Articles tagged as "Nigeria"

Counting and classifying global deaths

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, et al. Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8. Epub 2014 Jul 22.

Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.

Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1.8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1.7 million to 2.1 million), 29.2 million prevalent HIV cases (28.1 to 31.7), and 1.3 million HIV deaths (1.3 to 1.5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1.7 million deaths (1.6 million to 1.9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19.1 million life-years (16.6 million to 21.5 million) have been saved, 70.3% (65.4 to 76.1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$ 4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.5 million (7.4 million to 7.7 million), prevalence was 11.9 million (11.6 million to 12.2 million), and number of deaths was 1.4 million (1.3 million to 1.5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.1 million (6.9 million to 7.3 million), prevalence was 11.2 million (10.8 million to 11.6 million), and number of deaths was 1.3 million (1.2 million to 1.4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64.0% of cases (63.6 to 64.3) and 64.7% of deaths (60.8 to 70.3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1.2 million deaths (1.1 million to 1.4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31.5% (15.7 to 44.1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18.7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study uses standard methods to compare and track over time national distributions of deaths by cause, and the prevalence of disease and disability.  This detailed report focuses on HIV, TB and Malaria. It presents regional summaries of incidence, prevalence and mortality rates, and national estimates of the number of male and female deaths and new infections. Point estimates are shown for 2013, and annualised rates of change for 1990-2000 and 2000-2013. These highlight the contrasting trends in disease impact before and after the formulation of the Millennium Development Goal to combat these diseases.  The global peak of HIV mortality occurred in 2005, but regional annualised rates of change for 2000-2013 indicate that HIV deaths are still increasing significantly in east Asia, southern Africa, and most rapidly in eastern Europe.

The GBD 2013 global estimates of new infections and deaths agree closely with the corresponding estimates made by UNAIDS. But there are significant differences in the respective estimates of the number of people currently living with HIV (UNAIDS estimates are some 18% higher), and historical trends in AIDS deaths, with UNAIDS judging that the recent fall has been steeper. These differences are attributed primarily to methods used in the GBD study to ensure that the sum of deaths from specific causes fits the estimated all cause total, and to varying assumptions about historical survival patterns following HIV infection. 

It may be worthwhile to look at a comment by Michel Sidibé, Mark Dybul, and Deborah Birx in the Lancet on MDG 6 and beyond: from halting and reversing AIDS to ending the epidemic which refers to this study.

Epidemiology
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Costa Rica, Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Finland, France, Gabon, Gambia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia (Federated States of), Monaco, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palestinian Territory, Occupied, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia and Montenegro, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syrian Arab Republic, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United States of America, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zimbabwe
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Model estimates large global burden of childhood tuberculosis infection and potentially preventable future tuberculosis disease

Burden of childhood tuberculosis in 22 high-burden countries: a mathematical modelling study.

Dodd PJ, Gardiner E, Coghlan R, Seddon JA. Lancet Glob Health. 2014 Aug;2(8):e453-9. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70245-1. Epub 2014 Jul 8.

Background: Confirmation of a diagnosis of tuberculosis in children (aged <15 years) is challenging; under-reporting can result even when children do present to health services. Direct incidence estimates are unavailable, and WHO estimates build on paediatric notifications, with adjustment for incomplete surveillance by the same factor as adult notifications. We aimed to estimate the incidence of infection and disease in children, the prevalence of infection, and household exposure in the 22 countries with a high burden of the disease.

Methods: Within a mechanistic mathematical model, we combined estimates of adult tuberculosis prevalence in 2010, with aspects of the natural history of paediatric tuberculosis. In a household model, we estimated household exposure and infection. We accounted for the effects of age, BCG vaccination, and HIV infection. Additionally, we tested sensitivity to key structural assumptions by repeating all analyses without variation in BCG efficacy by latitude.

Findings: The median number of children estimated to be sharing a household with an individual with infectious tuberculosis in 2010 was 15 319 701 (IQR 13 766 297-17 061 821). In 2010, the median number of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections in children was 7 591 759 (5 800 053-9 969 780), and 650 977 children (424 871-983 118) developed disease. Cumulative exposure meant that the median number of children with latent infection in 2010 was 53 234 854 (41 111 669-68 959 804). The model suggests that 35% (23-54) of paediatric cases of tuberculosis in the 15 countries reporting notifications by age in 2010 were detected. India is predicted to account for 27% (22-33) of the total burden of paediatric tuberculosis in the 22 countries. The predicted proportion of tuberculosis burden in children for each country correlated with incidence, varying between 4% and 21%.

Interpretation: Our model has shown that the incidence of paediatric tuberculosis is higher than the number of notifications, particularly in young children. Estimates of current household exposure and cumulative infection suggest an enormous opportunity for preventive treatment.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access 

Editor’s notes: Estimating the burden of childhood tuberculosis has been largely neglected until recently. Children with tuberculosis rarely transmit and therefore from a control perspective, childhood tuberculosis does not notably contribute to the continuation of the tuberculosis epidemic. This modelling paper attempts to estimate the global burden of childhood tuberculosis infection and disease. Incidence estimates are made by using adult tuberculosis prevalence data to tackle the known limitations of using paediatric notification data. A second model estimates the prevalence of infection in children and household exposure, ignoring exposure outside of the household.  As with all mathematical model predictions, precision of estimates are dependent on the data used as inputs in the model. Despite these limitations, the paper draws attention to the fact that the burden of childhood tuberculosis infection and disease is significant and reflects failure of tuberculosis control in the 22 high-burden countries. The paper also highlights the fact that household contact tracing and preventive therapy in tuberculosis-exposed children could substantially reduce future tuberculosis-related morbidity.

Avoid TB deaths
Comorbidity, Epidemiology
Africa, Asia, Latin America
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How can we improve the UNAIDS modes of transmission model?

The HIV modes of transmission model: a systematic review of its findings and adherence to guidelines.

Shubber Z, Mishra S, Vesga JF, Boily MC. J Int AIDS Soc. 2014 Jun 23;17:18928. doi: 10.7448/IAS.17.1.18928. eCollection 2014.

Introduction: The HIV Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the annual fraction of new HIV infections (FNI) acquired by different risk groups. It was designed to guide country-specific HIV prevention policies. To determine if the MOT produced context-specific recommendations, we analyzed MOT Results by region and epidemic type, and explored the factors (e.g. data used to estimate parameter inputs, adherence to guidelines) influencing the differences.

Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and UNAIDS reports, and contacted UNAIDS country directors for published MOT Results from MOT inception (2003) to 25 September 2012.

Results: We retrieved four journal articles and 20 UNAIDS reports covering 29 countries. In 13 countries, the largest FNI (range 26 to 63%) was acquired by the low-risk group and increased with low-risk population size. The FNI among female sex workers (FSWs) remained low (median 1.3%, range 0.04 to 14.4%), with little variability by region and epidemic type despite variability in sexual behaviour. In India and Thailand, where FSWs play an important role in transmission, the FNI among FSWs was 2 and 4%, respectively. In contrast, the FNI among men who have sex with men (MSM) varied across regions (range 0.1 to 89%) and increased with MSM population size. The FNI among people who inject drugs (PWID, range 0 to 82%) was largest in early-phase epidemics with low overall HIV prevalence. Most MOT studies were conducted and reported as per guidelines but data quality remains an issue.

Conclusions: Although countries are generally performing the MOT as per guidelines, there is little variation in the FNI (except among MSM and PWID) by region and epidemic type. Homogeneity in MOT FNI for FSWs, clients and low-risk groups may limit the utility of MOT for guiding country-specific interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics.

 Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: In 2002, the HIV Modes of Transmission model (MoT) was developed by UNAIDS to inform and focus, country-specific HIV prevention policies. The idea behind the model was to use simple mathematical modelling approaches, in combination with country specific data, to predict what the distribution of new HIV infection may look like. In this way, countries would be able to better focus their HIV response. Since its development and through 2012, the MoT has been applied in 29 countries, with the findings being used in many settings to shape priorities. In this study, the authors assess the degree to which the MoT produces different outputs in different epidemic contexts. They explore whether there are key parameters in the model that seem to drive similarities and/or differences in projections between countries. Surprisingly, across a broad range of epidemic settings, they found limited variability in the predicted annual fraction of new HIV infections (FNI) acquired by female sex workers (FSW) (0.04-14.4%). There were higher levels of variability between countries in the projected fraction of new HIV infections among men who have sex with men (0.01-89%) and people who inject drugs (0-82%).

The differences in the MoT projections were largely dependent on whether the country in question was categorised as having a concentrated / low-level epidemic, versus generalised epidemic, as defined by UNAIDS. Differences also arose depending upon whether ‘low risk groups’ were also included in the model. Indeed, for 22 of the 25 studies that included a low-risk group, this group was predicted to have a large annual fraction of new HIV infections (11.8-62.9%). This phenomenon arose, not because of high transmission rates in this group (in comparison to others such as MSM or PWIDs) but because these ‘low risk groups’ are large. They are one third of the total population. These findings may be misleading, as the projected high fraction of transmission is dependent on the assumption that everyone in this ‘low risk group’ does have some risk.

It appears that although the MoT was designed to address an important need, it is likely to have limited utility to guide programming in heterosexually driven epidemics.  To address this limitation, UNAIDS is supporting the HIV Modelling Consortium in their development of a revised MoT model that takes into better consideration risk categorization, data constraints and programmatic needs. The revised model is currently undergoing field testing and will be available for country use in 2015.

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America
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Integrating HIV, malaria and diarrhoea prevention is far more efficient than vertical programmes

Scaling up integrated prevention campaigns for global health: costs and cost-effectiveness in 70 countries. 

Marseille E, Jiwani A, Raut A, Verguet S, Walson J, Kahn JG. BMJ Open. 2014 Jun 26;4(6):e003987. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003987.

Objective: This study estimated the health impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of an integrated prevention campaign (IPC) focused on diarrhoea, malaria and HIV in 70 countries ranked by per capita disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) burden for the three diseases.

Methods: We constructed a deterministic cost-effectiveness model portraying an IPC combining counselling and testing, cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, referral to treatment and condom distribution for HIV prevention; bed nets for malaria prevention; and provision of household water filters for diarrhoea prevention. We developed a mix of empirical and modelled cost and health impact estimates applied to all 70 countries. One-way, multiway and scenario sensitivity analyses were conducted to document the strength of our findings. We used a healthcare payer's perspective, discounted costs and DALYs at 3% per year and denominated cost in 2012 US dollars.

Primary and secondary outcomes: The primary outcome was cost-effectiveness expressed as net cost per DALY averted. Other outcomes included cost of the IPC; net IPC costs adjusted for averted and additional medical costs and DALYs averted.

Results: Implementation of the IPC in the 10 most cost-effective countries at 15% population coverage would cost US$583 million over 3 years (adjusted costs of US$398 million), averting 8.0 million DALYs. Extending IPC programmes to all 70 of the identified high-burden countries at 15% coverage would cost an adjusted US$51.3 billion and avert 78.7 million DALYs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ranged from US$49 per DALY averted for the 10 countries with the most favourable cost-effectiveness to US$119, US$181, US$335, US$1 692 and US$8 340 per DALY averted as each successive group of 10 countries is added ordered by decreasing cost-effectiveness.

Conclusions: IPC appears cost-effective in many settings, and has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of disease in resource-poor countries. This study increases confidence that IPC can be an important new approach for enhancing global health.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: Increasingly governments and policy makers are seeking to identify how to invest resources most effectively, to achieve multiple health and development outcomes. This paper presents a cost-effectiveness analysis of an integrated campaign to prevent diarrhoea, malaria and HIV.  

They developed a model to estimate the cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted by this intervention, across 70 countries with high disease burden, assuming 15% coverage. The authors categorise countries by income level and their opportunity index (i.e. the opportunity to avert DALYs by having a high disease burden). The findings suggest that an integrated prevention campaign (IPC) could cost as little as US$7 per DALY averted in Guinea-Bissau, a low income, high opportunity country. As would be expected, the contribution of the different IPC components varied by country, depending on their relative disease burdens. This suggests that further focusing of activities within countries may further improve efficiency.

The model was also used to consider potential roll out strategies across counties. For this, countries were grouped into blocks of 10, and ordered with increasing incremental-cost effectiveness. The authors suggest that reaching the top 40 countries with IPC, even at just 15% coverage, could achieve far greater health benefits, with a substantially lower budget, than requested under PEPFAR for antiretroviral therapy alone.

This paper provides further evidence of the need for a more integrated approach to improve population health across disease areas.

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America
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Meta-analysis finds partial support for elevated HIV prevalence among the military

Systematic review and meta-analysis of HIV prevalence among men in militaries in low income and middle income countries. 

Lloyd J, Papworth E, Grant L, Beyrer C, Baral S. Sex Transm Infect. 2014 Apr 7. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2013-051463. [Epub ahead of print]

Objectives: To determine whether the current HIV prevalence in militaries of low-income and middle-income countries is higher, the same, or lower than the HIV prevalence in the adult male population of those countries.

Methods: HIV prevalence data from low-income and middle-income countries' military men were systematically reviewed during 2000-2012 from peer reviewed journals, clearing-house databases and the internet. Standardised data abstraction forms were used to collect information on HIV prevalence, military branch and sample size. Random effects meta-analyses were completed with the Mantel-Haenszel method comparing HIV prevalence among military populations with other men in each country.

Results: 2 214 studies were retrieved, of which 18 studies representing nearly 150 000 military men across 11 countries and 4 regions were included. Military male HIV prevalence across the studies ranged from 0.06% (n=22 666) in India to 13.8% (n=2 733) in Tanzania with a pooled prevalence of 1.1% (n=147 591). HIV prevalence in male military populations in sub-Saharan Africa was significantly higher when compared with reproductive age (15-49 years) adult men (OR: 2.8, 95% CI 1.01 to 7.81). HIV prevalence in longer-serving male military populations compared with reproductive age adult men was significantly higher (OR: 2.68, 95% CI 1.65 to 4.35).

Conclusions: Our data reveals that across the different settings, the burden of HIV among militaries may be higher or lower than the civilian male populations. In this study, male military populations in sub-Saharan Africa, low-income countries and longer-serving men have significantly higher HIV prevalence. Given the national security implications of the increased burden of HIV, interventions targeting military personnel in these populations should be scaled up where appropriate.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: Men in military service are considered a key population because they spend protracted periods away from home and may engage in casual or other high-risk sex. This is not just a health concern for the armed forces themselves, but countries have in the past refused the assistance of peacekeeping forces because they were deemed a source of new infections. This systematic review concludes that HIV infection rates in the military are not universally higher than among men of reproductive age in the general population. However, significantly elevated prevalence was detected in studies from sub-Saharan Africa and among military who have been in service for over one year. The latter suggests that the relatively high prevalence results from increased exposure during service rather than the disproportional recruitment of men with HIV into service. On the contrary, the prevalence among new recruits is lower than in the general population. Prevention efforts, including HIV testing and counselling, and condom distribution, need to be increased during deployment in settings where exposure to HIV is high.

Epidemiology
Africa, Asia, Latin America
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Overcoming logistical barriers to implementing viral load testing

 

Systematic review of the use of dried blood spots for monitoring HIV viral load and for early infant diagnosis.

Smit PW, Sollis KA, Fiscus S, Ford N, Vitoria M, Essajee S, Barnett D, Cheng B, Crowe SM, Denny T, Landay A, Stevens W, Habiyambere V, Perriens JH, Peeling RW. PLoS One. 2014 Mar 6;9(3):e86461. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086461. eCollection 2014.

Background: Dried blood spots (DBS) have been used as alternative specimens to plasma to increase access to HIV viral load (VL) monitoring and early infant diagnosis (EID) in remote settings. We systematically reviewed evidence on the performance of DBS compared to plasma for VL monitoring and EID.

Methods and findings: Thirteen peer reviewed HIV VL publications and five HIV EID papers were included. Depending on the technology and the viral load distribution in the study population, the percentage of DBS samples that are within 0.5 log of VL in plasma ranged from 52-100%. Because the input sample volume is much smaller in a blood spot, there is a risk of false negatives with DBS. Sensitivity of DBS VL was found to be 78-100% compared to plasma at VL below 1 000 copies/ml, but this increased to 100% at a threshold of 5 000 copies/ml. Unlike a plasma VL test which measures only cell free HIV RNA, a DBS VL also measures proviral DNA as well as cell-associated RNA, potentially leading to false positive results when using DBS. The systematic review showed that specificity was close to 100% at DBS VL above 5 000 copies/ml, and this threshold would be the most reliable for predicting true virologic failure using DBS. For early infant diagnosis, DBS has a sensitivity of 100% compared to fresh whole blood or plasma in all studies.  

Conclusions: Although limited data are available for EID, DBS offer a highly sensitive and specific sampling strategy to make viral load monitoring and early infant diagnosis more accessible in remote settings. A standardized approach for sampling, storing, and processing DBS samples would be essential to allow successful implementation.

Abstract    Full-text [free] access 

Editor’s notes: The World Health Organization recommends that viral load monitoring is used to confirm early infant diagnoses of HIV and to monitor people on antiretroviral therapy for treatment failure. However, viral load monitoring is expensive, technically complex and requires good laboratory infrastructure and highly trained staff. As a result few countries in resource-limited settings have been able to implement these guidelines.

This systematic review evaluates the performance of dried blood spots as compared to plasma for measuring viral load. Dried blood spots (DBS) are an alternative sampling strategy which could be used to overcome some of the logistical barriers to the widespread implementation of viral load testing. They can be performed by lay workers as there is no need for phlebotomy. Whole blood from a finger or heel prick is placed directly onto filter paper and once dried they can be stored with desiccant and transferred to the central laboratory at room temperature. The results of this systematic review confirm that DBS offer a highly sensitive and specific sampling strategy for early infant diagnosis and for detecting virologic failure at a viral load threshold of      >5 000 copies/ml. However, the authors’ stress that in order to compare different methodologies, standardised protocols for sampling, storing and processing samples are needed. DBS do provide a very promising strategy for increasing access to viral load monitoring. However if we are to see an impact on outcomes, the roll out of DBS will need to be accompanied by robust systems to ensure timely turn-around-times for results. Staff training and support to ensure that appropriate action is taken following a raised viral load, are also a must.

Africa, Asia, Europe
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Masking diversity – the problems with labels for key populations

'Mobile men with money': HIV prevention and the erasure of difference.

Aggleton P, Bell SA, Kelly-Hanku A. Glob Public Health. 2014;9(3):257-70. doi: 10.1080/17441692.2014.889736. Epub 2014 Mar 4.

Mobile Men with Money is one of the latest risk categories to enter into HIV prevention discourse. Used in countries in Asia, the Pacific and Africa, it refers to diverse groups of men (e.g. businessmen, miners and itinerant wage labourers) who, in contexts of high population movement and economic disparity, find themselves at heightened risk of HIV as members of a 'most-at-risk population', or render others vulnerable to infection. How adequate is such a description? Does it make sense to develop HIV prevention programmes from such understandings? The history of the epidemic points to major weaknesses in the use of terminologies such as 'sex worker' and 'men who have sex with men' when characterising often diverse populations. Each of these terms carries negative connotations, portraying the individuals concerned as being apart from the 'general population', and posing a threat to it. This paper examines the diversity of men classified as mobile men with money, pointing to significant variations in mobility, wealth and sexual networking conducive to HIV transmission. It highlights the patriarchal, heteronormative and gendered assumptions frequently underpinning use of the category and suggests more useful ways of understanding men, masculinity, population movement, relative wealth in relation to HIV vulnerability and risk.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: Criticism of the use of labels to identify groups of people considered to be at high risk of HIV infection is not new, but this paper serves as a timely reminder of the dangers of such labels and abbreviations. The authors explain why a term that has entered common usage in recent years ‘mobile men with money’, is inappropriate. They argue that the label plays to stereotypes of men as powerful risk takers and, usually, women as their vulnerable victims. The use of the term hides the diversity of men who move around because of their work and other activities, who may be in very different professions and circumstances. It also suggests that mobility is a negative activity, overlooking the great economic and other benefits of migration. They argue that the term is not helpful for HIV programming or activities.  It is unhelpful because it fails to take account of the structural factors that influence and shape the risks many men and women, face. It is often tempting to make use of abbreviations and catchy phrases in our work. This paper helps to remind us why we need to think carefully about terminology and labelling.

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Need for increased focus on mental health among HIV-positive pregnant women

Mental health of HIV-seropositive women during pregnancy and postpartum period: a comprehensive literature review.

Kapetanovic S, Dass-Brailsford P, Nora D, Talisman N. AIDS Behav. 2014 Mar 2. [Epub ahead of print]

With growing numbers of HIV-seropositive (HIV+) women of child-bearing age and increased access to effective clinical protocols for preventing mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV, mental health-related factors have become increasingly relevant due to their potential to affect the women's quality of life, obstetric outcomes and risk of MTCT. This review synthesizes evidence from 53 peer-reviewed publications examining mental health-related variables in pregnant and postpartum HIV+ women. The presentation of results is organized by the level of socioeconomic resources in the countries where studies were conducted (i.e., high-, middle-, and low-income countries). It is concluded that psychiatric symptoms, particularly depression, and mental health vulnerabilities (e.g., inadequate coping skills) are widespread among pregnant HIV+ women globally and have a potential to affect psychological well-being, quality of life and salient clinical outcomes. The current body of evidence provides rationale for developing and evaluating clinical and structural interventions aimed at improving mental health outcomes and their clinical correlates in pregnant HIV+ women.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: The comprehensive review summarises evidence from over fifty studies on a range of mental health variables in pregnant and post-partum HIV-positive women. The results highlight the need to screen for depression among pregnant HIV-positive women, and to provide appropriate referrals and programmes. Five randomised controlled trials were identified (all from low- and middle-income countries), with encouraging results of activities such as culturally-adapted psycho-educational programmes. Future randomised trials are needed to build on this evidence and assess the impact of such programmes not only on mental health outcomes, but also HIV-related factors such as antiretroviral therapy adherence and mother-to-child transmission of HIV. The absence of trials from high-income countries is noticeable, indicating the need for further focus on mental health needs of HIV-positive pregnant women in these settings.

Africa, Asia, Europe, Northern America
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Pervasive geographic and transportation-related barriers to HIV services use in sub-Saharan Africa

Impact of geographic and transportation-related barriers on HIV outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review.

Lankowski AJ, Siedner MJ, Bangsberg DR, Tsai AC. AIDS Behav. 2014 Feb 23. [Epub ahead of print]

Difficulty obtaining reliable transportation to clinic is frequently cited as a barrier to HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Numerous studies have sought to characterize the impact of geographic and transportation-related barriers on HIV outcomes in SSA, but to date there has been no systematic attempt to summarize these findings. In this systematic review, we summarized this body of literature. We searched for studies conducted in SSA examining the following outcomes in the HIV care continuum: (1) voluntary counseling and testing, (2) pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) linkage to care, (3) loss to follow-up and mortality, and (4) ART adherence and/or viral suppression. We identified 34 studies containing 52 unique estimates of association between a geographic or transportation-related barrier and an HIV outcome. There was an inverse effect in 23 estimates (44 %), a null association in 26 (50 %), and a paradoxical beneficial impact in 3 (6 %). We conclude that geographic and transportation-related barriers are associated with poor outcomes across the continuum of HIV care.

Abstract

Editor’s notes: This systematic review focuses on the importance of structural barriers to uptake of HIV treatment and care. Specifically, these are the association between geographic and transportation-related barriers and poor outcomes among HIV positive persons. Most of the quantitative and qualitative evidence reviewed in this paper (from 66 studies in sub-Saharan Africa) support the authors’ hypothesis that geographic and transportation-related barriers contribute to poor outcomes in HIV-positive individuals at all points along the continuum of HIV care. These were indexed in terms of voluntary counselling and testing, pre- antiretroviral therapy linkage to care, loss to follow-up, and adherence and/or viral suppression. A lack of association between these barriers and HIV services use was more common in studies where the study had clear limitations. For example, the use of self-reported as opposed to objective measures of exposures, small sample sizes, and the lack of control for confounding variables. The study has important policy implications related to the decentralisation of HIV treatment and care services, point-of-care services delivery, the provision of transportation stipends, the simplification of management protocols, and the reduction in the frequency of follow up visits.

Africa
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Efavirenz dose reduction could help scale up antiretroviral therapy access

Efficacy of 400 mg efavirenz versus standard 600 mg dose in HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naive adults (ENCORE1): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial.

ENCORE1 Study Group. Lancet. 2014 Feb 7. pii: S0140-6736(13)62187-X. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62187-X. [Epub ahead of print]

Background: The optimum dose of key antiretroviral drugs is often overlooked during product development. The ENCORE1 study compared the efficacy and safety of reduced dose efavirenz with standard dose efavirenz in combination with tenofovir and emtricitabine as first-line treatment for HIV infection. An effective and safe reduced dose could yield meaningful cost savings.

Methods: ENCORE1 is a continuing non-inferiority trial in HIV-1-infected antiretroviral-naive adults in 38 clinical sites in 13 countries. Participants (plasma HIV-RNA >1000 log10 copies per mL, CD4 T-cell count 50-500 cells per µL) were randomly assigned by a computer-generated sequence with a blocking factor of four (stratified by clinical site and by screening viral load) to receive tenofovir plus emtricitabine with either a reduced daily dose (400 mg) or a standard dose (600 mg) of efavirenz. Participants, physicians, and all other trial staff were masked to treatment group. The primary endpoint was the difference in proportions of participants with plasma HIV-RNA of less than 200 copies per mL at 48 weeks. Treatment groups were regarded as non-inferior if the lower limit of the 95% CI for the difference in viral load was less than -10% by modified intention-to-treat analysis. Adverse events were summarised by treatment.

Findings: The modified intention-to-treat analysis consisted of 630 patients (efavirenz 400=321; efavirenz 600=309). 32% were women; 37% were African, 33% were Asian, and 30% were white. The mean baseline CD4 cell count was 273 cells per µL (SD 99) and median plasma HIV-RNA was 4.75 log10 copies per mL (IQR 0.88). The proportion of participants with a viral load below 200 copies per mL at week 48 was 94.1% for efavirenz 400 mg and 92.2% for 600 mg (difference 1.85%, 95% CI -2.1 to 5.79). CD4 T-cell counts at week 48 were significantly higher for the 400 mg group than for the 600 mg group (mean difference 25 cells per µL, 95% CI 6-44; p=0.01). We recorded no difference in grade or number of patients reporting adverse events (efavirenz 400=89.1%, efavirenz 600=88.4%; difference 0.75%, 95% CI -4.19 to 5.69; p=0.77). Study drug-related adverse events were significantly more frequent in the 600 mg group than in the 400 mg group (146% [47] vs 118 [37]), difference -10.5%, 95% CI -18.2 to -2.8; p=0.01) and significantly fewer patients with these events stopped treatment (400 mg=6 [2%], 600 mg=18 [6%], difference -3.96%, 95% CI -6.96 to -0.95; p=0.01).

Interpretation: Our findings suggest that a reduced dose of 400 mg efavirenz is non-inferior to the standard dose of 600 mg, when combined with tenofovir and emtricitabine during 48 weeks in ART-naive adults with HIV-1 infection. Adverse events related to the study drug were more frequent with 600 mg efavirenz than with 400 mg. Lower dose efavirenz should be recommended as part of routine care.

Abstract access

Editor’s notes: Nearly 10 million people in low- and middle-income countries were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2012, with plans to expand coverage to 15 million by 2015. Several challenges must be overcome if this target is to be achieved. One of the most pertinent of these is how to fund this expansion in the current economic climate. Significant progress has already been made in reducing the cost of first-line drugs. The authors of this paper propose an alternative approach to lowering drug costs, namely dose reduction.

Evidence supporting the 600mg dose of efavirenz used in clinical practice is weak, with no difference found in the proportion of patients achieving viral suppression in the original dose finding trials of 200mg, 400mg and 600mg (unpublished). This trial in ART-naive individuals found that 400mg was non-inferior to 600mg of efavirenz in terms of viral suppression over 48 weeks of follow-up. Findings were similar when stratified by ethnic group (African, Asian, other) and body mass index, both factors which influence drug concentrations. Furthermore, fewer patients on 400mg reported adverse events which were related to efavirenz, and fewer patients with drug-related side effects on this dose stopped efavirenz. These promising results support a dose reduction strategy. However, longer term outcomes need to be evaluated and efficacy studies in patients with tuberculosis are needed before the 400mg dose is recommended for use in routine clinical practice. Certainly, if drug companies agree to manufacture this dose at scale, preferably in fixed-dose combination tablets, cost-savings could be considerable.  

Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America
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