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Editor’s notes: Evidence of the protective effect of male circumcision on HIV incidence has led many countries in sub-Saharan Africa to promote voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). Mathematical models have illustrated that VMMC programmes will reduce HIV prevalence over time when VMMC uptake is high, and when men who have had VMMC do not substantially increase their sexual risk behaviours. In Kenya, the VMMC programme has exceeded its targets, with over 1.1 million procedures conducted between 2008 and 2015. In this paper, the authors assessed the assumptions behind the models, using data from three population-based cross-sectional surveys conducted among male and female adult residents of Kisumu, Kenya between 2009 and 2013. During this time, VMMC prevalence among men almost doubled from 32% to 60%, yet, HIV prevalence did not change for men or women. In addition, men who had VMMC reported the same levels of sexual risk behaviours as men who were not circumcised, yet had half the prevalence of HIV and genital ulcer disease. This study re-confirms the individual benefit of VMMC in a non-trial population, while demonstrating no evidence for sexual risk compensation. This study is notable for its large sample size, population-based sampling design, visual confirmation of circumcision status, and HIV testing protocol. Studies of longer duration are required to confirm the population-level impacts of VMMC– i.e. a protection benefit beyond men who had VMMC - on HIV prevalence, and to monitor the longer-term trend in sexual risk behaviours.

Africa
Kenya
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High MDR-TB treatment success rates among people on ART

High treatment success rates among HIV-infected multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients after expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Botswana, 2006-2013.

Shin SS, Modongo C, Boyd R, Caiphus C, Kuate L, Kgwaadira B, Zetola NM. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2017 Jan 1;74(1):65-71.

Background: Few studies have examined multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes among HIV-infected persons after widespread expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We describe MDR-TB treatment outcomes among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected patients in Botswana after ART expansion.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed data from patients who started MDR-TB therapy in Botswana during 2006-2013. Multivariable regression models were used to compare treatment outcomes between HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected patients.

Results: We included 588 MDR-TB patients in the analysis, of whom, 47 (8.0%) and 9 (1.5%) were diagnosed with pre-extensively drug-resistant (XDR)-TB and XDR-TB, respectively. Of the 408 (69.4%) HIV-infected patients, 352 (86.0%) were on ART or started ART during treatment, and median baseline CD4 T-cell count was 234 cells/mm3. Treatment success rates were 79.4% and 73.0% among HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected patients, respectively (P = 0.121). HIV-infected patients with CD4 T-cell count <100 cells/mm3 were more likely to die during treatment compared with HIV-uninfected patients (adjusted risk ratio = 1.890; 95% CI: 1.098 to 3.254).

Conclusions: High rates of treatment success were achieved with programmatic management of MDR-TB and HIV in Botswana after widespread expansion of ART. However, a 2-fold increase in mortality was observed among HIV-infected persons with baseline CD4 <100 cells/mm3 compared with HIV-uninfected persons.

Abstract access  

Editor’s notes: This article describes the treatment outcomes of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) among HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Botswana between 2006 and 2013, after expansion of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme. The investigators used programmatic data for their analysis, and the results therefore reflect “real-life” experience of people in the MDR-TB programme.

The authors found very high rates of treatment success. Some 75% of people started on MDR-TB treatment achieved treatment success, and among people living with HIV the success rate was 73%. This is significantly higher than the 57% treatment success reported in a recent systematic review of HIV-positive MDR-TB people. Pre-treatment counselling, strict directly observed therapy, food and transport incentives, follow-up of people who missed their monthly consultations are all aspects of the MDR-TB (and ART programme) that may have contributed to these high success rates. On the other hand, the inclusion of studies done before widespread access to ART may have contributed to the lower success rates reported in the systematic review. 

The reported treatment success of 79% among HIV-negative people was lower than the 84-89% treatment success reported for the new nine-month MDR-TB regimen endorsed by WHO. However, the authors emphasize that additional research is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the nine-month regimen in a similar setting as Botswana, where the majority of MDR-TB people are HIV-positive.

In this study, about 70% of MDR-TB people were HIV-positive, and 20% of people had a CD4 count of less than 100 cells/mm3 at the time of MDR-TB treatment initiation. People with a CD4 less than 100 cells/mm3 were almost twice as likely to die during their MDR-TB treatment compared to HIV-negative people. People living with HIV, with CD4<100 cells/mm3 often have co-morbidities, and are at high risk of dying of diseases other than TB, including cryptococcal meningitis and other opportunistic infections. The authors suggest that additional research is necessary to improve the clinical management of MDR-TB people with advanced immunosuppression.

The authors conclude that to reduce mortality from MDR-TB and other causes, increased efforts are necessary to reach all people living with HIV with ART as part of comprehensive HV care. In June 2016, Botswana launched the “Test and Treat” programme, to provide ART to all people living with HIV, which should contribute to this goal. 

Africa
Botswana
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