Articles tagged as "Honduras"

How can we improve the UNAIDS modes of transmission model?

The HIV modes of transmission model: a systematic review of its findings and adherence to guidelines.

Shubber Z, Mishra S, Vesga JF, Boily MC. J Int AIDS Soc. 2014 Jun 23;17:18928. doi: 10.7448/IAS.17.1.18928. eCollection 2014.

Introduction: The HIV Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the annual fraction of new HIV infections (FNI) acquired by different risk groups. It was designed to guide country-specific HIV prevention policies. To determine if the MOT produced context-specific recommendations, we analyzed MOT Results by region and epidemic type, and explored the factors (e.g. data used to estimate parameter inputs, adherence to guidelines) influencing the differences.

Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and UNAIDS reports, and contacted UNAIDS country directors for published MOT Results from MOT inception (2003) to 25 September 2012.

Results: We retrieved four journal articles and 20 UNAIDS reports covering 29 countries. In 13 countries, the largest FNI (range 26 to 63%) was acquired by the low-risk group and increased with low-risk population size. The FNI among female sex workers (FSWs) remained low (median 1.3%, range 0.04 to 14.4%), with little variability by region and epidemic type despite variability in sexual behaviour. In India and Thailand, where FSWs play an important role in transmission, the FNI among FSWs was 2 and 4%, respectively. In contrast, the FNI among men who have sex with men (MSM) varied across regions (range 0.1 to 89%) and increased with MSM population size. The FNI among people who inject drugs (PWID, range 0 to 82%) was largest in early-phase epidemics with low overall HIV prevalence. Most MOT studies were conducted and reported as per guidelines but data quality remains an issue.

Conclusions: Although countries are generally performing the MOT as per guidelines, there is little variation in the FNI (except among MSM and PWID) by region and epidemic type. Homogeneity in MOT FNI for FSWs, clients and low-risk groups may limit the utility of MOT for guiding country-specific interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics.

 Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: In 2002, the HIV Modes of Transmission model (MoT) was developed by UNAIDS to inform and focus, country-specific HIV prevention policies. The idea behind the model was to use simple mathematical modelling approaches, in combination with country specific data, to predict what the distribution of new HIV infection may look like. In this way, countries would be able to better focus their HIV response. Since its development and through 2012, the MoT has been applied in 29 countries, with the findings being used in many settings to shape priorities. In this study, the authors assess the degree to which the MoT produces different outputs in different epidemic contexts. They explore whether there are key parameters in the model that seem to drive similarities and/or differences in projections between countries. Surprisingly, across a broad range of epidemic settings, they found limited variability in the predicted annual fraction of new HIV infections (FNI) acquired by female sex workers (FSW) (0.04-14.4%). There were higher levels of variability between countries in the projected fraction of new HIV infections among men who have sex with men (0.01-89%) and people who inject drugs (0-82%).

The differences in the MoT projections were largely dependent on whether the country in question was categorised as having a concentrated / low-level epidemic, versus generalised epidemic, as defined by UNAIDS. Differences also arose depending upon whether ‘low risk groups’ were also included in the model. Indeed, for 22 of the 25 studies that included a low-risk group, this group was predicted to have a large annual fraction of new HIV infections (11.8-62.9%). This phenomenon arose, not because of high transmission rates in this group (in comparison to others such as MSM or PWIDs) but because these ‘low risk groups’ are large. They are one third of the total population. These findings may be misleading, as the projected high fraction of transmission is dependent on the assumption that everyone in this ‘low risk group’ does have some risk.

It appears that although the MoT was designed to address an important need, it is likely to have limited utility to guide programming in heterosexually driven epidemics.  To address this limitation, UNAIDS is supporting the HIV Modelling Consortium in their development of a revised MoT model that takes into better consideration risk categorization, data constraints and programmatic needs. The revised model is currently undergoing field testing and will be available for country use in 2015.

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America
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CD4 counts at antiretroviral therapy start rising globally, but could do better!

Immunodeficiency at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy in low-,  middle-, and high-income countries.

The IeDEA and ART Cohort Collaborations. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2014 Jan 1;65(1):e8-e16. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3182a39979.

Objective: To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries.

Methods: Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed.

Results: In total, 379 865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/µL between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/µL (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/µL (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/µL (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/µL [95% confidence interval (CI): -56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/µL (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/µL (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/µL (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/µL) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/µL (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/µL) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage.

Conclusions: Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/µL in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/µL in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: In this multi-cohort analysis spanning six continents, median CD4 counts at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy were substantially higher in high-income compared to low- or middle-income countries. Median CD4 counts at initiation increased between 2002 and 2009 in most countries studied, but these increases were greater in low- and middle-income than high-income countries and were greater among men than women. Baseline CD4 counts in low- and middle-income countries were higher among countries with national antiretroviral therapy coverage of 80% or above. Nevertheless, despite the massive scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries since 2002, the increases in median CD4 count at the start of antiretroviral therapy have been modest. Substantial efforts and resources are needed to achieve earlier implementation of antiretroviral therapy globally.

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Renewed prevention efforts needed for key populations in Latin America and the Caribbean

Epidemiology of HIV in Latin America and the Caribbean.

De Boni R, Veloso VG, Grinsztejn B. Curr Opin HIV AIDS. 2014 Jan 3. [Epub ahead of print]

Purpose of review: The aim of the present review is to update HIV/AIDS Epidemiology in Latin America and the Caribbean highlighting the concentrated aspect of epidemic in the region.

Recent findings: Among general population, HIV prevalence in Latin America is at stable levels (0.2-0.7%). The Caribbean still has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in the world (<0.1-3%), but incidences have declined around 49%. This is not the current situation for high-risk key populations; most incident cases occur among MSM. Available data on transgender women suggest that they are the most-at-risk group. Female sex workers still have a 12-fold chance of being HIV positive compared with other women. IDU prevalence was revised to 0.45%, but non-IDU has been suggested as a mediator between sexual risk and HIV.

Summary: The increase in treatment coverage (mean is at 63%) resulted in modifications of HIV/AIDS epidemiology. New strategies to seek, test and link key populations to care are urgently needed and targeted interventions to prevent HIV expansion among them must be adopted. These strategies should consider the particular situation regarding social inequalities, discrimination and violence that pervade the HIV epidemic among key populations.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: This review highlights recently published data on key populations in Latin America and the Caribbean, including men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender women, female sex workers and people who inject drugs. HIV remains a concentrated epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean with MSM and transgender women being the most vulnerable populations. Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage has increased to over 80% in several countries, a renewed focus on prevention, especially among key populations, is needed. It is estimated that prevention efforts currently only receive 15% of HIV public spending in this region. Culturally appropriate efforts are needed to identify and prevent HIV infection among key populations, and to better understand transmission dynamics of neglected groups such as transgender women. 

Latin America
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