Articles tagged as "Mongolia"

Expanding ART access: increasing costs

The HIV treatment gap: estimates of the financial resources needed versus available for scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in 97 countries from 2015 to 2020.

Dutta A, Barker C, Kallarakal A. PLoS Med. 2015 Nov 24;12(11):e1001907. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001907. eCollection 2015.

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available.

Methods and findings: Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead.

We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data.

Conclusions: The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

Abstract Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: This is a complex and important paper that seeks to understand the financial requirements necessary to: a) continue countries’ current policies of eligibility for ART, b) roll out universal adoption of certain aspects of WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and c) expand eligibility as per WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS ‘90-90-90’ targets.

The authors estimated the number of adults and children eligible for and receiving HIV treatment, as well as the cost of providing ART in 97 countries across six regions, covering different income levels. They estimated that 25.7 million adults and 1.57 million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain the current eligibility strategies. If countries adopted WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, 26.5 million adults and 1.53 million children would be on ART by 2020, and if they adopted the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 million adults and 1.68 million children could receive treatment by then. The financial resources necessary for this scale up are estimated to be US$ 45.8 billion under current eligibility, US$ 48.7 billion under WHO 2013 scenario and US$ 52.5 billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. The estimated funding gap for the six year period ranges between US$ 20 and US$ 25 billion. In this study, the costs of commodities were taken directly from data collated by other organisations.  No empirical cost estimates of service delivery were made.  Nor was there an attempt to understand the cost implications of the development synergies and social and programme enablers that may be needed to increase the number of people living with HIV knowing their status.  The new WHO recommendations need to be actively pursued if we are to meet targets, rather than passively continuing with “business as usual”. 

Nonetheless, the findings of this study highlight the gap between guidelines written by WHO and very real programmatic obstacles on the ground. There is evidence to suggest that universal test-and-treat strategies could lead to substantially improved health outcomes at the population level, as well as potentially being cost-saving in the long-term. However, as the authors have illustrated, it would require increased levels of funding. What needs to be explored further now is how to overcome the logistical hurdles of rolling out such an initiative. Changing systems and practices is costly and takes time. Health workers will have to be retrained, data collection strategies will have to be revised. Expanding treatment may also mean increasing the number of health staff working on this initiative, which has an opportunity cost that may reverberate in other parts of the health system. Substantially altering health service provision, particularly in weak health systems, may have knock-on effects with unexpected and unintended consequences.

WHO guidelines serve a vital purpose of giving us a goal to aim for. But studies like this one help us know if and how we can get there. 

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Oceania
Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Botswana, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, China, Comoros, Côte d'Ivoire, Cuba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of the Congo, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia and Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Uganda, Ukraine, United Republic of Tanzania, Uzbekistan, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe
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Savings-led microfinance programme leads to lower sexual risk among sex workers in Mongolia

Efficacy of a savings-led microfinance intervention to reduce sexual risk for HIV among women engaged in sex work: a randomized clinical trial.

Witte SS, Aira T, Tsai L, Riedel M, Offringa R, Chang M, El-Bassel N, Ssewamala F. Am J Public Health. 2015 Mar;105(3):e95-e102. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.302291. Epub 2015 Jan 20.

Objectives: We tested whether a structural intervention combining savings-led microfinance and HIV prevention components would achieve enhanced reductions in sexual risk among women engaging in street-based sex work in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, compared with an HIV prevention intervention alone.

Methods: Between November 2011 and August 2012, we randomized 107 eligible women who completed baseline assessments to either a 4-session HIV sexual risk reduction intervention (HIVSRR) alone (n = 50) or a 34-session HIVSRR plus a savings-led microfinance intervention (n = 57). At 3- and 6-month follow-up assessments, participants reported unprotected acts of vaginal intercourse with paying partners and number of paying partners with whom they engaged in sexual intercourse in the previous 90 days. Using Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson model regressions, we examined the effects of assignment to treatment versus control condition on outcomes.

Results: At 6-month follow-up, the HIVSRR plus microfinance participants reported significantly fewer paying sexual partners and were more likely to report zero unprotected vaginal sex acts with paying sexual partners.

Conclusions: Findings advance the HIV prevention repertoire for women, demonstrating that risk reduction may be achieved through a structural intervention that relies on asset building, including savings, and alternatives to income from sex work.

Abstract access

Editor’s notes: This study on sexual risk among sex workers in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, contributes to evidence that economic empowerment reduces HIV risk. Mongolia has a low prevalence of HIV. But it is considered highly vulnerable to the spread of HIV. This suggests that such programmes should be implemented to prevent concentrated epidemics becoming generalised epidemics. The authors acknowledge that while microfinance might be economically empowering it may represent “saving down”, which can keep women in debt and in a cycle of poverty and a reliance on sex work. The trial tested whether increasing financial literacy, business development knowledge and skills and personal savings would lead to more significant reductions in sexual risk behaviours than a sexual risk reduction programme alone. Groups of sex workers were randomised to receive either a four session HIV sexual risk reduction programme (HIVSRR) or HIVSRR plus a savings-led microfinance programme. The HIVSRR alone involved the delivery of two sessions per week for two weeks and focused on skills to develop self-efficacy for risk reduction. The HIVSRR plus savings-led microfinance programme involved the four sessions on self-efficacy for risk reduction, followed by 12 financial literacy sessions three times a week and then 12 sessions of business development training three times a week. The activities were tested at three months and six months to explore the short time impact on sexual risk. The authors found that women who received the HIVSSRR plus savings-led microfinance programme reported greater reductions in number of paying sexual partners and fewer sexual partners at six months follow up. These women were also more likely to report no unprotected vaginal sex acts at six months follow up. This study is important in illustrating that as a structural programme, the provision of microfinance is more effective if women are provided with skills to manage finances and to save money instead of ending up in a cycle of debt repayment. This has important implications for other microfinance programmes, such as programmes to reduce gender-based violence.

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Counting and classifying global deaths

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, et al. Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8. Epub 2014 Jul 22.

Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.

Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1.8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1.7 million to 2.1 million), 29.2 million prevalent HIV cases (28.1 to 31.7), and 1.3 million HIV deaths (1.3 to 1.5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1.7 million deaths (1.6 million to 1.9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19.1 million life-years (16.6 million to 21.5 million) have been saved, 70.3% (65.4 to 76.1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$ 4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.5 million (7.4 million to 7.7 million), prevalence was 11.9 million (11.6 million to 12.2 million), and number of deaths was 1.4 million (1.3 million to 1.5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.1 million (6.9 million to 7.3 million), prevalence was 11.2 million (10.8 million to 11.6 million), and number of deaths was 1.3 million (1.2 million to 1.4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64.0% of cases (63.6 to 64.3) and 64.7% of deaths (60.8 to 70.3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1.2 million deaths (1.1 million to 1.4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31.5% (15.7 to 44.1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18.7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study uses standard methods to compare and track over time national distributions of deaths by cause, and the prevalence of disease and disability.  This detailed report focuses on HIV, TB and Malaria. It presents regional summaries of incidence, prevalence and mortality rates, and national estimates of the number of male and female deaths and new infections. Point estimates are shown for 2013, and annualised rates of change for 1990-2000 and 2000-2013. These highlight the contrasting trends in disease impact before and after the formulation of the Millennium Development Goal to combat these diseases.  The global peak of HIV mortality occurred in 2005, but regional annualised rates of change for 2000-2013 indicate that HIV deaths are still increasing significantly in east Asia, southern Africa, and most rapidly in eastern Europe.

The GBD 2013 global estimates of new infections and deaths agree closely with the corresponding estimates made by UNAIDS. But there are significant differences in the respective estimates of the number of people currently living with HIV (UNAIDS estimates are some 18% higher), and historical trends in AIDS deaths, with UNAIDS judging that the recent fall has been steeper. These differences are attributed primarily to methods used in the GBD study to ensure that the sum of deaths from specific causes fits the estimated all cause total, and to varying assumptions about historical survival patterns following HIV infection. 

It may be worthwhile to look at a comment by Michel Sidibé, Mark Dybul, and Deborah Birx in the Lancet on MDG 6 and beyond: from halting and reversing AIDS to ending the epidemic which refers to this study.

Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Costa Rica, Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Finland, France, Gabon, Gambia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia (Federated States of), Monaco, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palestinian Territory, Occupied, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia and Montenegro, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syrian Arab Republic, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United States of America, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zimbabwe
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Female sex work in Central Asia: a neglected population for research and intervention

HIV among female sex workers in the Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan, and Mongolia: contexts and convergence with drug use.

Baral S, Todd CS, Aumakhan B, Lloyd J, Delegchoimbol A, Sabin K. Drug Alcohol Depend. 2013 Nov;132 Suppl 1:S13-6. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2013.07.004. Epub 2013 Aug 14.

Background: Central Asia is culturally and demographically diverse, both between and within its respective countries. That diversity is represented in the range of individual, network, community, and structural risks for female sex workers (FSWs) regionally. FSWs have several risk factors for HIV acquisition and transmission including behavioral, biological, and structural risk factors. Across Central Asia, sexual risks have become conflated with risks associated with injection and non-injection illicit drug use.

Methods: Peer-reviewed literature databases and gray literature were searched for articles on sex work in Central Asia. The medical subject heading (MeSH) of "sex work" was cross-referenced with terms associated with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Afghanistan.

Results: HIV prevalence data for FSWs suggest sustained or increasing prevalence in the region. There are increasing data directly linking HIV among FSWs to injection drug use; odds of HIV are up to 20 times higher among FSWs reporting injecting drug use. Though injecting drug use among FSWs is rare in some settings, recreational drugs and alcohol use limits other risk reduction behaviors, such as condom use.

Conclusions: The Central Asian HIV epidemic has traditionally been assumed to be driven nearly exclusively by drug use, resulting in surveillance systems focused on parenteral transmission. The reviewed data highlight limited attention to characterizing the burden of HIV and risk factors for HIV acquisition and transmission among FSWs who use drugs. Moving forward will require enhanced HIV surveillance and research to inform HIV prevention approaches to address all levels of HIV risks affecting FSWs in Central Asia.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: This paper summarises available data on HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Central Asia. The many gaps in information are striking – with data on HIV prevalence being available for only three of the seven countries reviewed, data on HIV among injecting female sex workers (FSW) available from three countries, and data on HIV among non-injecting female sex workers being available from one country only. The most detailed data came from Kyrgyzstan, where, as would be expected, injecting female sex workers were at greatest risk of HIV, and also had very high levels of hepatitis C infection. The findings highlight the need to expand surveillance systems in the region. Doing so will lead to better geographical coverage, and also to obtain more routinely compiled information on the extent of sex work and the prevalence of HIV infection among injecting and non-injecting sex workers. The high risk of HIV and hepatitis C infection among injecting FSW highlight also the importance of programmes for sex workers who inject drugs.   

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More evidence on men who have sex with men in Central Asia needed

Uncovering the epidemic of HIV among men who have sex with men in Central Asia.

Wirtz AL, Kirey A, Peryskina A, Houdart F, Beyrer C. Drug Alcohol Depend. 2013 Nov;132 Suppl 1:S17-24. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2013.06.031. Epub 2013 Jul 29.

Background: Research among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Central Asia has described same sex behavior among male PWID and may be associated with HIV and other infections. Little is known about the population of men who have sex with men (MSM) and the burden of HIV among MSM in Central Asian countries.

Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed publications and gray literature on MSM and HIV in the region. Search strategies included terms for MSM combined with five Central Asian countries and neighbors, including Mongolia, Afghanistan, and Xinjiang Province, China.

Results: 230 sources were identified with 43 eligible for inclusion: 12 provided HIV prevalence and population size estimates for MSM, none provided incidence estimates, and no publications for Turkmenistan were identified. National reports estimate HIV prevalence among MSM to range from 1 to 2% in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Xinjiang, to 10% in Mongolia. Biobehavioral studies estimated HIV prevalence at 0.4% in Afghanistan and 20.2% in Kazakhstan. Sexual identities and behaviors vary across countries. Injection drug use was relatively low among MSM (<5% for most). Non-injection drugs, alcohol use prior to sex, and binge drinking were more common and potentially associated with violence. Criminalization of homosexuality (Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) and stigma has limited research and HIV prevention.

Conclusion: Improved understanding of risks, including potential linkages between sexual exposures and substance use, among MSM are important for response. The little known about HIV among MSM in Central Asia speaks to the urgency of improvements in HIV research, prevention, and care.

Abstract access

Editor’s notes: In Central Asia, the HIV epidemic has historically been characterised as primarily being driven by injecting drug use. However, this is an over-simplification, and research with people who inject drugs is starting to show that some men who inject drugs, also have sex with men. This review compiled existing evidence about HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the region, from both the academic and grey literature. The paper is important, both because of the insights that the findings provide, as well as because of the large gaps in data that it illustrates. Currently there is extremely limited data that can be used to characterise the burden of HIV and risk factors for HIV acquisition and transmission among MSM, including men who use drugs. This provides an incomplete picture of the HIV epidemic in the region. Stronger evidence about the broader range of vulnerable populations, and the interactions and overlapping of risk behaviours, is needed.  This is necessary to better understand and characterise the epidemic in each country in the region; and to help shape a more effective response.  

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