Articles tagged as "United States of America"

Can a simple risk score predict chronic kidney disease among people living with HIV?

Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study.

Mocroft A, Lundgren JD, Ross M, Law M, Reiss P, Kirk O, Smith C, Wentworth D, Neuhaus J, Fux CA, Moranne O, Morlat P, Johnson MA, Ryom L, D:A:D study group, the Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort, and the INSIGHT, SMART, and ESPRIT study groups. PLoS Med. 2015 Mar 31;12(3):e1001809. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001809. eCollection 2015.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice.

Methods and findings: A total of 17 954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103 185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score <0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0-4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1702 (95% CI 1166-3367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18 376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria.

Conclusions: Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: The nephrotoxicity of antiretroviral drugs, particularly tenofovir, is of concern, particularly where there is limited access to laboratory monitoring of kidney function. The development of kidney impairment among people with HIV is associated with poor outcomes, and in low resource settings where dialysis is not available this can be catastrophic.

This study, like previous work, attempts to address this problem by developing a risk score for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The strength of this study is the availability of data for over 17 000 men and women living with HIV enrolled in cohort studies for many years, and in over 40 countries globally. The resulting risk score uses nine simple clinical variables which predict CKD both overall, and after starting potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals. A short risk score, not including cardiovascular risk factors, which may be more suitable for low resource settings, shows almost as good a prediction of CKD.

So will this risk score become widely used in clinical decision making? For high income countries this tool may be useful to identify people where strategies to prevent cardiovascular and renal disease are best focussed. It may also be useful to identify people at high risk of developing CKD for whom use of tenofovir may be unacceptable, especially when monitoring of kidney function is limited. However, few of the enrolled people were from low and middle income countries, and there was limited information on the race of participants. Therefore, the risk score may need to be validated in low resource settings before it can be widely used. Whether the use of the tool would help to improve clinical outcomes where kidney function is frequently monitored is unclear.

Meanwhile, a new drug formulation, tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), is currently in clinical trials. This appears to be associated with less renal toxicity, and to be safe and well tolerated among adults with decreased kidney function. If future trial results support this evidence, and tenofovir alafenamide becomes widely available, concern about drug nephrotoxicity may become a less pressing clinical issue.

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The impact of homophobia and criminalisation on MSM HIV vulnerability worldwide

Sexual stigma, criminalization, investment, and access to HIV services among men who have sex with men worldwide.

Arreola S, Santos GM, Beck J, Sundararaj M, Wilson PA, Hebert P, Makofane K, Do TD, Ayala G. AIDS Behav. 2015 Feb;19(2):227-34. doi: 10.1007/s10461-014-0869-x.

Globally, HIV disproportionately affects men who have sex with men (MSM). This study explored associations between access to HIV services and (1) individual-level perceived sexual stigma; (2) country-level criminalization of homosexuality; and (3) country-level investment in HIV services for MSM. 3340 MSM completed an online survey assessing access to HIV services. MSM from over 115 countries were categorized according to criminalization of homosexuality policy and investment in HIV services targeting MSM. Lower access to condoms, lubricants, and HIV testing were each associated with greater perceived sexual stigma, existence of homosexuality criminalization policies, and less investment in HIV services. Lower access to HIV treatment was associated with greater perceived sexual stigma and criminalization. Criminalization of homosexuality and low investment in HIV services were both associated with greater perceived sexual stigma. Efforts to prevent and treat HIV among MSM should be coupled with structural interventions to reduce stigma, overturn homosexuality criminalization policies, and increase investment in MSM-specific HIV services.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: Homosexuality is still illegal in 39% of the 193 UN recognised countries. This criminalisation likely increases HIV vulnerability among gay men and other men who have sex with men. In this study, 3340 gay men and other men who have sex with men from more than 115 countries completed an online survey about their perceptions of homophobia and their ease of accessing basic HIV prevention services. The authors conducted an ecological analysis to examine the relationship between the uptake of HIV services among gay men and other men who have sex with men. The authors looked at structural factors at the individual level which included their perceptions of homophobia within the society in which they live and at the country level including criminalising policies. More than 50% of respondents reported difficulty in accessing HIV services including condoms, lubricants, HIV testing services and antiretroviral therapy (ART). Perceived homophobia, criminalization of homosexual behaviour, and low country investment in HIV services were each associated with reduced access to condoms, lubricants, HIV testing services and ART. Improving access to HIV services for gay men and other men who have sex with men is urgently required as they carry a disproportionate burden of HIV in low and middle income countries. This study adds to a body of evidence which suggests that addressing structural barriers such as the criminalisation of homosexuality and sexual stigma (homophobia) will be necessary to reduce HIV vulnerability among gay men and other men who have sex with men, globally.

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Late antiretroviral therapy start persists for children under two years of age in low- and middle-income countries

Immunodeficiency in children starting antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Koller M, Patel K, Chi BH, Wools-Kaloustian K, Dicko F, Chokephaibulkit K, Chimbetete C, Avila D, Hazra R, Ayaya S, Leroy V, Truong HK, Egger M, Davies MA, IeDEA, NISDI, PHACS and IMPAACT 219C studies.  J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2015 Jan 1;68(1):62-72. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000000380.

Background: The CD4 cell count or percent (CD4%) at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is an important prognostic factor in children starting therapy and an important indicator of program performance. We describe trends and determinants of CD4 measures at cART initiation in children from low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Methods: We included children aged <16 years from clinics participating in a collaborative study spanning sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the United States. Missing CD4 values at cART start were estimated through multiple imputation. Severe immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization criteria. Analyses used generalized additive mixed models adjusted for age, country, and calendar year.

Results: A total of 34 706 children from 9 low-income, 6 lower middle-income, 4 upper middle-income countries, and 1 high-income country (United States) were included; 20 624 children (59%) had severe immunodeficiency. In low-income countries, the estimated prevalence of children starting cART with severe immunodeficiency declined from 76% in 2004 to 63% in 2010. Corresponding figures for lower middle-income countries were from 77% to 66% and for upper middle-income countries from 75% to 58%. In the United States, the percentage decreased from 42% to 19% during the period 1996 to 2006. In low- and middle-income countries, infants and children aged 12-15 years had the highest prevalence of severe immunodeficiency at cART initiation.

Conclusions: Despite progress in most low- and middle-income countries, many children continue to start cART with severe immunodeficiency. Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV-infected children to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with immunodeficiency must remain a global public health priority.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: This article describes trends and determinants of CD4 cell measures at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in about 35 000 children in low, middle, and high-income countries. Temporal trends in CD4 measures at ART initiation are a useful indicator of the health system’s ability to identify and treat eligible children in a timely fashion. They are also a useful measure of responsiveness to guideline changes.

Previous WHO guidelines recommended early ART initiation, regardless of immunologic or clinical thresholds. But the authors found that in 2010, approximately two-thirds of children below two years of age, in low- and middle-income countries were still starting ART with severe immunodeficiency.

Delayed country-level implementation of WHO guidelines, poor access to early infant diagnosis, slow turn-around time of test results, and limited ART availability for infants and young children are all contributing factors to this delayed ART initiation. The authors point out that timely diagnosis of paediatric HIV does not necessarily result in timely ART. The main reasons for this diagnosis to treatment gap include HIV diagnostic tests and paediatric ART being located at separate sites without robust referral mechanisms between services. There are challenges with CD4 measurement to determine eligibility. These include access to tests, turn-around time and interpretation of results and health care worker discomfort with treating children.

Currently, only 22% of children living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa are receiving ART. To decrease the treatment gap among children, WHO 2013 guidelines recommend universal ART for all children living with HIV, aged below five years of age, irrespective of CD4 count or clinical stage. Removing the requirement for a CD4 measurement also removes the time lag while waiting for CD4 results. Thus the guidelines aim both to increase treatment accessibility and to accelerate treatment initiation for all children. 

HIV Treatment
Africa, Asia, Northern America
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Increasing transmitted resistance to antiretroviral therapy in low/middle-income countries - highest prevalence in MSM

Global burden of transmitted HIV drug resistance and HIV-exposure categories: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Pham QD, Wilson DP, Law MG, Kelleher AD, Zhang L. AIDS. 2014 Nov 28;28(18):2751-62. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000494.

Objectives: Our aim was to review the global disparities of transmitted HIV drug resistance (TDR) in antiretroviral-naive MSM, people who inject drugs (PWID) and heterosexual populations in both high-income and low/middle-income countries.

Design/methods: We undertook a systematic review of the peer-reviewed English literature on TDR (1999-2013). Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to pool TDR prevalence and compare the odds of TDR across at-risk groups.

Results: A total of 212 studies were included in this review. Areas with greatest TDR prevalence were North America (MSM: 13.7%, PWID: 9.1%, heterosexuals: 10.5%); followed by western Europe (MSM: 11.0%, PWID: 5.7%, heterosexuals: 6.9%) and South America (MSM: 8.3%, PWID: 13.5%, heterosexuals: 7.5%). Our data indicated disproportionately high TDR burdens in MSM in Oceania (Australia 15.5%), eastern Europe/central Asia (10.2%) and east Asia (7.8%). TDR epidemics have stabilized in high-income countries, with a higher prevalence (range 10.9-12.6%) in MSM than in PWID (5.2-8.3%) and heterosexuals (6.4-9.0%) over 1999-2013. In low/middle-income countries, TDR prevalence in all at-risk groups in 2009-2013 almost doubled than that in 2004-2008 (MSM: 7.8 vs. 4.2%, P = 0.011; heterosexuals: 4.1 vs. 2.6%, P < 0.001; PWID: 4.8 vs. 2.4%, P = 0.265, respectively). The risk of TDR infection was significantly greater in MSM than that in heterosexuals and PWID. We observed increasing trends of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors among MSM.

Conclusion: TDR prevalence is stabilizing in high-income countries, but increasing in low/middle-income countries. This is likely due to the low, but increasing, coverage of antiretroviral therapy in these settings. Transmission of TDR is most prevalent among MSM worldwide.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: HIV mutates very rapidly, and many early antiretroviral agents had a low genetic barrier to the development of resistance. Thus the emergence of virus resistant to antiretroviral agents, particularly to early drug classes, was inevitable. Surveillance for drug-resistant virus among people with no prior history of taking antiretroviral drugs (transmitted drug resistance) is essential to monitor the spread of drug resistance at population level.

This systematic review aimed to compare transmitted drug resistance in different geographical regions and between subpopulations of HIV-positive people by likely route of transmission. Transmitted resistance was most prevalent in high income settings. This is not surprising given wide use of suboptimal drug regimens before effective triple therapy was available. Reassuringly, the prevalence of transmitted resistance seems to have stabilised in high-income settings. The increase in transmitted resistance in low and middle income countries is of more concern. It is not surprising, given that first-line regimens comprising two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor are vulnerable to the development of resistance if the drug supply is interrupted or adherence is suboptimal. In addition, if viral load monitoring is not available, people remain on failing drug regimens for longer, and thus have more risk of transmitting resistant virus.

Within the subpopulations examined in this review, transmitted resistance was consistently higher in men who have sex with men, suggesting that resistance testing prior to treatment is particularly valuable for this population.

Limitations of the review include exclusion of studies that did not compare transmitted resistance between the specified subpopulations, and small sample size in many subgroups.

Continued surveillance for transmitted drug resistance is critical. This is most important in settings where individualised resistance testing is not available. This will ensure that people starting antiretroviral therapy receive treatment that will suppress their viral load effectively. Wider use of viral load monitoring, combined with access to effective second and third line regimens, will also help limit spread of drug resistance.

HIV Treatment
Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Benin, Botswana, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Chad, China, Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Estonia, Ethiopia, France, Gabon, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Latvia, Malawi, Malaysia, Moldova, Mozambique, Netherlands, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Uganda, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United Republic of Tanzania, United States of America, Viet Nam, Zambia, Zimbabwe
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Antiretroviral therapy alone not enough to reduce TB incidence where HIV- and TB- prevalence is high

Incidence of HIV-associated tuberculosis among individuals taking combination antiretroviral therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Kufa T, Mabuto T, Muchiri E, Charalambous S, Rosillon D, Churchyard G, Harris RC. PLoS One. 2014 Nov 13;9(11):e111209. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111209. eCollection 2014.

Background: Knowledge of tuberculosis incidence and associated factors is required for the development and evaluation of strategies to reduce the burden of HIV-associated tuberculosis.

Methods: Systematic literature review and meta-analysis of tuberculosis incidence rates among HIV-infected individuals taking combination antiretroviral therapy.

Results: From PubMed, EMBASE and Global Index Medicus databases, 42 papers describing 43 cohorts (32 from high/intermediate and 11 from low tuberculosis burden settings) were included in the qualitative review and 33 in the quantitative review. Cohorts from high/intermediate burden settings were smaller in size, had lower median CD4 cell counts at study entry and fewer person-years of follow up. Tuberculosis incidence rates were higher in studies from sub-Saharan Africa and from World Bank low/middle income countries. Tuberculosis incidence rates decreased with increasing CD4 count at study entry and duration on combination antiretroviral therapy. Summary estimates of tuberculosis incidence among individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy were higher for cohorts from high/intermediate burden settings compared to those from the low tuberculosis burden settings (4.17 per 100 person-years [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 3.39-5.14 per 100 person-years] vs. 0.4 per 100 person-years [95% CI 0.23-0.69 per 100 person-years]) with significant heterogeneity observed between the studies.

Conclusions: Tuberculosis incidence rates were high among individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in high/intermediate burden settings. Interventions to prevent tuberculosis in this population should address geographical, socioeconomic and individual factors such as low CD4 counts and prior history of tuberculosis.

Abstract Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: This systematic review and meta-analysis looks at tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates among adults living with HIV on antiretroviral treatment (ART). The review reinforces and quantifies what we already know about the disparities between low-burden and high-burden settings. TB incidence rates in high and intermediate burden settings are ten times higher than those in low burden settings.

The authors draw attention to the need for implementation of programmes that address the social determinants of TB. Low socio-economic conditions are associated with higher TB incidence rates in individuals on ART. Interestingly, the meta-analysis found that TB incidence rates were higher among individuals on ART who had a previous history of TB, than individuals who did not have a history of previous TB. The epidemiological association between previous TB treatment and active TB was one of the foundations for the emphasis on case retention and cure rates with the Directly Observed Treatment, Short-Course (DOTS) strategy. Yet prevalence surveys conducted in Zimbabwe, South Africa and Zambia in the pre-ART and early ART era did not find an association between a history of previous TB and prevalent active undiagnosed TB in individuals living with HIV. The finding from this meta-analysis suggests that individuals on ART are now surviving long enough to develop recurrent TB disease.

The overall message of the study is that ART alone is not sufficient to reduce TB incidence in high HIV prevalence settings. Additional strategies are required to prevent TB focussing on individuals with low CD4 counts, a history of previous TB disease and people who have recently initiated ART.

Avoid TB deaths
Africa, Asia, Europe, Northern America
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Why pregnant women and mothers living with HIV do not access, or do not stay in care

A systematic review of individual and contextual factors affecting ART initiation, adherence, and retention for HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women.

Hodgson I, Plummer ML, Konopka SN, Colvin CJ, Jonas E, Albertini J, Amzel A, Fogg KP. PLoS One. 2014 Nov 5;9(11):e111421. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111421. eCollection 2014.

Background: Despite progress reducing maternal mortality, HIV-related maternal deaths remain high, accounting, for example, for up to 24 percent of all pregnancy-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is effective in improving outcomes among HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women, yet rates of initiation, adherence, and retention remain low. This systematic literature review synthesized evidence about individual and contextual factors affecting ART use among HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women.

Methods: Searches were conducted for studies addressing the population (HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women), intervention (ART), and outcomes of interest (initiation, adherence, and retention). Quantitative and qualitative studies published in English since January 2008 were included. Individual and contextual enablers and barriers to ART use were extracted and organized thematically within a framework of individual, interpersonal, community, and structural categories.

Results: Thirty-four studies were included in the review. Individual-level factors included both those within and outside a woman's awareness and control (e.g., commitment to child's health or age). Individual-level barriers included poor understanding of HIV, ART, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and difficulty managing practical demands of ART. At an interpersonal level, disclosure to a spouse and spousal involvement in treatment were associated with improved initiation, adherence, and retention. Fear of negative consequences was a barrier to disclosure. At a community level, stigma was a major barrier. Key structural barriers and enablers were related to health system use and engagement, including access to services and health worker attitudes.

Conclusions: To be successful, programs seeking to expand access to and continued use of ART by integrating maternal health and HIV services must identify and address the relevant barriers and enablers in their own context that are described in this review. Further research on this population, including those who drop out of or never access health services, is needed to inform effective implementation.

Abstract Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: This systematic review is one of three by the same team, related to HIV and maternal mortality. The review findings illustrate that the individual and contextual factors which affect antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, adherence and retention for pregnant/postpartum women living with HIV are numerous. Fears over disclosure, and consequent stigma and discrimination feature in many of the studies reviewed. Practical barriers might be overcome, by making services more accessible. The lack of knowledge about HIV and treatment among some women may be addressed through information campaigns. However, the fear of negative consequences as a result of disclosure, even to health workers, presents significant barriers to care. This is something that is of particular note as Option B+ is rolled out. An important strength of this review is the combination of qualitative and quantitative studies. The meticulous description of the approach to the review is also welcome. The authors’ call for ‘consistent, standardised and appropriate measures of adherence and retention’ with a ‘longitudinal component’, is a valuable suggestion as the performance of countries in providing Option B+ begins to be compared.

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Diagnosis of syphilis as an entry point for PrEP initiation among men who have sex with men

Syphilis predicts HIV incidence among men and transgender women who have sex with men in a preexposure prophylaxis trial.

Solomon MM, Mayer KH, Glidden DV, Liu AY, McMahan VM, Guanira JV, Chariyalertsak S, Fernandez T, Grant RM, iPrEx Study Team. Clin Infect Dis. 2014 Oct;59(7):1020-6. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu450. Epub 2014 Jun 13.

Background: Syphilis infection may potentiate transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We sought to determine the extent to which HIV acquisition was associated with syphilis infection within an HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) trial and whether emtricitabine/tenofovir (FTC/TDF) modified that association.

Methods: The Preexposure Prophylaxis Initiative (iPrEx) study randomly assigned 2499 HIV-seronegative men and transgender women who have sex with men (MSM) to receive oral daily FTC/TDF or placebo. Syphilis prevalence at screening and incidence during follow-up were measured. Hazard ratios for the effect of incident syphilis on HIV acquisition were calculated. The effect of FTC/TDF on incident syphilis and HIV acquisition was assessed.

Results: Of 2499 individuals, 360 (14.4%) had a positive rapid plasma reagin test at screening; 333 (92.5%) had a positive confirmatory test, which did not differ between the arms (FTC/TDF vs placebo, P = .81). The overall syphilis incidence during the trial was 7.3 cases per 100 person-years. There was no difference in syphilis incidence between the study arms (7.8 cases per 100 person-years for FTC/TDF vs 6.8 cases per 100 person-years for placebo, P = .304). HIV incidence varied by incident syphilis (2.8 cases per 100 person-years for no syphilis vs 8.0 cases per 100 person-years for incident syphilis), reflecting a hazard ratio of 2.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.6-4.4; P < .001). There was no evidence for interaction between randomization to the FTC/TDF arm and incident syphilis on HIV incidence.

Conclusions: In HIV-seronegative MSM, syphilis infection was associated with HIV acquisition in this PrEP trial; a syphilis diagnosis should prompt providers to offer PrEP unless otherwise contraindicated.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: The Preexposure Prophylaxis Initiative (iPrEx) trial and other recent trials have illustrated clearly that preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with emtricitabine/tenofovir (FTC/TDF) dramatically reduces the risk of HIV when used correctly and consistently. There is current discussion about the practical implications of these findings. This paper confirms a strong association between incident syphilis and HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men (MSM), and illustrates that syphilis did not attenuate the protective benefit of FTC/TDF against HIV. Syphilis continues to be prevalent among MSM in many settings, and the screening prevalence of 13% in this study is consistent with global estimates. These results highlight that individuals with syphilis are a key group for HIV acquisition. The results suggest that a new diagnosis of syphilis is an important opportunity for PrEP initiation, unless contraindications are present. This would be in addition to immediate syphilis treatment, and treatment for sexual partners. 

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Does pregnancy accelerate HIV progression?

Pregnancy and HIV disease progression: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Calvert C, Ronsmans C. Trop Med Int Health. 2014 Oct 31. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12412. [Epub ahead of print]

Objective: To assess whether pregnancy accelerates HIV disease progression.

Methods: Studies comparing progression to HIV-related illness, low CD4 count, AIDS-defining illness, HIV-related death, or any death in HIV-infected pregnant and non-pregnant women were included. Relative risks (RR) for each outcome were combined using random effects meta-analysis and were stratified by antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability.

Results: 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. Pregnancy was not associated with progression to HIV-related illness [summary RR: 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66-2.61], AIDS-defining illness (summary RR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.74-1.25) or mortality (summary RR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.62-1.53), but there was an association with low CD4 counts (summary RR: 1.41, 95%CI: 0.99-2.02) and HIV-related death (summary RR: 1.65, 95%CI: 1.06-2.57). In settings where ART was available, there was no evidence that pregnancy accelerated progress to HIV/AIDS-defining illnesses, death and drop in CD4 count. In settings without ART availability, effect estimates were consistent with pregnancy increasing the risk of progression to HIV/AIDS-defining illnesses and HIV-related or all-cause mortality, but there were too few studies to draw meaningful conclusions.

Conclusions: In the absence of ART, pregnancy is associated with small but appreciable increases in the risk of several negative HIV outcomes, but the evidence is too weak to draw firm conclusions. When ART is available, the effects of pregnancy on HIV disease progression are attenuated and there is little reason to discourage healthy HIV-infected women who desire to become pregnant from doing so.

Abstract access 

Editor’s notes: The suppression of cell-mediated immunity during pregnancy is associated with increased susceptibility to and/or severity of many infections. Therefore the question of whether pregnancy accelerates HIV disease progression in HIV-positive women is pertinent. A previous systematic review published in the late 1990s found weak evidence that the odds of acquiring an AIDS-defining illness or death were higher among HIV-positive pregnant women than HIV-positive non-pregnant women. The findings from this meta-analysis also suggest that in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART), pregnancy is associated with an increase in the risk of several negative HIV outcomes. Fortunately ART appears to diminish the effects of pregnancy on HIV progression.  The authors also draw attention to the methodological weaknesses of the studies included and highlight the need for better quality data, examining whether pregnancy aggravates HIV progression.

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Counting and classifying global deaths

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, et al. Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8. Epub 2014 Jul 22.

Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.

Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1.8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1.7 million to 2.1 million), 29.2 million prevalent HIV cases (28.1 to 31.7), and 1.3 million HIV deaths (1.3 to 1.5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1.7 million deaths (1.6 million to 1.9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19.1 million life-years (16.6 million to 21.5 million) have been saved, 70.3% (65.4 to 76.1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$ 4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.5 million (7.4 million to 7.7 million), prevalence was 11.9 million (11.6 million to 12.2 million), and number of deaths was 1.4 million (1.3 million to 1.5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7.1 million (6.9 million to 7.3 million), prevalence was 11.2 million (10.8 million to 11.6 million), and number of deaths was 1.3 million (1.2 million to 1.4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64.0% of cases (63.6 to 64.3) and 64.7% of deaths (60.8 to 70.3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1.2 million deaths (1.1 million to 1.4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31.5% (15.7 to 44.1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18.7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study uses standard methods to compare and track over time national distributions of deaths by cause, and the prevalence of disease and disability.  This detailed report focuses on HIV, TB and Malaria. It presents regional summaries of incidence, prevalence and mortality rates, and national estimates of the number of male and female deaths and new infections. Point estimates are shown for 2013, and annualised rates of change for 1990-2000 and 2000-2013. These highlight the contrasting trends in disease impact before and after the formulation of the Millennium Development Goal to combat these diseases.  The global peak of HIV mortality occurred in 2005, but regional annualised rates of change for 2000-2013 indicate that HIV deaths are still increasing significantly in east Asia, southern Africa, and most rapidly in eastern Europe.

The GBD 2013 global estimates of new infections and deaths agree closely with the corresponding estimates made by UNAIDS. But there are significant differences in the respective estimates of the number of people currently living with HIV (UNAIDS estimates are some 18% higher), and historical trends in AIDS deaths, with UNAIDS judging that the recent fall has been steeper. These differences are attributed primarily to methods used in the GBD study to ensure that the sum of deaths from specific causes fits the estimated all cause total, and to varying assumptions about historical survival patterns following HIV infection. 

It may be worthwhile to look at a comment by Michel Sidibé, Mark Dybul, and Deborah Birx in the Lancet on MDG 6 and beyond: from halting and reversing AIDS to ending the epidemic which refers to this study.

Epidemiology
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More data needed from routine programme data on antiretroviral therapy cascade outcomes among female sex workers

Antiretroviral therapy uptake, attrition, adherence and outcomes among HIV-infected female sex workers: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Mountain E, Mishra S, Vickerman P, Pickles M, Gilks C, Boily MC. PLoS One. 2014 Sep 29;9(9):e105645. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0105645. eCollection 2014.

Purpose: We aimed to characterize the antiretroviral therapy (ART) cascade among female sex workers (FSWs) globally.

Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase and MEDLINE in March 2014 to identify studies reporting on ART uptake, attrition, adherence, and outcomes (viral suppression or CD4 count improvements) among HIV-infected FSWs globally. When possible, available estimates were pooled using random effects meta-analyses (with heterogeneity assessed using Cochran's Q test and I2 statistic).

Results: 39 studies, reporting on 21 different FSW study populations in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Central America and the Caribbean, were included. Current ART use among HIV-infected FSWs was 38% (95% CI: 29%-48%, I2 = 96%, 15 studies), and estimates were similar between high-, and low- and middle-income countries. Ever ART use among HIV-infected FSWs was greater in high-income countries (80%; 95% CI: 48%-94%, I2 = 70%, 2 studies) compared to low- and middle-income countries (36%; 95% CI: 7%-81%, I2 = 99%, 3 studies). Loss to follow-up after ART initiation was 6% (95% CI: 3%-11%, I2 = 0%, 3 studies) and death after ART initiation was 6% (95% CI: 3%-11%, I2 = 0%, 3 studies). The fraction adherent to ≥95% of prescribed pills was 76% (95% CI: 68%-83%, I2 = 36%, 4 studies), and 57% (95% CI: 46%-68%, I2 = 82%, 4 studies) of FSWs on ART were virally suppressed. Median gains in CD4 count after 6 to 36 months on ART, ranged between 103 and 241 cells/mm3 (4 studies).

Conclusions: Despite global increases in ART coverage, there is a concerning lack of published data on HIV treatment for FSWs. Available data suggest that FSWs can achieve levels of ART uptake, retention, adherence, and treatment response comparable to that seen among women in the general population, but these data are from only a few research settings. More routine programme data on HIV treatment among FSWs across settings should be collected and disseminated.

Abstract  Full-text [free] access

Editor’s notes: Female sex workers remain a key population for HIV prevention, treatment and care. This is the first paper to systematically review and quantify the HIV treatment cascade among sex workers globally. The review highlights the scarcity of published data on HIV treatment among sex workers. For example, data were identified from only five countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Benin, Burkina Faso, Kenya, Rwanda and Zimbabwe) and a lack of data from routine (non research) settings. Further, most studies presented data on current antiretroviral therapy (ART) or CD4 count at initiation rather than follow-up data on attrition, adherence or viral suppression. The results suggest that research cohorts have been largely successful at enrolling and retaining female sex workers on ART, but there may be an issue with adherence. Adherence, in the few studies where it was measured (usually by self-report or pill counts) was high, and similar to estimates from the general population. But just over half of the participants initiating ART achieved viral suppression in the four studies which looked at this. This indicates scope for improvements in adherence (and adherence measurement) in these populations. This is possibly due to individual-level and structural-level barriers that sex workers face when receiving HIV treatment and care

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