Articles tagged as "Andorra"

Counting and classifying global deaths

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, et al. Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8. Epub 2014 Jul 22.

Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.

Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1.8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1.7 million to 2.1 million), 29.2 million prevalent HIV cases (28.1 to 31.7), and 1.3 million HIV deaths (1.3 to 1.5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1.7 million deaths (1.6 million to 1.9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19.1 million life-years (16.6 million to 21.5 million) have been saved, 70.3% (65.4 to 76.1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$ 4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.5 million (7.4 million to 7.7 million), prevalence was 11.9 million (11.6 million to 12.2 million), and number of deaths was 1.4 million (1.3 million to 1.5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.1 million (6.9 million to 7.3 million), prevalence was 11.2 million (10.8 million to 11.6 million), and number of deaths was 1.3 million (1.2 million to 1.4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64.0% of cases (63.6 to 64.3) and 64.7% of deaths (60.8 to 70.3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1.2 million deaths (1.1 million to 1.4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31.5% (15.7 to 44.1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18.7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

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Editor’s notes: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study uses standard methods to compare and track over time national distributions of deaths by cause, and the prevalence of disease and disability.  This detailed report focuses on HIV, TB and Malaria. It presents regional summaries of incidence, prevalence and mortality rates, and national estimates of the number of male and female deaths and new infections. Point estimates are shown for 2013, and annualised rates of change for 1990-2000 and 2000-2013. These highlight the contrasting trends in disease impact before and after the formulation of the Millennium Development Goal to combat these diseases.  The global peak of HIV mortality occurred in 2005, but regional annualised rates of change for 2000-2013 indicate that HIV deaths are still increasing significantly in east Asia, southern Africa, and most rapidly in eastern Europe.

The GBD 2013 global estimates of new infections and deaths agree closely with the corresponding estimates made by UNAIDS. But there are significant differences in the respective estimates of the number of people currently living with HIV (UNAIDS estimates are some 18% higher), and historical trends in AIDS deaths, with UNAIDS judging that the recent fall has been steeper. These differences are attributed primarily to methods used in the GBD study to ensure that the sum of deaths from specific causes fits the estimated all cause total, and to varying assumptions about historical survival patterns following HIV infection. 

It may be worthwhile to look at a comment by Michel Sidibé, Mark Dybul, and Deborah Birx in the Lancet on MDG 6 and beyond: from halting and reversing AIDS to ending the epidemic which refers to this study.

Epidemiology
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Discordant couples

Outside sexual partnerships and risk of HIV acquisition for HIV uninfected partners in African HIV serodiscordant partnerships

Ndase P, Celum C, Thomas K, Donnell D, Fife KH, Bukusi E, Delany-Moretlwe S, Baeten JM, J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2012 Jan 1;59(1):65-71.

As African countries scale up couples HIV testing, little is known about sexual behaviours and HIV risk for HIV-uninfected partners in known HIV serodiscordant relationships. Ndase and colleagues conducted a prospective study of 3,380 HIV serodiscordant partnerships from 7 African countries. Self-reported sexual behaviour data were collected quarterly from HIV-uninfected partners. The proportion of HIV-uninfected partners reporting sex with their known primary HIV infected partner decreased during follow-up (from 93.5% in the prior month at baseline to 73.2% at 24 months, p<0.001). Simultaneously, an increasing proportion reported sex with an outside partner (from 3.1% to 13.9%, p<0.001). A small proportion (<5%, stable throughout follow-up) reported sex with the infected partner and an outside partner in the same month (concurrent). Unprotected sex was more common with outside partners than with their primary known HIV infected partners (risk ratio 4.6; 95% CI 4.2-5.2). HIV incidence was similar for those reporting sex only with their primary HIV-infected partner compared to those who reported an outside partner (2.87 vs. 3.02 per 100 person-years, p=0.7), although those who had outside partners were more likely to acquire HIV that was virologically distinct from that of their primary partner (p<0.001). For uninfected members of HIV-serodiscordant couples, sex with the infected partner declined as sex with outside partners increased, likely reflecting relationship dissolution and risk shifting from a known infected partner. Risk reduction messages for HIV uninfected partners in serodiscordant partnerships should include strategies to reduce HIV acquisition from outside partners.

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Editor’s note: HIV-negative people in serodiscordant partnerships rarely have contact with health care providers after receiving their initial HIV-negative test result. As well, little is known about the evolution of sexual practices in serodiscordant couples after they learn their serostatus. This study, analysing data from a herpes suppression trial (the HIV-positive partner also had herpes simplex virus-2 infection) provides useful information about sexual practices both within and outside the couple over time. Sex within couples declined for both men (94% to 73%) and women (92% to 74%) during the 2 years after they learned their results and sex with an outside partner increased for both men (4% to 19%) and women (0.5% to 4%). Of note, when an outside partner was reported by the HIV-negative partner in a quarterly interview there was little concurrency less than 5% reported sex both within and outside the couple in the previous month. There was a steady increase over time for both men and women in the proportions reporting no sexual activity and reporting sexual activity only with outside partners. The most striking finding is low reported condom use with outside partners, reflecting risk perceptions that may not mirror true risk. Of the 21 people reporting outside partners who seroconverted, 18 acquired HIV outside the partnership while of the 130 reporting no outside partners who seroconverted, 105 of these infections could be biologically linked to the seropositive partner. As the scaling up of HIV testing and counselling proceeds, more serodiscordant couples will learn their status an estimated 50% of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa have a partner who is not infected. Tailored counselling for these couples can help them support each other to better perceive their HIV transmission and acquisition risks to protect themselves and others.

Andorra
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