Articles tagged as "Rwanda"

Late antiretroviral therapy start persists for children under two years of age in low- and middle-income countries

Immunodeficiency in children starting antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Koller M, Patel K, Chi BH, Wools-Kaloustian K, Dicko F, Chokephaibulkit K, Chimbetete C, Avila D, Hazra R, Ayaya S, Leroy V, Truong HK, Egger M, Davies MA, IeDEA, NISDI, PHACS and IMPAACT 219C studies.  J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2015 Jan 1;68(1):62-72. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000000380.

Background: The CD4 cell count or percent (CD4%) at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is an important prognostic factor in children starting therapy and an important indicator of program performance. We describe trends and determinants of CD4 measures at cART initiation in children from low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Methods: We included children aged <16 years from clinics participating in a collaborative study spanning sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the United States. Missing CD4 values at cART start were estimated through multiple imputation. Severe immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization criteria. Analyses used generalized additive mixed models adjusted for age, country, and calendar year.

Results: A total of 34 706 children from 9 low-income, 6 lower middle-income, 4 upper middle-income countries, and 1 high-income country (United States) were included; 20 624 children (59%) had severe immunodeficiency. In low-income countries, the estimated prevalence of children starting cART with severe immunodeficiency declined from 76% in 2004 to 63% in 2010. Corresponding figures for lower middle-income countries were from 77% to 66% and for upper middle-income countries from 75% to 58%. In the United States, the percentage decreased from 42% to 19% during the period 1996 to 2006. In low- and middle-income countries, infants and children aged 12-15 years had the highest prevalence of severe immunodeficiency at cART initiation.

Conclusions: Despite progress in most low- and middle-income countries, many children continue to start cART with severe immunodeficiency. Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV-infected children to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with immunodeficiency must remain a global public health priority.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: This article describes trends and determinants of CD4 cell measures at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in about 35 000 children in low, middle, and high-income countries. Temporal trends in CD4 measures at ART initiation are a useful indicator of the health system’s ability to identify and treat eligible children in a timely fashion. They are also a useful measure of responsiveness to guideline changes.

Previous WHO guidelines recommended early ART initiation, regardless of immunologic or clinical thresholds. But the authors found that in 2010, approximately two-thirds of children below two years of age, in low- and middle-income countries were still starting ART with severe immunodeficiency.

Delayed country-level implementation of WHO guidelines, poor access to early infant diagnosis, slow turn-around time of test results, and limited ART availability for infants and young children are all contributing factors to this delayed ART initiation. The authors point out that timely diagnosis of paediatric HIV does not necessarily result in timely ART. The main reasons for this diagnosis to treatment gap include HIV diagnostic tests and paediatric ART being located at separate sites without robust referral mechanisms between services. There are challenges with CD4 measurement to determine eligibility. These include access to tests, turn-around time and interpretation of results and health care worker discomfort with treating children.

Currently, only 22% of children living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa are receiving ART. To decrease the treatment gap among children, WHO 2013 guidelines recommend universal ART for all children living with HIV, aged below five years of age, irrespective of CD4 count or clinical stage. Removing the requirement for a CD4 measurement also removes the time lag while waiting for CD4 results. Thus the guidelines aim both to increase treatment accessibility and to accelerate treatment initiation for all children. 

HIV Treatment
Africa, Asia, Northern America
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Associations between HIV and intimate partner violence in ten African countries

Intimate partner violence and HIV in ten sub-Saharan African countries: what do the Demographic and Health Surveys tell us?

Durevall D, Lindskog A. Lancet Glob Health. 2015 Jan;3(1):e34-43. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70343-2. Epub 2014 Nov 21.

Background: Many studies have identified a significant positive relation between intimate partner violence and HIV in women, but adjusted analyses have produced inconsistent results. We systematically assessed the association, and under what condition it holds, using nationally representative data from ten sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on physical, sexual, and emotional violence, and on the role of male controlling behaviour.

Methods: We assessed cross-sectional data from 12 Demographic and Health Surveys from ten countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The data are nationally representative for women aged 15-49 years. We estimated odds ratios using logistic regression with and without controls for demographic and socioeconomic factors and survey-region fixed effects. Exposure was measured using physical, sexual, emotional violence, and male controlling behaviour, and combinations of these. The samples used were ever-married women, married women, and women in their first union. Depending on specification, the sample size varied between 11 231 and 45 550 women.

Findings: There were consistent and strong associations between HIV infection in women and physical violence, emotional violence, and male controlling behaviour (adjusted odds ratios ranged from 1.2 to 1.7; p values ranged from <0.0001 to 0.0058). The evidence for an association between sexual violence and HIV was weaker and only significant in the sample with women in their first union. The associations were dependent on the presence of controlling behaviour and a high regional HIV prevalence rate; when women were exposed to only physical, sexual, or emotional violence, and no controlling behaviour, or when HIV prevalence rates are lower than 5%, the adjusted odds ratios were, in general, close to 1 and insignificant.

Interpretation: The findings indicate that male controlling behaviour in its own right, or as an indicator of ongoing or severe violence, puts women at risk of HIV infection. HIV prevention interventions should focus on high-prevalence areas and men with controlling behaviour, in addition to violence.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: Despite two cohort studies illustrating that exposures to intimate partner violence are associated with incident HIV infection, evidence from cross-sectional analysis of population data is more mixed. Using Demographic and Health Surveys data for women aged 15-49 years from 10 sub-Saharan countries, this paper illustrates that HIV infection is strongly associated with physical violence and/or emotional violence and controlling behaviour, with a weaker association with sexual violence. For all forms of violence, the association was strongest among women who also reported that their partner was controlling, and in settings where HIV prevalence exceeds five percent. This study adds to the growing literature on HIV and intimate partner violence that suggests that risk is not only linked to forced sex, but rather to being in a violent and controlling relationship. The paper highlights the importance of male control as a risk factor for HIV, and supports the need for HIV prevention programmes that focus on reducing intimate partner violence in higher-prevalence settings.

Africa
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Increasing transmitted resistance to antiretroviral therapy in low/middle-income countries - highest prevalence in MSM

Global burden of transmitted HIV drug resistance and HIV-exposure categories: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Pham QD, Wilson DP, Law MG, Kelleher AD, Zhang L. AIDS. 2014 Nov 28;28(18):2751-62. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000494.

Objectives: Our aim was to review the global disparities of transmitted HIV drug resistance (TDR) in antiretroviral-naive MSM, people who inject drugs (PWID) and heterosexual populations in both high-income and low/middle-income countries.

Design/methods: We undertook a systematic review of the peer-reviewed English literature on TDR (1999-2013). Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to pool TDR prevalence and compare the odds of TDR across at-risk groups.

Results: A total of 212 studies were included in this review. Areas with greatest TDR prevalence were North America (MSM: 13.7%, PWID: 9.1%, heterosexuals: 10.5%); followed by western Europe (MSM: 11.0%, PWID: 5.7%, heterosexuals: 6.9%) and South America (MSM: 8.3%, PWID: 13.5%, heterosexuals: 7.5%). Our data indicated disproportionately high TDR burdens in MSM in Oceania (Australia 15.5%), eastern Europe/central Asia (10.2%) and east Asia (7.8%). TDR epidemics have stabilized in high-income countries, with a higher prevalence (range 10.9-12.6%) in MSM than in PWID (5.2-8.3%) and heterosexuals (6.4-9.0%) over 1999-2013. In low/middle-income countries, TDR prevalence in all at-risk groups in 2009-2013 almost doubled than that in 2004-2008 (MSM: 7.8 vs. 4.2%, P = 0.011; heterosexuals: 4.1 vs. 2.6%, P < 0.001; PWID: 4.8 vs. 2.4%, P = 0.265, respectively). The risk of TDR infection was significantly greater in MSM than that in heterosexuals and PWID. We observed increasing trends of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors among MSM.

Conclusion: TDR prevalence is stabilizing in high-income countries, but increasing in low/middle-income countries. This is likely due to the low, but increasing, coverage of antiretroviral therapy in these settings. Transmission of TDR is most prevalent among MSM worldwide.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: HIV mutates very rapidly, and many early antiretroviral agents had a low genetic barrier to the development of resistance. Thus the emergence of virus resistant to antiretroviral agents, particularly to early drug classes, was inevitable. Surveillance for drug-resistant virus among people with no prior history of taking antiretroviral drugs (transmitted drug resistance) is essential to monitor the spread of drug resistance at population level.

This systematic review aimed to compare transmitted drug resistance in different geographical regions and between subpopulations of HIV-positive people by likely route of transmission. Transmitted resistance was most prevalent in high income settings. This is not surprising given wide use of suboptimal drug regimens before effective triple therapy was available. Reassuringly, the prevalence of transmitted resistance seems to have stabilised in high-income settings. The increase in transmitted resistance in low and middle income countries is of more concern. It is not surprising, given that first-line regimens comprising two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor are vulnerable to the development of resistance if the drug supply is interrupted or adherence is suboptimal. In addition, if viral load monitoring is not available, people remain on failing drug regimens for longer, and thus have more risk of transmitting resistant virus.

Within the subpopulations examined in this review, transmitted resistance was consistently higher in men who have sex with men, suggesting that resistance testing prior to treatment is particularly valuable for this population.

Limitations of the review include exclusion of studies that did not compare transmitted resistance between the specified subpopulations, and small sample size in many subgroups.

Continued surveillance for transmitted drug resistance is critical. This is most important in settings where individualised resistance testing is not available. This will ensure that people starting antiretroviral therapy receive treatment that will suppress their viral load effectively. Wider use of viral load monitoring, combined with access to effective second and third line regimens, will also help limit spread of drug resistance.

HIV Treatment
Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Benin, Botswana, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Chad, China, Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Estonia, Ethiopia, France, Gabon, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Latvia, Malawi, Malaysia, Moldova, Mozambique, Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Uganda, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United Republic of Tanzania, United States of America, Viet Nam, Zambia, Zimbabwe
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Co-enrolling family members improves retention of women on antiretroviral therapy

Family matters: co-enrollment of family members into care is associated with improved outcomes for HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral therapy.

Myer L, Abrams EJ, Zhang Y, Duong J, El-Sadr WM, Carter RJ. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2014 Dec 1;67 Suppl 4:S243-9. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000000379.

Background: Although there is widespread interest in understanding how models of care for delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence patient outcomes, family-focused approaches have received little attention. In particular, there have been few investigations of whether the co-enrollment of HIV-infected family members may improve adult ART outcomes over time.

Methods: We examined the association between co-enrollment of HIV-infected family members into care and outcomes of women initiating ART in 12 HIV care and treatment programs across sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from the mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) Plus Initiative, women starting ART were categorized according to the co-enrollment of an HIV-infected partner and/or HIV-infected child within the same program. Mortality and loss to follow-up were assessed for up to 5 years after women's ART initiation.

Results: Of the 2877 women initiating ART included in the analysis, 31% (n = 880) had at least 1 HIV-infected family member enrolled into care at the same program, including 24% (n = 689) who had an HIV-infected male partner, and 10% (n = 295) who had an HIV-infected child co-enrolled. There was no significant difference in the risk of death of women by family co-enrollment status (P = 0.286). However, the risk of loss to follow-up was greatest among women who did not have an HIV-infected family member co-enrolled (19% after 36 months on ART) compared with women who had an HIV-infected family member co-enrolled (3%-8% after 36 months on ART) (P < 0.001). These associations persisted after adjustment for demographic and clinical covariates and were consistent across countries and care programs.

Discussion: These data provide novel evidence for the association between adult outcomes on ART and co-enrollment of HIV-infected family members into care at the same program. Interventions that build on women's family contexts warrant further consideration in both research and policies to promote retention in ART services across sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: With the dramatic increase in the number of people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) over the last decade, further understanding of the impact of different service delivery models on treatment outcomes (including death and retention-in-care) is needed. Previous studies have compared health systems approaches such as primary care versus hospital delivery, task-shifting to nurses and community-based approaches. This study is one of the first to focus on the impact of family-focused approaches on adult outcomes. In this large multi-country study of women enrolled in prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes, co-enrolment of a family member living with HIV was not associated with mortality among women, but co-enrollment was associated with an approximate halving of the risk of being lost to follow up. This association was consistent across different sub-groups of age, parity, partner status and location. The strength and consistency of the finding highlights the central role that family and social support can play in shaping health-seeking behaviours among people living with HIV. Further research would include the effect of co-enrolment on treatment outcomes among men, and exploration of specific aspects of co-enrolment, such as disclosure. 

Africa
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Facility-level costs for antiretroviral therapy are much lower than previously understood

Multi-country analysis of treatment costs for HIV/AIDS (MATCH): facility-level ART unit cost analysis in Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia.

Tagar E, Sundaram M, Condliffe K, Matatiyo B, Chimbwandira F, Chilima B, Mwanamanga R, Moyo C, Chitah BM, Nyemazi JP, Assefa Y, Pillay Y, Mayer S, Shear L, Dain M, Hurley R, Kumar R, McCarthy T, Batra P, Gwinnell D, Diamond S, Over M. PLoS One. 2014 Nov 12;9(11):e108304. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108304. eCollection 2014.

Background: Today's uncertain HIV funding landscape threatens to slow progress towards treatment goals. Understanding the costs of antiretroviral therapy (ART) will be essential for governments to make informed policy decisions about the pace of scale-up under the 2013 WHO HIV Treatment Guidelines, which increase the number of people eligible for treatment from 17.6 million to 28.6 million. The study presented here is one of the largest of its kind and the first to describe the facility-level cost of ART in a random sample of facilities in Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia.

Methods & Findings: In 2010-2011, comprehensive data on one year of facility-level ART costs and patient outcomes were collected from 161 facilities, selected using stratified random sampling. Overall, facility-level ART costs were significantly lower than expected in four of the five countries, with a simple average of $208 per patient-year (ppy) across Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda and Zambia. Costs were higher in South Africa, at $682 ppy. This included medications, laboratory services, direct and indirect personnel, patient support, equipment and administrative services. Facilities demonstrated the ability to retain patients alive and on treatment at these costs, although outcomes for established patients (2-8% annual loss to follow-up or death) were better than outcomes for new patients in their first year of ART (77-95% alive and on treatment).

Conclusions: This study illustrated that the facility-level costs of ART are lower than previously understood in these five countries. While limitations must be considered, and costs will vary across countries, this suggests that expanded treatment coverage may be affordable. Further research is needed to understand investment costs of treatment scale-up, non-facility costs and opportunities for more efficient resource allocation.

Abstract Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: This paper describes the facility-level costs for antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery in 161 facilities across five countries. The scale of this study is impressive. At 161 facilities, it is one of the largest existing evaluations of facility-level costs for delivering ART. Collecting detailed cost data is a time- and resource-intensive process, and there is remarkable value in this quantity of cost data being made available.

The results are also surprising. The average cost for ART at the facility level in four of five countries ($208 per person per year) is consistently much lower than previously understood. Primary costing studies in low- and middle-income settings typically find some level of inconsistency between facilities, reflecting room to improve efficiency. This study found more variation in South Africa than in other settings, but relatively little variation overall. It would be interesting to find out in more detail whether this was a function of missing data, or whether the facilities included in the analysis were consistently efficient. If the latter, this may be an indication of improving efficiency in delivery of HIV treatment services.

The most exciting outcome from this study is the low costs found across settings. A number of existing studies of ART costs, all published between 2004-2008, find average facility costs ranging from $650 to $1000 per person, per year. The authors explain their lower costs as a reflection of reduced ART drug prices over the last ten years. Such a dramatic drop in costs is encouraging, particularly in the context of current efforts to expand access to ART.

Africa
Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Africa, Zambia
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Why pregnant women and mothers living with HIV do not access, or do not stay in care

A systematic review of individual and contextual factors affecting ART initiation, adherence, and retention for HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women.

Hodgson I, Plummer ML, Konopka SN, Colvin CJ, Jonas E, Albertini J, Amzel A, Fogg KP. PLoS One. 2014 Nov 5;9(11):e111421. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111421. eCollection 2014.

Background: Despite progress reducing maternal mortality, HIV-related maternal deaths remain high, accounting, for example, for up to 24 percent of all pregnancy-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is effective in improving outcomes among HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women, yet rates of initiation, adherence, and retention remain low. This systematic literature review synthesized evidence about individual and contextual factors affecting ART use among HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women.

Methods: Searches were conducted for studies addressing the population (HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women), intervention (ART), and outcomes of interest (initiation, adherence, and retention). Quantitative and qualitative studies published in English since January 2008 were included. Individual and contextual enablers and barriers to ART use were extracted and organized thematically within a framework of individual, interpersonal, community, and structural categories.

Results: Thirty-four studies were included in the review. Individual-level factors included both those within and outside a woman's awareness and control (e.g., commitment to child's health or age). Individual-level barriers included poor understanding of HIV, ART, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and difficulty managing practical demands of ART. At an interpersonal level, disclosure to a spouse and spousal involvement in treatment were associated with improved initiation, adherence, and retention. Fear of negative consequences was a barrier to disclosure. At a community level, stigma was a major barrier. Key structural barriers and enablers were related to health system use and engagement, including access to services and health worker attitudes.

Conclusions: To be successful, programs seeking to expand access to and continued use of ART by integrating maternal health and HIV services must identify and address the relevant barriers and enablers in their own context that are described in this review. Further research on this population, including those who drop out of or never access health services, is needed to inform effective implementation.

Abstract Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: This systematic review is one of three by the same team, related to HIV and maternal mortality. The review findings illustrate that the individual and contextual factors which affect antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, adherence and retention for pregnant/postpartum women living with HIV are numerous. Fears over disclosure, and consequent stigma and discrimination feature in many of the studies reviewed. Practical barriers might be overcome, by making services more accessible. The lack of knowledge about HIV and treatment among some women may be addressed through information campaigns. However, the fear of negative consequences as a result of disclosure, even to health workers, presents significant barriers to care. This is something that is of particular note as Option B+ is rolled out. An important strength of this review is the combination of qualitative and quantitative studies. The meticulous description of the approach to the review is also welcome. The authors’ call for ‘consistent, standardised and appropriate measures of adherence and retention’ with a ‘longitudinal component’, is a valuable suggestion as the performance of countries in providing Option B+ begins to be compared.

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More, older people living with HIV, but how many more?

Increasing trends in HIV prevalence among people aged 50 years and older: evidence from estimates and survey data.

Mahy M, Autenrieth CS, Stanecki K, Wynd S. AIDS. 2014 Sep 12. [Epub ahead of print]

Objective: To present the most recent 2013 UNAIDS estimates of HIV prevalence among people aged 50 years and older, and to validate these estimates using data from national household surveys.

Design: Modelled estimates of HIV prevalence were validated against nationally representative household survey measures of HIV prevalence.

Methods: The UNAIDS 2013 HIV estimates were used to compute HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV aged 50 years and older. Sex-specific HIV-prevalence rates by 5-year age groups were calculated from nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013, and were compared to prevalence rates from the modelled estimates. The ratios of the prevalence rates from the two sources were analysed.

Results: In 2013, an estimated 4.2 million (4.0-4.5 million) people aged 50 years and older were living with HIV. The global HIV prevalence among older individuals more than doubled in almost all the 5-year age groups since 1995. There was a relatively good agreement between the modelled HIV-prevalence rates and the survey-based rates among men and women aged 50-54 years (0.90 and 0.98 median ratio, respectively), whereas for 55-59-year-olds, the differences were more notable (ratios of 0.63 for men and 0.9 for women).

Conclusion: Both data sources suggest HIV-prevalence rates among people aged over 50 have increased steadily in recent years. Care and treatment services need to address the specific needs of older people living with HIV. Action is needed to incorporate older age groups into HIV surveillance systems.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: According to the most recent estimates, the global number of people above age 50 years and living with HIV, has more than doubled since the mid-1990s. In southern Africa, it has more than tripled. These numbers are expected to increase further as treatment programmes continue to expand. This study by the UNAIDS secretariat, underscores the numeric importance of this population subgroup. Above all, it highlights how little we know about the epidemic in older adults. The authors compare UNAIDS (modelled) HIV prevalence estimates with those from nationally representative surveys. They find good correspondence among 50-54 year-old men and women. The discrepancy between the two sources are more pronounced above age 54 years where the UNAIDS figures tend to fall short of the empirical estimates. This is particularly the case for men. HIV prevalence estimates among older women are rather scarce as surveys and data collection at antenatal clinics typically focus on women of reproductive age. Longer than expected survival of people living with HIV and higher than anticipated HIV incidence at older ages, could explain the discrepancy between the estimates. But we need more and better data about these age groups to be in a position to adjudicate between these explanations.

Epidemiology
Africa
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Does pregnancy accelerate HIV progression?

Pregnancy and HIV disease progression: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Calvert C, Ronsmans C. Trop Med Int Health. 2014 Oct 31. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12412. [Epub ahead of print]

Objective: To assess whether pregnancy accelerates HIV disease progression.

Methods: Studies comparing progression to HIV-related illness, low CD4 count, AIDS-defining illness, HIV-related death, or any death in HIV-infected pregnant and non-pregnant women were included. Relative risks (RR) for each outcome were combined using random effects meta-analysis and were stratified by antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability.

Results: 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. Pregnancy was not associated with progression to HIV-related illness [summary RR: 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66-2.61], AIDS-defining illness (summary RR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.74-1.25) or mortality (summary RR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.62-1.53), but there was an association with low CD4 counts (summary RR: 1.41, 95%CI: 0.99-2.02) and HIV-related death (summary RR: 1.65, 95%CI: 1.06-2.57). In settings where ART was available, there was no evidence that pregnancy accelerated progress to HIV/AIDS-defining illnesses, death and drop in CD4 count. In settings without ART availability, effect estimates were consistent with pregnancy increasing the risk of progression to HIV/AIDS-defining illnesses and HIV-related or all-cause mortality, but there were too few studies to draw meaningful conclusions.

Conclusions: In the absence of ART, pregnancy is associated with small but appreciable increases in the risk of several negative HIV outcomes, but the evidence is too weak to draw firm conclusions. When ART is available, the effects of pregnancy on HIV disease progression are attenuated and there is little reason to discourage healthy HIV-infected women who desire to become pregnant from doing so.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: The suppression of cell-mediated immunity during pregnancy is associated with increased susceptibility to and/or severity of many infections. Therefore the question of whether pregnancy accelerates HIV disease progression in HIV-positive women is pertinent. A previous systematic review published in the late 1990s found weak evidence that the odds of acquiring an AIDS-defining illness or death were higher among HIV-positive pregnant women than HIV-positive non-pregnant women. The findings from this meta-analysis also suggest that in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART), pregnancy is associated with an increase in the risk of several negative HIV outcomes. Fortunately ART appears to diminish the effects of pregnancy on HIV progression.  The authors also draw attention to the methodological weaknesses of the studies included and highlight the need for better quality data, examining whether pregnancy aggravates HIV progression.

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Counting and classifying global deaths

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, et al. Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8. Epub 2014 Jul 22.

Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.

Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1.8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1.7 million to 2.1 million), 29.2 million prevalent HIV cases (28.1 to 31.7), and 1.3 million HIV deaths (1.3 to 1.5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1.7 million deaths (1.6 million to 1.9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19.1 million life-years (16.6 million to 21.5 million) have been saved, 70.3% (65.4 to 76.1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$ 4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.5 million (7.4 million to 7.7 million), prevalence was 11.9 million (11.6 million to 12.2 million), and number of deaths was 1.4 million (1.3 million to 1.5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.1 million (6.9 million to 7.3 million), prevalence was 11.2 million (10.8 million to 11.6 million), and number of deaths was 1.3 million (1.2 million to 1.4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64.0% of cases (63.6 to 64.3) and 64.7% of deaths (60.8 to 70.3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1.2 million deaths (1.1 million to 1.4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31.5% (15.7 to 44.1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18.7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study uses standard methods to compare and track over time national distributions of deaths by cause, and the prevalence of disease and disability.  This detailed report focuses on HIV, TB and Malaria. It presents regional summaries of incidence, prevalence and mortality rates, and national estimates of the number of male and female deaths and new infections. Point estimates are shown for 2013, and annualised rates of change for 1990-2000 and 2000-2013. These highlight the contrasting trends in disease impact before and after the formulation of the Millennium Development Goal to combat these diseases.  The global peak of HIV mortality occurred in 2005, but regional annualised rates of change for 2000-2013 indicate that HIV deaths are still increasing significantly in east Asia, southern Africa, and most rapidly in eastern Europe.

The GBD 2013 global estimates of new infections and deaths agree closely with the corresponding estimates made by UNAIDS. But there are significant differences in the respective estimates of the number of people currently living with HIV (UNAIDS estimates are some 18% higher), and historical trends in AIDS deaths, with UNAIDS judging that the recent fall has been steeper. These differences are attributed primarily to methods used in the GBD study to ensure that the sum of deaths from specific causes fits the estimated all cause total, and to varying assumptions about historical survival patterns following HIV infection. 

It may be worthwhile to look at a comment by Michel Sidibé, Mark Dybul, and Deborah Birx in the Lancet on MDG 6 and beyond: from halting and reversing AIDS to ending the epidemic which refers to this study.

Epidemiology
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More data needed from routine programme data on antiretroviral therapy cascade outcomes among female sex workers

Antiretroviral therapy uptake, attrition, adherence and outcomes among HIV-infected female sex workers: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Mountain E, Mishra S, Vickerman P, Pickles M, Gilks C, Boily MC. PLoS One. 2014 Sep 29;9(9):e105645. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0105645. eCollection 2014.

Purpose: We aimed to characterize the antiretroviral therapy (ART) cascade among female sex workers (FSWs) globally.

Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase and MEDLINE in March 2014 to identify studies reporting on ART uptake, attrition, adherence, and outcomes (viral suppression or CD4 count improvements) among HIV-infected FSWs globally. When possible, available estimates were pooled using random effects meta-analyses (with heterogeneity assessed using Cochran's Q test and I2 statistic).

Results: 39 studies, reporting on 21 different FSW study populations in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Central America and the Caribbean, were included. Current ART use among HIV-infected FSWs was 38% (95% CI: 29%-48%, I2 = 96%, 15 studies), and estimates were similar between high-, and low- and middle-income countries. Ever ART use among HIV-infected FSWs was greater in high-income countries (80%; 95% CI: 48%-94%, I2 = 70%, 2 studies) compared to low- and middle-income countries (36%; 95% CI: 7%-81%, I2 = 99%, 3 studies). Loss to follow-up after ART initiation was 6% (95% CI: 3%-11%, I2 = 0%, 3 studies) and death after ART initiation was 6% (95% CI: 3%-11%, I2 = 0%, 3 studies). The fraction adherent to ≥95% of prescribed pills was 76% (95% CI: 68%-83%, I2 = 36%, 4 studies), and 57% (95% CI: 46%-68%, I2 = 82%, 4 studies) of FSWs on ART were virally suppressed. Median gains in CD4 count after 6 to 36 months on ART, ranged between 103 and 241 cells/mm3 (4 studies).

Conclusions: Despite global increases in ART coverage, there is a concerning lack of published data on HIV treatment for FSWs. Available data suggest that FSWs can achieve levels of ART uptake, retention, adherence, and treatment response comparable to that seen among women in the general population, but these data are from only a few research settings. More routine programme data on HIV treatment among FSWs across settings should be collected and disseminated.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: Female sex workers remain a key population for HIV prevention, treatment and care. This is the first paper to systematically review and quantify the HIV treatment cascade among sex workers globally. The review highlights the scarcity of published data on HIV treatment among sex workers. For example, data were identified from only five countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Benin, Burkina Faso, Kenya, Rwanda and Zimbabwe) and a lack of data from routine (non research) settings. Further, most studies presented data on current antiretroviral therapy (ART) or CD4 count at initiation rather than follow-up data on attrition, adherence or viral suppression. The results suggest that research cohorts have been largely successful at enrolling and retaining female sex workers on ART, but there may be an issue with adherence. Adherence, in the few studies where it was measured (usually by self-report or pill counts) was high, and similar to estimates from the general population. But just over half of the participants initiating ART achieved viral suppression in the four studies which looked at this. This indicates scope for improvements in adherence (and adherence measurement) in these populations. This is possibly due to individual-level and structural-level barriers that sex workers face when receiving HIV treatment and care

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