Estimates and Projections, Epidemiology

Lewden C, Jougla E, et al. Number of deaths among HIV-infected adults in France in 2000, three-source capture-recapture estimation. Epidemiol Infect 2006;11:1-8

Lewden et al estimated the number of HIV-related adult deaths in France in 2000 from three sources, namely, (1) the 'Mortalite 2000' survey (M2000) which documented 964 deaths in 185 hospital wards involved in HIV management; (2) 1288 death certificates which mentioned HIV infection as cause of death (CepiDc); and (3) the French hospital database on HIV infection (FHDH) which identified 654 deaths; using the capture-recapture method with log-linear modelling. Overall 1559 deaths were observed. Estimation of the total number of deaths in France was 1699 (95% CI 1671-1727). The completeness of M2000, CepiDc and FHDH were 55%, 76% and 38% respectively. Theauthors conclude that the diversity of diseases and causes of death in HIV-infected adults may explain: (1) the diversity of physicians involved in their management and the incompleteness of M2000 and FHDH, and (2) why HIV infection was not mentioned in all death certificates.

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