Articles tagged as "Global / multilateral and bilateral responses"

Pulling out: how to make it work for Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets despite expected donor withdrawal by combining improved ART procurement mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies.

Shattock AJ, Benedikt C, Bokazhanova A, Duric P, Petrenko I, Ganina L, Kelly SL, Stuart RM, Kerr CC, Vinichenko T, Zhang S, Hamelmann C, Manova M, Masaki E, Wilson DP, Gray RT. PLoS One. 2017 Feb 16;12(2):e0169530. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169530. eCollection 2017.

Background: Despite a non-decreasing HIV epidemic, international donors are soon expected to withdraw funding from Kazakhstan. Here we analyze how allocative, implementation, and technical efficiencies could strengthen the national HIV response under assumptions of future budget levels.

Methodology: We used the Optima model to project future scenarios of the HIV epidemic in Kazakhstan that varied in future antiretroviral treatment unit costs and management expenditure-two areas identified for potential cost-reductions. We determined optimal allocations across HIV programs to satisfy either national targets or ambitious targets. For each scenario, we considered two cases of future HIV financing: the 2014 national budget maintained into the future and the 2014 budget without current international investment.

Findings: Kazakhstan can achieve its national HIV targets with the current budget by (1) optimally re-allocating resources across programs and (2) either securing a 35% [30%-39%] reduction in antiretroviral treatment drug costs or reducing management costs by 44% [36%-58%] of 2014 levels. Alternatively, a combination of antiretroviral treatment and management cost-reductions could be sufficient. Furthermore, Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious targets of halving new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 2020 compared to 2014 levels by attaining a 67% reduction in antiretroviral treatment costs, a 19% [14%-27%] reduction in management costs, and allocating resources optimally.

Significance: With Kazakhstan facing impending donor withdrawal, it is important for the HIV response to achieve more with available resources. This analysis can help to guide HIV response planners in directing available funding to achieve the greatest yield from investments. The key changes recommended were considered realistic by Kazakhstan country representatives.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access 

Editor’s notes: The HIV epidemic in Kazakhstan is concentrated around key populations (such as people who inject drugs, female sex workers and their partners, gay men and other men who have sex with men). Unlike in other settings, incidence has not decreased in recent years. However, as Kazakhstan continues to boom economically, international donors are expected to withdraw from the country in the near future and the responsibility for funding HIV-associated programmes will shift towards the state. This article attempts to explore how different kinds of efficiencies in the distribution of resources could strengthen the national HIV response in the coming years.  

The authors modelled future scenarios of the epidemic in Kazakhstan. They looked at whether and how the country could achieve certain targets by 2020 given its budgetary restrictions. They found that the country could achieve its national targets by either securing a 35% reduction in antiretroviral therapy or reducing management costs by 44%.

The topic this paper covers raises a number of important issues. As national governments move towards covering the totality of spending on HIV prevention and treatment, they will be confronted with the need to fund (using national tax revenues) prevention mechanisms. Their mechanisms are aimed at key populations who are often marginalized. Although funding these types of programmes through donor funding may have not caused political challenges, doing so using the state’s funding may. Government budget allocation is often a highly contentious exercise. Potential shifts in national priority setting following donor withdrawal should not be ignored.

Secondly, focussing on key populations is more costly than focussing on the general population. As prevention programmes cover people in key populations who are easier to reach, efforts should shift towards making prevention available to the harder-to-reach sections of key populations. However, this will further increase unit costs per person reached, and probably per infection averted. Given the decrease in external funding for Kazakhstan, it is important for the national response to budget for these additional costs.  This is a necessity to ensure equity in the access to the HIV response.

Asia
Kazakhstan
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Accurate country-level data necessary to inform HIV incidence estimates

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

Wang H, Wolock TM, Carter A, Nguyen G, Kyu HH, Gakidou E, Hay SI, Mills EJ, Trickey A, Msemburi W, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Fraser MS, Sligar A, Salomon J, Larson HJ, Friedman J, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbas KM, Razek MM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adelekan AL, Adofo K, Adou AK, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FH, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NK, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Mohammad R, Al-Raddadi S, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Arnlov J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Atkins LS, Avokpaho EF, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BP, Bacha U, Badawi A, Barac A, Barnighausen T, Basu A, Bayou TA, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhatia E, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Birlik SM, Bisanzio D, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJ, Brown A, Burch M, Butt ZA, Campuzano JC, Cardenas R, Carrero JJ, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catala-Lopez F, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chavan L, Chen W, Chiang PP, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Choi JY, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cooper C, Dahiru T, Damtew SA, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, de Jager P, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Doshi PP, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Elshrek YM, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Faghmous ID, Farinha CS, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JR, Foigt N, Fullman N, Furst T, Gankpe FG, Gebre T, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething PW, Ghiwot TT, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Glaser E, Goenka S, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes MD, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Haagsma J, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Harun KM, Havmoeller R, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Iyer VJ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karletsos D, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil I, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kinfu Y, Kivipelto M, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Lal DK, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Lim SS, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Razek HM, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Makhlouf C, Malekzadeh R, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Mayosi BM, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Miller TR, Mikesell J, Mirarefin M, Mohammad KA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murimira B, Murthy GV, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nawaz H, Nejjari C, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Ojelabi FA, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ota E, Padukudru MA, Park HY, Park JH, Patil ST, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pearson K, Peprah EK, Pereira CC, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Plass D, Polinder S, Pourmalek F, Prokop DM, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MH, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rana SM, Rao PV, Remuzzi G, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roy A, Ruhago GM, Saeedi MY, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Sawhney M, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaikh. Lancet HIV. 2016 Aug;3(8):e361-87. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(16)30087-X. Epub 2016 Jul 19.

Background: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

Methods: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

Findings: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3.3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1-3.4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2.6 million per year (range 2.5-2.8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38.8 million (95% UI 37.6-40.4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1.8 million deaths (95% UI 1.7-1.9 million) in 2005, to 1.2 million deaths (1.1-1.3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

Interpretation: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: The global estimates for HIV incidence, prevalence, and deaths produced by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) mathematical modelling approach for 2015 are somewhat higher than those published by UNAIDS in June 2016 prior to the International Conference on AIDS held in Durban in July. Both GBD and UNAIDS agree that as the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) continues, HIV-associated mortality is declining with the result that HIV prevalence is rising as the number of people living with HIV continues to grow. The metric of critical interest to policy makers and programme planners is HIV incidence, the number of new infections. Each new infection means ART for life, starting from HIV diagnosis now rather than later in disease progression. Both GBD and UNAIDS estimates suggest that globally annual HIV incidence stopped declining after 2005 and has remained persistently high at 2.5 million (2.2-2.7 million) according to GDB and 2.1 million (1.8-2.4 million) according to UNAIDS. Where the estimates differ is at country level, precisely where they can make the most difference to decision making. GBD estimates for HIV incidence for countries in the regions of northern America, Europe, Australasia, and central Asia are significantly lower than the reported numbers of newly diagnosed cases (see the comparison table in the Lancet commentary by Supervie and Costagliola. For example, 85 252 people were newly diagnosed with HIV in the Russian federation in 2014 whereas the GBD estimate for people newly acquiring HIV in 2015 was only 57 340, albeit with a wide range of uncertainly. For the United States of America, the uncertainly bounds around the GBD estimate of 23 040 do not include 44,073, the number of newly diagnosed cases. Furthermore, new diagnoses likely underestimate actual HIV incidence as they include people who acquired HIV in previous years. Estimates for some high prevalence countries are significantly higher than those produced by those countries with UNAIDS support. For example, http://aidsinfo.unaids.org/ illustrates South Africa as having 380 000 (330 000-430 000) new infections while GBD estimates 529 670 (440 940 to 630 390). Modelling estimates are simply estimates but they cannot be confirmatory or even complementary when they are so different. UNAIDS and IHME (GBD) are already working to understand the differences in the two mathematical modelling approaches - their methodologies, parameters, and assumptions - in order to explain important discrepancies at country level. More importantly, improved data collection by countries of the numbers of HIV diagnoses, people accessing and staying on ART, and the proportion of people living with HIV who achieve viral suppression is necessary to monitor progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment target. Enhanced clinical and epidemiological surveillance systems are also key to the creation of more accurate estimates of country HIV incidence, the metric that reflects HIV prevention programme progress and informs budget allocations and programme planning for HIV treatment. 

195 countries
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Changing norms: lessons from HIV advocacy for NCDs prevention

Ability of HIV advocacy to modify behavioral norms and treatment impact: a systematic review.

Sunguya BF, Munisamy M, Pongpanich S, Yasuoka J, Jimba M. Am J Public Health. 2016 Aug;106(8):e1-e8. Epub 2016 Jun 16.

Background: HIV advocacy programs are partly responsible for the global community's success in reducing the burden of HIV. The rising wave of the global burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) has prompted the World Health Organization to espouse NCD advocacy efforts as a possible preventive strategy. HIV and NCDs share some similarities in their chronicity and risky behaviors, which are their associated etiology. Therefore, pooled evidence on the effectiveness of HIV advocacy programs and ideas shared could be replicated and applied during the conceptualization of NCD advocacy programs. Such evidence, however, has not been systematically reviewed to address the effectiveness of HIV advocacy programs, particularly programs that aimed at changing public behaviors deemed as risk factors.

Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of HIV advocacy programs and draw lessons from those that are effective to strengthen future noncommunicable disease advocacy programs.

Search methods: We searched for evidence regarding the effectiveness of HIV advocacy programs in medical databases: PubMed, The Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature Plus, Educational Resources and Information Center, and Web of Science, with articles dated from 1994 to 2014.

Search criteria. The review protocol was registered before this review. The inclusion criteria were studies on advocacy programs or interventions. We selected studies with the following designs: randomized controlled design studies, pre-post intervention studies, cohorts and other longitudinal studies, quasi-experimental design studies, and cross-sectional studies that reported changes in outcome variables of interest following advocacy programs. We constructed Boolean search terms and used them in PubMed as well as other databases, in line with a population, intervention, comparator, and outcome question. The flow of evidence search and reporting followed the standard Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines.

Data collection and analysis: We selected 2 outcome variables (i.e., changing social norms and a change in impact) out of 6 key outcomes of advocacy interventions. We assessed the risk of bias for all selected studies by using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized studies and using the Risk of Bias for Nonrandomized Observational Studies for observational studies. We did not grade the collective quality of evidence because of differences between the studies, with regard to methods, study designs, and context. Moreover, we could not carry out meta-analyses because of heterogeneity and the diverse study designs; thus, we used a narrative synthesis to report the findings.

Main results: A total of 25 studies were eligible, of the 1463 studies retrieved from selected databases. Twenty-two of the studies indicated a shift in social norms as a result of HIV advocacy programs, and 3 indicated a change in impact. We drew 6 lessons from these programs that may be useful for noncommunicable disease advocacy: (1) involving at-risk populations in advocacy programs, (2) working with laypersons and community members, (3) working with peer advocates and activists, (4) targeting specific age groups and asking support from celebrities, (5) targeting several, but specific, risk factors, and (6) using an evidence-based approach through formative research.

Author conclusions: HIV advocacy programs have been effective in shifting social norms and facilitating a change in impact.

Public health implications: The lessons learned from these effective programs could be used to improve the design and implementation of future noncommunicable disease advocacy programs.

Abstract access

Editor’s notes: This article presents the results of a systematic review to answer a question about the effectiveness of HIV advocacy in changing social norms and changing impact among key populations. The review was conducted to learn from effective HIV advocacy and apply similar strategies for the prevention and reduction of the global burden of non-communicable diseases. The review included quantitative research only. After searching 3320 articles, 25 articles met the inclusion criteria. The HIV advocacy activities reviewed ranged from local and mass campaigns using a variety of media, to social marketing, celebrities, drama, promotional activities and counselling. Changes in social norms were assessed using six specific variables, for example testing behaviour change or HIV-associated stigma. Changes in impact were analysed in two aspects, changes in HIV transmission and in adherence to antiretroviral therapy. The review has found significant evidence of the effect of HIV advocacy on the outcomes of interest. The authors highlight lessons from HIV advocacy that might be useful for future non-communicable diseases advocacy. These included the vital role of peer-educator and of lay members of the community and the involvement of key populations in programmes that focus on them.  In addition, there is a need to tailor programmes to specific (rather than multiple) risks using local and salient evidence. 

Africa, Northern America, Oceania
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The power of PEPFAR programmes: estimates of infections averted and life years gained in Africa

Estimating the impact of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief on HIV treatment and prevention programmes in Africa.

Heaton LM, Bouey PD, Fu J, Stover J, Fowler TB, Lyerla R, Mahy M. Sex Transm Infect. 2015 Dec;91(8):615-20. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2014-051991. Epub 2015 Jun 8.

Background: Since 2004, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported the tremendous scale-up of HIV prevention, care and treatment services, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluate the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programmes on survival, mortality, new infections and the number of orphans from 2004 to 2013 in 16 PEPFAR countries in Africa.

Methods: PEPFAR indicators tracking the number of persons receiving ART for their own health, ART regimens for PMTCT and biomedical prevention of HIV through VMMC were collected across 16 PEPFAR countries. To estimate the impact of PEPFAR programmes for ART, PMTCT and VMMC, we compared the current scenario of PEPFAR-supported interventions to a counterfactual scenario without PEPFAR, and assessed the number of life years gained (LYG), number of orphans averted and HIV infections averted. Mathematical modelling was conducted using the SPECTRUM modelling suite V.5.03.

Results: From 2004 to 2013, PEPFAR programmes provided support for a cumulative number of     24 565 127 adults and children on ART, 4 154 878 medical male circumcisions, and ART for PMTCT among 4 154 478 pregnant women in 16 PEPFAR countries. Based on findings from the model, these efforts have helped avert 2.9 million HIV infections in the same period. During 2004-2013, PEPFAR ART programmes alone helped avert almost 9 million orphans in 16 PEPFAR countries and resulted in 11.6 million LYG.

Conclusions: Modelling results suggest that the rapid scale-up of PEPFAR-funded ART, PMTCT and VMMC programmes in Africa during 2004-2013 led to substantially fewer new HIV infections and orphaned children during that time and longer lives among people living with HIV. Our estimates do not account for the impact of the PEPFAR-funded non-biomedical interventions such as behavioural and structural interventions included in the comprehensive HIV prevention, care and treatment strategy used by PEPFAR countries. Therefore, the number of HIV infections and orphans averted and LYG may be underestimated by these models.

Abstract access

Editor’s notes: The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) was initiated in 2004 with $42 billion spent up until the end of 2013. Despite limitations in monitoring the overall contribution of PEPFAR to individual programmes, this article attempts to provide an overview of PEPFAR support for ART, prevention of mother to child transmission and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programmes using the 2014 version of Spectrum Software model. The Spectrum modules used included DemProj, AIDS Impact Model (AIM) and Goals, which interact to model the impact and future course of the HIV epidemic at the population level.  An estimate of PEPFAR’s contribution was obtained by subtracting it from the total for the national programme statistics reported by UNAIDS on ART, PMTCT and VMMC.

The baseline scenario of PEPFAR-supported programmes in 2013 was compared to a counterfactual scenario, which subtracts the direct contribution of PEPFAR. The results estimate that the combined programmes have averted 2.7 million infections in Africa, with over 11.5 million life years gained and the aversion of almost nine million orphans. Other key population programmes that the funding supported including gender equity and health strengthening were not evaluated and therefore, the estimate for impact may be conservative. A limitation of the analysis is that it is unable to predict the national response without PEPFAR and the impact of ART calculated by the model is sensitive to the distribution of new ART patients by CD4 count at the initiation of treatment. In addition, few countries have sufficient death registration systems to validate mortality estimates, which may result in the accomplishments of PEPFAR’s impact being overestimated. However, with the operation of PEPFAR in a larger context of partnership consortiums, an improvement in evaluation methods will be necessary. 

Africa
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HIV and gay men and other men who have sex with men: an expanding and underfunded epidemic

Financing the response to HIV among gay men and other men who have sex with men: case studies from eight diverse countries.

Grosso A, Ryan O, Tram KH, Baral S. Glob Public Health. 2015 Dec;10(10):1172-84. doi: 10.1080/17441692.2015.1043314. Epub 2015 Jul 3.

Despite reductions in the number of new HIV infections globally, the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) is expanding. This study characterises financing of HIV programmes for MSM and the impact of criminalisation on levels of funding, using data from five countries that criminalise same-sex sexual practices (Ethiopia, Mozambique, Guyana, India and Nigeria) and three that do not (China, Ukraine and Vietnam). For each country, all publicly available documents from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria for approved HIV/AIDS grants in Rounds 5-9 and Country Operational Plans detailing investments made through the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) from US fiscal year (FY) 2007-2009 were examined. Eleven of 20 HIV proposals to the Global Fund contained programmes for MSM totalling approximately $40 million or 6% of proposed budgets. In six countries providing activity-level data on MSM programming, PEPFAR funding that served this population and others ranged from $23.3 million in FY2007 to $35.4 million in FY2009, representing 0.5-25.9% of overall, non-treatment funding over this period. Countries that criminalise same-sex sexual practices spend fewer resources on HIV programmes serving MSM. However, they also show consistent underfunding of programmes serving MSM regardless of context or geography.

 Abstract access

Editor’s notes: Despite encouraging indicators on the reduction of new HIV infections worldwide, the epidemic among gay men and other men who have sex with men continues to grow. This is due to both biological and structural factors. With many governments failing to take responsibility for this at-risk population, funding for gay men and other men who have sex with men-specific programmes often comes from international donors. This study looks at Global Fund and PEPFAR financing of programmes for gay men and other men who have sex with men, comparing funding availability and services offered both in settings where homosexuality is criminalised and settings where it is not.

The study finds that most proposed funding focuses on behaviour change communication, and less frequently on improving sexual health services, community outreach and education. Nations that criminalise homosexuality allocated about 2% of funding towards gay men and other men who have sex with men services, while countries without punitive measures allocated close to 7%. Importantly, both were felt to be inadequately small sums of money in relation to the size of the epidemic. Key stakeholder interviews from criminalising countries suggest that legal restrictions make it more difficult to provide services focused on gay men and other men who have sex with men. Although, little is known about the degree to which gay men and other men who have sex with men access services focused on the general population. The authors also note that countries that criminalise homosexuality may request funds for gay men and other men who have sex with men believing that donors will look favourably on budgets that include these activities. After receiving funds, these countries may re-programme activities, reducing or removing these focussed programmes.

There is comparatively little research done on HIV and gay men and other men who have sex with men in low- and middle-income countries, in particular in African settings. This article contributes to an expanding literature on the subject and raises questions about the role that international donors should play in ensuring an equitable access to services, particularly in the context of reprogramming. This highlights how real impact on the incidence of HIV among gay men and other men who have sex with men requires both demand generation and accountability in equal measure.

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America
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Expanding ART access: increasing costs

The HIV treatment gap: estimates of the financial resources needed versus available for scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in 97 countries from 2015 to 2020.

Dutta A, Barker C, Kallarakal A. PLoS Med. 2015 Nov 24;12(11):e1001907. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001907. eCollection 2015.

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available.

Methods and findings: Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead.

We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data.

Conclusions: The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

Abstract Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: This is a complex and important paper that seeks to understand the financial requirements necessary to: a) continue countries’ current policies of eligibility for ART, b) roll out universal adoption of certain aspects of WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and c) expand eligibility as per WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS ‘90-90-90’ targets.

The authors estimated the number of adults and children eligible for and receiving HIV treatment, as well as the cost of providing ART in 97 countries across six regions, covering different income levels. They estimated that 25.7 million adults and 1.57 million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain the current eligibility strategies. If countries adopted WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, 26.5 million adults and 1.53 million children would be on ART by 2020, and if they adopted the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 million adults and 1.68 million children could receive treatment by then. The financial resources necessary for this scale up are estimated to be US$ 45.8 billion under current eligibility, US$ 48.7 billion under WHO 2013 scenario and US$ 52.5 billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. The estimated funding gap for the six year period ranges between US$ 20 and US$ 25 billion. In this study, the costs of commodities were taken directly from data collated by other organisations.  No empirical cost estimates of service delivery were made.  Nor was there an attempt to understand the cost implications of the development synergies and social and programme enablers that may be needed to increase the number of people living with HIV knowing their status.  The new WHO recommendations need to be actively pursued if we are to meet targets, rather than passively continuing with “business as usual”. 

Nonetheless, the findings of this study highlight the gap between guidelines written by WHO and very real programmatic obstacles on the ground. There is evidence to suggest that universal test-and-treat strategies could lead to substantially improved health outcomes at the population level, as well as potentially being cost-saving in the long-term. However, as the authors have illustrated, it would require increased levels of funding. What needs to be explored further now is how to overcome the logistical hurdles of rolling out such an initiative. Changing systems and practices is costly and takes time. Health workers will have to be retrained, data collection strategies will have to be revised. Expanding treatment may also mean increasing the number of health staff working on this initiative, which has an opportunity cost that may reverberate in other parts of the health system. Substantially altering health service provision, particularly in weak health systems, may have knock-on effects with unexpected and unintended consequences.

WHO guidelines serve a vital purpose of giving us a goal to aim for. But studies like this one help us know if and how we can get there. 

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Oceania
Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Botswana, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China, Comoros, Côte d'Ivoire, Cuba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of the Congo, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia and Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Uganda, Ukraine, United Republic of Tanzania, Uzbekistan, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe
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Harnessing the successful political prioritisation of HIV to reduce the burden of congenital syphilis

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of syphilis and HIV in China: What drives political prioritization and what can this tell us about promoting dual elimination?

Wu D, Hawkes S, Buse K. Int J Gynaecol Obstet. 2015 Apr 29. pii: S0020-7292(15)00202-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ijgo.2015.04.005. [Epub ahead of print]

Objective: The present study aims to identify reasons behind the lower political priority of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of syphilis compared with HIV, despite the former presenting a much larger and growing burden than the latter, in China, over the 20 years prior to 2010.

Methods: We undertook a comparative policy analysis, based on informant interviews and documentation review of control of MTCT of syphilis and HIV, as well as nonparticipant observation of relevant meetings/trainings to investigate agenda-setting prior to 2010.

Results: We identified several factors contributing to the lower priority accorded to MTCT of syphilis: relative neglect at a global level, dearth of international financial and technical support, poorly unified national policy community with weak accountability mechanisms, insufficient understanding of the epidemic and policy options, and a prevailing negative framing of syphilis that resulted in significant stigmatization.

Conclusion: A dual elimination goal will only be reached when prioritization of MTCT of syphilis is enhanced in both the international and national agendas.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes:  In 2009, China had nearly 11 000 reported cases of congenital syphilis, compared to 57 cases of mother-to-child HIV transmission, yet congenital syphilis was not a policy priority. The authors investigate and compare the policy responses to the two infections in order to understand the determinants of prioritisation in Chinese health policy. The national policy response to the mother-to-child transmission of HIV highlights the importance of global agendas. These include reporting mechanisms, international financial and technical assistance, credible indicators, as well as cohesive national policy communities that coalesce around a formal mechanism of coordination and policy influence, namely the Chinese National Centre for Women and Children’s Health. In addition, the specific national policy environment and other focusing events were critical to the prioritisation of the mother-to-child transmission of HIV. The new leadership was moving towards a socio-economic equality agenda, and the recent severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak had further underscored the importance of controlling infectious diseases. Alongside this, the national ‘blood selling’ scandal, during which hundreds of thousands of rural Chinese acquired HIV through blood selling in the 90s, was receiving increasing attention in international media. This contributed to a different framing of the HIV issue, away from the stigmatising ‘immoral’ narrative to an ‘innocent victims’ narrative. Congenital syphilis, unfortunately, continued to suffer from a stigmatising framing. However, delivery platforms for the effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV have been established and could be used for a dual control and elimination approach, with greater health benefits. The authors conclude that greater policy prioritisation could be achieved with a more nuanced framing of the two infections as being linked when it comes to underlying vulnerability and feasibility of solutions. It will require a strong partnership and collaboration between the mother-to-child transmission of syphilis and HIV policy communities.       

Asia
China
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Donor pull-out: how much will it cost to fill the gap for HIV testing in Viet Nam?

Expenditure analysis of HIV testing and counseling services using the cascade framework in Vietnam.

Nguyen VT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen QC, Duong PT, West G. PLoS One. 2015 May 15;10(5):e0126659. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0126659. eCollection 2015.

Objectives: Currently, HIV testing and counseling (HTC) services in Vietnam are primarily funded by international sources. However, international funders are now planning to withdraw their support and the Government of Vietnam (GVN) is seeking to identify domestic funding and generate client fees to continue services. A clear understanding of the cost to sustain current HTC services is becoming increasingly important to facilitate planning that can lead to making HTC and other HIV services more affordable and sustainable in Vietnam. The objectives of this analysis were to provide a snapshot of current program costs to achieve key program outcomes including 1) testing and identifying PLHIV unaware of their HIV status and 2) successfully enrolling HIV (+) clients in care.

Methods: We reviewed expenditure data reported by 34 HTC sites in nine Vietnamese provinces over a one-year period from October 2012 to September 2013. Data on program outcomes were extracted from the HTC database of 42 390 client records. Analysis was carried out from the service providers' perspective.

Results: The mean expenditure for a single client provided HTC services (testing, receiving results and referral for care/treatment) was US $7.6. The unit expenditure per PLHIV identified through these services varied widely from US $22.8 to $741.5 (median: $131.8). Excluding repeat tests, the range for expenditure to newly diagnose a PLHIV was even wider (from US $30.8 to $1483.0). The mean expenditure for one successfully referred HIV client to care services was US $466.6. Personnel costs contributed most to the total cost.

Conclusions: Our analysis found a wide range of expenditures by site for achieving the same outcomes. Re-designing systems to provide services at the lowest feasible cost is essential to making HIV services more affordable and treatment for prevention programs feasible in Vietnam. The analysis also found that understanding the determinants and reasons for variance in service costs by site is an important enhancement to the cascade of HIV services framework now adapted for and extensively used in Vietnam for planning and evaluation.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: Some 91% of expenditure for HIV testing and counselling (HTC) in Viet Nam is funded by international donors. As donors start to reduce their contributions in the coming years, more of the costs will have to be fronted by the government of Viet Nam. Consequently, this paper looks at the cost around diagnosing HIV within the context of the care and treatment cascade, including not only the cost per person diagnosed, but also the cost of successfully enrolling people who have tested positive for HIV into care and treatment. This is particularly important in the context of Viet Nam, where only 29% of people estimated to be living with HIV have ever been enrolled in care and treatment services. 

An important finding of the paper is in the break-down of costs by input by facilities. The authors found that the cost of personnel account for 40% of total costs. More importantly, they also found that the personnel costs vary widely between facilities, which may suggest that some facilities are over-staffed and are not allocating tasks efficiently. This is a key finding. As financial resources become scarcer, savings may need to be found by determining the optimal level of staffing and task-shifting.

The paper illustrates, as is to be expected, that the cost per person successfully enrolled in care and treatment is substantially higher than the costs per person tested and per person testing positive.  However, it is not entirely clear whether the extra cost is explained simply by the fact that the overhead and start-up costs are allocated to a smaller number of people, or whether there are additional costs involved in a successful referral. This area needs further exploration. Additionally, an interesting follow-up to this paper could take on the costing from a societal perspective with the aim to understand the relation between patient-level costs and the successful link between testing and referral to care and treatment services.

Asia
Viet Nam
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Disease-specific Global Fund grants may be preventing the realisation of system-wide synergies for increased human resources for health

Global Fund investments in human resources for health: innovation and missed opportunities for health systems strengthening.

Bowser D, Sparkes SP, Mitchell A, Bossert TJ, Bärnighausen T, Gedik G, Atun R. Health Policy Plan. 2014 Dec;29(8):986-97. doi: 10.1093/heapol/czt080. Epub 2013 Nov 6.

Background: Since the early 2000s, there have been large increases in donor financing of human resources for health (HRH), yet few studies have examined their effects on health systems.

Objective: To determine the scope and impact of investments in HRH by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund), the largest investor in HRH outside national governments.

Methods: We used mixed research methodology to analyse budget allocations and expenditures for HRH, including training, for 138 countries receiving money from the Global Fund during funding rounds 1-7. From these aggregate figures, we then identified 27 countries with the largest funding for human resources and training and examined all HRH-related performance indicators tracked in Global Fund grant reports. We used the results of these quantitative analyses to select six countries with substantial funding and varied characteristics-representing different regions and income levels for further in-depth study: Bangladesh (South and West Asia, low income), Ethiopia (Eastern Africa, low income), Honduras (Latin America, lower-middle income), Indonesia (South and West Asia, lower-middle income), Malawi (Southern Africa, low income) and Ukraine (Eastern Europe and Central Asia, upper-middle income). We used qualitative methods to gather information in each of the six countries through 159 interviews with key informants from 83 organizations. Using comparative case-study analysis, we examined Global Fund's interactions with other donors, as well as its HRH support and co-ordination within national health systems.

Results: Around US$1.4 billion (23% of total US$5.1 billion) of grant funding was allocated to HRH by the 138 Global Fund recipient countries. In funding rounds 1-7, the six countries we studied in detail were awarded a total of 47 grants amounting to US$1.2 billion and HRH budgets of US$276 million, of which approximately half were invested in disease-focused in-service and short-term training activities. Countries employed a variety of mechanisms including salary top-ups, performance incentives, extra compensation and contracting of workers for part-time work, to pay health workers using Global Fund financing. Global Fund support for training and salary support was not co-ordinated with national strategic plans and there were major deficiencies in the data collected by the Global Fund to track HRH financing and to provide meaningful assessments of health system performance.

Conclusion: The narrow disease focus and lack of co-ordination with national governments call into question the efficiency of funding and sustainability of Global Fund investments in HRH and their effectiveness in strengthening recipient countries' health systems. The lessons that emerge from this analysis can be used by both the Global Fund and other donors to improve co-ordination of investments and the effectiveness of programmes in recipient countries.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: This study describes Global Fund’s budget allocations, expenditures and specific activities on human resources for health (HRH) from 2002 to 2010. The authors were particularly interested in exploring whether and how these investments contributed to health system strengthening through a more detailed qualitative analysis of six geographically and programmatically different countries.  

They find that the 27 countries with the largest budgeted HRH expenditures allocated some 29.6% to HRH, and had a ratio of 1.35 health workers trained in comparison to the total national health workforce, suggesting duplication of training activities and programme inefficiency. This reflects the confirmed lack of coordination with national HRH training programmes that the authors documented, particularly in Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Malawi. In terms of coordinating HRH salary support and financing plans, only Honduras and Malawi had developed plans for absorbing some of the health workers that were being covered by Global Fund grants. In other countries, the top-ups and monetary compensation/ incentives funded through Global Fund grants to increase retention and motivation, were considered short-term and would not be sustained. Of the six country case studies, it is only in Malawi that the Global Fund coordinated its efforts with the national HRH strategy and other donor programmes.

The study highlights the need for a paradigm shift away from disease-focused grants to co-investments in HIV, tuberculosis and malaria that would allow the realisation of remarkable synergies and efficiency gains.

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America
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Integrating HIV, malaria and diarrhoea prevention is far more efficient than vertical programmes

Scaling up integrated prevention campaigns for global health: costs and cost-effectiveness in 70 countries. 

Marseille E, Jiwani A, Raut A, Verguet S, Walson J, Kahn JG. BMJ Open. 2014 Jun 26;4(6):e003987. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003987.

Objective: This study estimated the health impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of an integrated prevention campaign (IPC) focused on diarrhoea, malaria and HIV in 70 countries ranked by per capita disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) burden for the three diseases.

Methods: We constructed a deterministic cost-effectiveness model portraying an IPC combining counselling and testing, cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, referral to treatment and condom distribution for HIV prevention; bed nets for malaria prevention; and provision of household water filters for diarrhoea prevention. We developed a mix of empirical and modelled cost and health impact estimates applied to all 70 countries. One-way, multiway and scenario sensitivity analyses were conducted to document the strength of our findings. We used a healthcare payer's perspective, discounted costs and DALYs at 3% per year and denominated cost in 2012 US dollars.

Primary and secondary outcomes: The primary outcome was cost-effectiveness expressed as net cost per DALY averted. Other outcomes included cost of the IPC; net IPC costs adjusted for averted and additional medical costs and DALYs averted.

Results: Implementation of the IPC in the 10 most cost-effective countries at 15% population coverage would cost US$583 million over 3 years (adjusted costs of US$398 million), averting 8.0 million DALYs. Extending IPC programmes to all 70 of the identified high-burden countries at 15% coverage would cost an adjusted US$51.3 billion and avert 78.7 million DALYs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ranged from US$49 per DALY averted for the 10 countries with the most favourable cost-effectiveness to US$119, US$181, US$335, US$1 692 and US$8 340 per DALY averted as each successive group of 10 countries is added ordered by decreasing cost-effectiveness.

Conclusions: IPC appears cost-effective in many settings, and has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of disease in resource-poor countries. This study increases confidence that IPC can be an important new approach for enhancing global health.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: Increasingly governments and policy makers are seeking to identify how to invest resources most effectively, to achieve multiple health and development outcomes. This paper presents a cost-effectiveness analysis of an integrated campaign to prevent diarrhoea, malaria and HIV.  

They developed a model to estimate the cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted by this intervention, across 70 countries with high disease burden, assuming 15% coverage. The authors categorise countries by income level and their opportunity index (i.e. the opportunity to avert DALYs by having a high disease burden). The findings suggest that an integrated prevention campaign (IPC) could cost as little as US$7 per DALY averted in Guinea-Bissau, a low income, high opportunity country. As would be expected, the contribution of the different IPC components varied by country, depending on their relative disease burdens. This suggests that further focusing of activities within countries may further improve efficiency.

The model was also used to consider potential roll out strategies across counties. For this, countries were grouped into blocks of 10, and ordered with increasing incremental-cost effectiveness. The authors suggest that reaching the top 40 countries with IPC, even at just 15% coverage, could achieve far greater health benefits, with a substantially lower budget, than requested under PEPFAR for antiretroviral therapy alone.

This paper provides further evidence of the need for a more integrated approach to improve population health across disease areas.

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America
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