Articles tagged as "Economic modelling"

Health economics of PrEP in Europe

Editor’s notes: One of the most common questions for policy makers considering the introduction of PrEP is how much it will cost and whether the benefits will outweigh the costs.  The answers to these questions will be dependent on the specific context but will be strongly influenced by four factors: the cost of PrEP (including its delivery); the savings due to reduced costs of HIV care; the effectiveness of PrEP; and the incidence of HIV in the population who receive PrEP.  The effectiveness and the incidence can be combined to calculate the number needed to treat to prevent an HIV infection.  As mentioned above, both PROUD and Ipergay demonstrated excellent effectiveness in populations that were highly at risk, as shown by the very high incidence in the placebo or deferred arms of these studies.  Durand-Zaleski and colleagues present their analysis of the costs and benefits of PrEP as used in the Ipergay study.  Most participants were in France, where lifetime costs of HIV treatment are estimated to be more than 500 000 euros.  At the time of Ipergay, the medicines for PrEP cost more than 500 euros monthly, but subsequently generic medicines have become available in France for around 180 euros monthly, and the price in France is approximately US$60 per month from Indian suppliers over the internet. When other health related costs are included, the costs to prevent an HIV infection vary from 27 000 to 75 000 euros depending on the costs of the medicines.  The confidence intervals around these estimates are wide because the trial was stopped before there were too many infections given the clear evidence of efficacy.  This model does not discount future costs, as it uses a short time horizon.  The model also does not consider ongoing transmission, which the authors estimate to be around two to three additional people given data from Ipergay’s sexual mixing data.  So, the conclusions that the benefits of PrEP outweigh the costs are based on conservative assumptions for this population.  However, it is important to recognize that the study population had an HIV incidence of 6.6 per 100 person-years and the incidence was more than nine per 100 person-years in the participants recruited into the placebo arm in the two Paris sites.  This led to an estimated number needed to treat of around 18 overall and around 13 for the Parisian sites.  WHO recommends that PrEP is offered to all people at significant risk of HIV infection, in whom the incidence might be more than three per 100 person-years.  An incidence of 3% would more than double the costs per infection averted calculated in this study, and an incidence of 0.66% (which would still represent an important and ongoing HIV epidemic, such as that seen on average in recent PHIA studies in Zambia and twice that seen in Malawi) would increase the costs per infection averted by tenfold.  From a health economic perspective, PrEP should always be prioritized to people who are most at risk.  From a human rights perspective, PrEP should be offered to anyone who wants it and in whom the epidemiological and psychological benefits outweigh the very small clinical risks of taking tenofovir and emtricitabine.

Cambiano and colleagues have modelled the potential impact and costs of PrEP in the UK population of gay men and men who have sex with men.  They assumed that PrEP would be offered to HIV-negative men who reported condomless anal sex in the past three months. Over the next 80 years, HIV infections would be prevented both directly and because of ongoing transmission to other men, leading to considerable cost-savings in terms of health care costs.  Overall, the authors predict that such a PrEP programme might save one billion pounds and avert approximately 25% of the HIV infections that would have been seen in the absence of the programme.  The results included a wide range of probabilistic uncertainty sampling.  The largest changes to their estimates would come from reductions in the costs of ARVs (for both treatment and for PrEP).  If PrEP was considerably cheaper, the time to break even in costs terms would be shorter.  On the one hand, we need models with a long-time horizon to capture all the benefits of preventing HIV infection today.  On the other hand, changes in technologies that may arise in the future cannot be incorporated into such models despite our hope that HIV prevention and treatment is likely to be very different over the next decades.

Costs and benefits of on-demand HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in MSM.

Durand-Zaleski I, Mutuon P, Charreau I, Tremblay C, Rojas D, Pialoux G, Chidiac C, Capitant C, Spire B, Cotte L, Chas J, Meyer L; Molina JM for the ANRS IPERGAY study group. AIDS. 32(1):95–102, 2018 Jan 2. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000001658. [Epub 2017 Oct 12]

Objectives: We undertook the economic evaluation of the double-blind randomized ANRS-IPERGAY trial, which showed the efficacy of on-demand preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)-emtricitabine (FTC) in preventing HIV infection among high-risk MSM.

Design and methods: The economic evaluation was prospective. Counseling, drugs (TDF-FTC at €500.88 for 30 tablets), tests, visits, and hospital admissions were valued based on in-trial use. The cost of on-demand PrEP/HIV infection averted was compared with the yearly and lifetime costs of HIV infection in France in a cost and benefits analysis.

Results: The yearly number of participants needed to treat to prevent one HIV infection was 17.6 (95% confidence interval = 10.7–49.9). The annual cost of counseling was €690/participant. The total 1-year costs of PrEP were €4271/participant, of which €3129 (73%) were drug costs corresponding to 15 tablets of TDF-FTC/month. The yearly cost of on-demand PrEP to avoid one infection was €75  258. Using TDF-FTC generic (€179.9/30 tablets) reduced the 1-year costs of on-demand PrEP to €2271/participant and €39  970/infection averted, respectively. Using TDF-FTC at international market discounted prices (€60/30 tablets) reduced the costs to €1517/participant and the cost to €26  787/infection averted, comparable with the yearly treatment cost of HIV infection in France. On-demand PrEP was found to be cost saving in France if the duration of exposure was less than 7.5 years at current drug price and 13 years at generic price.

Conclusion: On-demand PrEP in high-risk MSM with TDF-FTC can be considered cost saving. Other benefits include the treatments of other diseases and reductions in secondary infections.

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Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in the UK: a modelling study and health economic evaluation.

Cambiano V, Miners A, Dunn D, McCormack S, Ong KJ, Gill ON, Nardone A, Desai M, Field N, Hart G, Delpech V, Cairns G, Rodger A, Phillips AN. Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Oct 17. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30540-6. [Epub ahead of print]

Background: In the UK, HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) has remained high for several years, despite widespread use of antiretroviral therapy and high rates of virological suppression. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to be highly effective in preventing further infections in MSM, but its cost-effectiveness is uncertain.

Methods: In this modelling study and economic evaluation, we calibrated a dynamic, individual-based stochastic model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple data sources (surveillance data provided by Public Health England and data from a large, nationally representative survey, Natsal-3) on HIV among MSM in the UK. We did a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (sampling 22 key parameters) along with a range of univariate sensitivity analyses to evaluate the introduction of a PrEP programme with sexual event-based use of emtricitabine and tenofovir for MSM who had condomless anal sexual intercourse in the previous 3 months, a negative HIV test at baseline, and a negative HIV test in the preceding year. The main model outcomes were the number of HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs.

Findings: Introduction of such a PrEP programme, with around 4000 MSM initiated on PrEP by the end of the first year and almost 40 000 by the end of the 15th year, would result in a total cost saving (£1·0 billion discounted), avert 25% of HIV infections (42% of which would be directly because of PrEP), and lead to a gain of 40 000 discounted QALYs over an 80-year time horizon. This result was particularly sensitive to the time horizon chosen, the cost of antiretroviral drugs (for treatment and PrEP), and the underlying trend in condomless sex.

Interpretation: This analysis suggests that the introduction of a PrEP programme for MSM in the UK is cost-effective and possibly cost-saving in the long term. A reduction in the cost of antiretroviral drugs (including the drugs used for PrEP) would substantially shorten the time for cost savings to be realised.

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Europe
France, United Kingdom
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Technology is advancing rapidly, but are we making the most of it?

Editor’s notes: HIV self-testing was a key area of discussion in the Paris IAS meeting.  UNITAID signed the next phase of the STAR Initiative that is working with six countries in Southern Africa to transform the market for self-testing and understand the impact of different delivery systems.  The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation are using their resources to lower prices of self-test kits.  Following WHO’s decision to prequalify an oral fluid test, many countries are including self-test commodities within their PEPFAR Country Operation Plans and Global Fund concept notes. WHO have issued guidance on self-testing and assisted partner notification. So we can expect to see more and more self-tests out there in the field!

In Malawi, Choko et al. reported on qualitative research done prior to a cluster randomized trial that involves providing self-tests to women attending antenatal care (ANC) for them to take home to their partners.  Although couples are welcomed at ANC clinics and couple testing is certainly beneficial, many men still feel that the clinic is not a place for them.  As one participant said: “Considering what happens here at the ANC clinic, I don’t see my husband escorting me anymore because you find he is alone among many women and he has to listen to some things concerning birth. . . .”

In contrast, many women and men engaged in conversations about how providing self-test kits could help communication, stigma, privacy, control and time pressure among other aspects of involving men in HIV testing.  Some concerns were raised around violence and it is clear that this approach will suit some but not all couples, so it needs to be delivered in a way that respects autonomy with no coercion.

In a very different context, Jamil et al. have conducted a randomized trial among Australian gay men and men who have sex with men.  The trial enrolled “high risk” men who reported multiple partners and condomless sex over the past months.  A central premise of public health strategies to control the HIV epidemic is to find people who have acquired HIV as early as possible.  So the trial aimed to determine whether the offer of free oral fluid self-tests led to earlier testing and more frequent testing.  They found that compared with standard care, availability of free oral-fluid self-testing increased testing frequency both in men who had not tested recently and in men who had not tested at all in the past years. Importantly there was no decline in facility-based testing for HIV or sexually transmitted infections, which might have implied replacement.  The men commented that self-testing was highly acceptable and easy to do.

Self-tests are not a panacea.  Oral fluid tests do have a slightly lower sensitivity than blood based tests.  This may be important when HIV-antibody levels are not high, particularly in people taking ART (either as treatment or as PrEP), or early in the course of infection.  Furthermore, both oral fluid and blood based test rely on visual identification of bands on the test strip that may be faint, leading to some people assuming that they are negative or failing to see the positive band.  Curlin et al. examined the performance of oral fluid tests in people seroconverting to HIV during three specific trials.  They found a considerable number of false negative results and a long delay before some individuals became positive on oral fluid tests.  There was also a clear suggestion that some test operators were less good than others at performing the test and the possibility that one batch of the test kits were less sensitive.  Overall they concluded that “caution must be exercised when interpreting a negative oral fluid test in settings where acute infection is likely, and where PrEP use, ART induced viral suppression, or profound immunosuppression may result in low HIV-specific antibody titers.”  However, as an additional screening tool to be used in populations where many of whom are “missing” from the first 90 are to be found, self-tests have much to offer.  Many of these people will have acquired HIV some time ago and by definition will not be taking ART.  So the cautions raised by Curlin et al. may be less relevant for the primary intended purpose of self-tests.  Nonetheless, they make it very clear that oral fluid self-tests are not an appropriate technology to follow people on treatment or on PrEP.  Nor are they recommended for the diagnosis of acute infection.

While self-tests may increase the proportion of adults knowing their HIV status, different technology is needed for infants.  Nucleic acid amplification is used to detect pro-viral DNA or viral RNA in samples from infants.  The technology is more complex and often centralized, leading to delays and loss to follow up in mother-infant pairs.  Several systems now aim to provide testing close to the point of care and the evaluation of the SAMBA HIV-1 Qual Whole Blood Test from Ondiek et al. is an encouraging report.  Sensitivity and specificity were high (98.5% and 99.8% on 745 infant samples) and comparable to the standard approach used in centralized labs.  Samples from those with discrepant results were rechecked by assays based on multiple targets and suggested that the SAMBA test and the standard approach were each responsible for some of the few false positive and negatives seen.  The advantages of the SAMBA system is that it has been designed to be used in peripheral health systems.  All the reagents are freeze dried and stable without refrigeration. Turnaround time is approximately 2 hours with minimal sample handling once the sample is put into the machine.  Costs will still need to come down, but competition with other manufacturers may help.

The SAMBA technology that was evaluated is a qualitative assay aimed at diagnosis of infants.  A larger market is for viral load assays that are central to the monitoring of the effectiveness of HIV treatment and form the indicator for UNAIDS’s third 90.  However, at the moment viral load assays are still too expensive. As a result the optimal strategy for their use remains uncertain within programmes that have to make difficult decisions about where their limited resources should be spent.

Negoescu et al. have built an interesting model to explore the economic trade-offs between different frequencies of performing viral load assays.  More importantly they explore models of adapting the frequency of assays according to characteristics of the person taking ART.  People who have been on treatment for longer periods, or are older, or report fewer problems with adherence could be selected for less frequent assays.  This could save resources, without compromising health outcomes.  However, for countries like Uganda, which was used as the example to calibrate the model, the best approach seems to still be a viral load assay once per year, regardless of other factors.  And indeed, many resource limited countries are having to make difficult choices about how to allocate stretched budgets between expansion of access to viral load assays to the possible detriment of basic prevention programmes such as male circumcision and condoms.  As more resources become available (or as the cost of viral load assays fall) countries may well choose to do more frequent viral load assays.  The authors showed that monthly assays were more expensive but did (unsurprisingly) lead to benefits in terms of earlier detection of virological failure.  Given the renewed attention to drug resistance and the role of late detection of HIV treatment failure in propagating it, such models may become increasingly important.  Adapting the viral load assay frequency to the characteristics of the person taking HIV treatment could be a sensible approach in middle and higher income settings.

For some years, WHO has recommended that nucleic acid amplification should also be used as the first line test for tuberculosis among people living with HIV.  The GeneXpert® system has been taken up quite widely in many countries where HIV is common among people with tuberculosis, most notably in South Africa.  However, Hermans et al. remind us that technology is only one part of the solution.  Although there is no doubt that Xpert is considerably more sensitive than sputum microscopy and considerably quicker than mycobacterial culture, incorporating the technology into routine practice is not always straightforward.  At the Infectious Disease Institute in Kampala, Uganda, where there are well trained clinicians and better resources than in much of the rest of Uganda, Xpert was made available at no cost for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in a one stop combined HIV-TB clinic.  In a cohort of people living with HIV with symptoms suggestive of possible tuberculosis and whose sputum smear microscopy result was negative, many clinicians still preferred to treat on the basis of their clinical judgement and chest radiography.  Xpert™ was requested in less than half the patients.  Similar numbers of people were started on treatment for tuberculosis regardless of whether Xpert was requested (22% vs 21%).  And among those in whom an Xpert™ was performed, more were started on anti-tuberculosis treatment who had had a negative test than a positive one.  So it was not really clear that Xpert was useful in the diagnosis and management of HIV-related tuberculosis in this setting.  Xpert is not 100% sensitive, so many clinicians will choose to treat patients who might have tuberculosis regardless of the results of new technology.  Xpert also give a result that includes resistance to rifampicin, but this was not such a major issue in Kampala and was not an objective of this study.  Those treated without a confirmed test result were more likely to die during the next 12 months, but the authors point out that there are many possible reasons for this.  Many clinicians are aware of the high rates of undiagnosed tuberculosis found at autopsy in people with HIV. Thus, empirical treatment is often given to those who are critically unwell, even when there is no clear evidence of tuberculosis.

GeneXpert® was also the technology used in another study of tuberculosis contact tracing among school children in Swaziland (Ustero et al.).  Despite a rapid and extensive response to look for additional cases in schools where a confirmed case of tuberculosis had been found, no secondary cases were identified.  In household contacts of the same children, they found an additional two cases.  WHO recommends contacts tracing in households of infectious tuberculosis patients.  Although there is still a large and important gap in the estimated number of tuberculosis cases and the number who are notified and treated by national programmes, the best ways to find the missing cases are not well established.  Even in settings where both infections are among the most important causes of mortality, tuberculosis is much less prevalent than HIV.  So the challenge for case-finding and screening approaches for tuberculosis is to select the populations most at risk. An alternative would be to develop tools that are so sensitive, specific and cheap that they can be used for widespread screening. GeneXpert® is not that tool.

While tuberculosis remains the single most important cause of mortality among people living with HIV in low resource settings, there is welcome and increasing attention being paid to human papillomaviruses (HPV).  Certain types of HPV are the cause of cervical cancer.  This is an AIDS-defining illness both because it is more common among women living with HIV and because it has such a high mortality when only detected at the late stages.  At the Paris conference there was a morning session on how to do more about cervical cancer and in particular how to build on the synergies of both HPV and HIV programmes to provide more integrated services for women who are at risk of both infections.  The most important types of HPV that cause cervical cancer can be prevented by vaccination.  However, to be most effective the vaccine has to be given prior to becoming infected with the relevant HPV strain.  So the study by Sudenga et al. in South Africa is useful as it demonstrates how many younger women aged 16-24 years in the Western Cape Province had antibodies against four of the important types included in the quadrivalent vaccine that they were testing.  The majority of participants (64%) had antibodies to two or more types present at enrolment and 12% had antibodies to all four.  Furthermore, among those participants who received placebo injections, the seroconversion rates were alarming high at 23% for HPV16 and 5% for HPV6 over the 7 months of the study among baseline seronegative participants.  South Africa has been a leader in the region in HPV vaccination for schoolgirls.  It is clear that vaccination needs to happen at a young enough age to catch most girls before they become sexually active.  This is in contrast to the offer of pre-exposure prophylaxis, which should be focused on young women who are already sexually active and at higher risk of acquiring HIV.  The specificities of synergies and integration need to be clearly delineated if we are to maximize efficiency.

HPV is also the principal cause of anal carcinoma, which is a significant problem among gay men and men who have sex with men.  Jin et al. have been building on the progress in cervical cancer screening, where new technologies such as nucleic acid detection or oncoprotein detection are leading to big improvements in some settings and replacing cytology as the first line screen for women.  The authors determined whether similar biomarkers including both nucleic acids and cellular markers could be used instead of anal cytology.  As with most advances in diagnostic technology, there is a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity.  Tests that do not miss any cases of neoplastic change are also likely to lead to many people being unnecessarily referred for further assessment and treatment.  However, both new approaches seem to be able to be calibrated in this Australian population to allow fewer referrals while still maintaining a similar sensitivity to the current cytological approach.

Acceptability of woman-delivered HIV self-testing to the male partner, and additional interventions: a qualitative study of antenatal care participants in Malawi.

Choko AT, Kumwenda MK, Johnson CC, Sakala DW, Chikalipo MC, Fielding K, Chikovore J, Desmond N, Corbett EL. J Int AIDS Soc. 2017 Jun 26;20(1):1-10. doi: 10.7448/IAS.20.1.21610.

Introduction: In the era of ambitious HIV targets, novel HIV testing models are required for hard-to-reach groups such as men, who remain underserved by existing services. Pregnancy presents a unique opportunity for partners to test for HIV, as many pregnant women will attend antenatal care (ANC). We describe the views of pregnant women and their male partners on HIV self-test kits that are woman-delivered, alone or with an additional intervention.

Methods: A formative qualitative study to inform the design of a multi-arm multi-stage cluster-randomized trial, comprised of six focus group discussions and 20 in-depth interviews, was conducted. ANC attendees were purposively sampled on the day of initial clinic visit, while men were recruited after obtaining their contact information from their female partners. Data were analysed using content analysis, and our interpretation is hypothetical as participants were not offered self-test kits.

Results: Providing HIV self-test kits to pregnant women to deliver to their male partners was highly acceptable to both women and men. Men preferred this approach compared with standard facility-based testing, as self-testing fits into their lifestyles which were characterized by extreme day-to-day economic pressures, including the need to raise money for food for their household daily. Men and women emphasized the need for careful communication before and after collection of the self-test kits in order to minimize the potential for intimate partner violence although physical violence was perceived as less likely to occur. Most men stated a preference to first self-test alone, followed by testing as a couple. Regarding interventions for optimizing linkage following self-testing, both men and women felt that a fixed financial incentive of approximately USD$2 would increase linkage. However, there were concerns that financial incentives of greater value may lead to multiple pregnancies and lack of child spacing. In this low-income setting, a lottery incentive was considered overly disappointing for those who receive nothing. Phone call reminders were preferred to short messaging service.

Conclusions: Woman-delivered HIV self-testing through ANC was acceptable to pregnant women and their male partners. Feedback on additional linkage enablers will be used to alter pre-planned trial arms.

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Effect of availability of HIV self-testing on HIV testing frequency in gay and bisexual men at high risk of infection (FORTH): a waiting-list randomised controlled trial.

Jamil MS, Prestage G, Fairley CK, Grulich AE, Smith KS, Chen M, Holt M, McNulty AM, Bavinton BR, Conway DP, Wand H, Keen P,Bradley J, Kolstee J, Batrouney C, Russell D, Law M, Kaldor JM, Guy RJ. Lancet HIV. 2017 Jun;4(6):e241-e250. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(17)30023-1. Epub 2017 Feb 17.

Background: Frequent testing of individuals at high risk of HIV is central to current prevention strategies. We aimed to determine if HIV self-testing would increase frequency of testing in high-risk gay and bisexual men, with a particular focus on men who delayed testing or had never been tested before.

Methods: In this randomised trial, HIV-negative high-risk gay and bisexual men who reported condomless anal intercourse or more than five male sexual partners in the past 3 months were recruited at three clinical and two community-based sites in Australia. Enrolled participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to the intervention (free HIV self-testing plus facility-based testing) or standard care (facility-based testing only). Participants completed a brief online questionnaire every 3 months, which collected the number of self-tests used and the number and location of facility-based tests, and HIV testing was subsequently sourced from clinical records. The primary outcome of number of HIV tests over 12 months was assessed overall and in two strata: recent (last test ≤2 years ago) and non-recent (>2 years ago or never tested) testers. A statistician who was masked to group allocation analysed the data; analyses included all participants who completed at least one follow-up questionnaire. After the 12 month follow-up, men in the standard care group were offered free self-testing kits for a year. This trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand clinical trials registry, number actrn12613001236785.

Findings: Between Dec 1, 2013, and Feb 5, 2015, 182 men were randomly assigned to self-testing, and 180 to standard care. The analysis population included 178 (98%) men in the self-testing group (174 person-years) and 165 (92%) in the standard care group (162 person-years). Overall, men in the self-testing group had 701 HIV tests (410 self-tests; mean 4·0 tests per year), and men in the standard care group had 313 HIV tests (mean 1·9 tests per year); rate ratio (rr) 2·08 (95% ci 1·82-2·38; p<0·0001). Among recent testers, men in the self-testing group had 627 tests (356 self-tests; mean 4·2 per year), and men in the standard care group had 297 tests (mean 2·1 per year); rr 1·99 (1·73-2·29; p<0·0001). Among non-recent testers, men in the self-testing group had 74 tests (54 self-tests; mean 2·8 per year), and men in the standard care group had 16 tests (mean 0·7 per year); rr 3·95 (2·30-6·78; p<0·0001). The mean number of facility-based HIV tests per year was similar in the self-testing and standard care groups (mean 1·7 vs 1·9 per year, respectively; rr 0·86, 0·74-1·01; P=0·074). No serious adverse events were reported during follow-up.

Interpretation: HIV self-testing resulted in a two times increase in frequency of testing in gay and bisexual men at high risk of infection, and a nearly four times increase in non-recent testers, compared with standard care, without reducing the frequency of facility-based HIV testing. HIV self-testing should be made more widely available to help increase testing and earlier diagnosis.

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Analysis of false-negative human immunodeficiency virus rapid tests performed on oral fluid in 3 international clinical research studies.

Curlin ME, Gvetadze R, Leelawiwat W, Martin M, Rose C, Niska RW, Segolodi TM, Choopanya K, Tongtoyai J, Holtz TH, Samandari T, McNicholl JM; OraQuick Study Group. Clin Infect Dis. 2017 Jun 15;64(12):1663-1669. doi: 10.1093/cid/cix228.

Background: The OraQuick Advance Rapid HIV-1/2 Test is a point-of-care test capable of detecting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific antibodies in blood and oral fluid. To understand test performance and factors contributing to false-negative results in longitudinal studies, we examined results of participants enrolled in the Botswana TDF/FTC Oral HIV Prophylaxis Trial, the Bangkok Tenofovir Study, and the Bangkok MSM Cohort Study, 3 separate clinical studies of high-risk, HIV-negative persons conducted in Botswana and Thailand.

Methods: In a retrospective observational analysis, we compared oral fluid OraQuick (OFOQ) results among participants becoming HIV infected to results obtained retrospectively using enzyme immunoassay and nucleic acid amplification tests on stored specimens. We categorized negative OFOQ results as true-negative or false-negative relative to nucleic acid amplification test and/or enzyme immunoassay, and determined the delay in OFOQ conversion relative to the estimated time of infection. We used log-binomial regression and generalized estimating equations to examine the association between false-negative results and participant, clinical, and testing-site factors.

Results: Two-hundred thirty-three false-negative OFOQ results occurred in 80 of 287 seroconverting individuals.  Estimated OFOQ conversion delay ranged from 14.5 to 547.5 (median, 98.5) days. Delayed OFOQ conversion was associated with clinical site and test operator (P < .05), preexposure prophylaxis (P = .01), low plasma viral load (P < .02), and time to kit expiration (P < .01). Participant age, sex, and HIV subtype were not associated with false-negative results. Long OFOQ conversion delay time was associated with antiretroviral exposure and low plasma viral load.

Conclusions: Failure of OFOQ to detect HIV-1 infection was frequent and multifactorial in origin. In longitudinal trials, negative oral fluid results should be confirmed via testing of blood samples.

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Multi-country validation of SAMBA - A novel molecular point-of- care test for HIV-1 detection in resource-limited setting.

Ondiek J, Namukaya Z, Mtapuri-Zinyowera S, Balkan S, Elbireer A, Ushiro Lumb I, Kiyaga C, Goel N, Ritchie A, Ncube P, Omuomu K, Ndiege K, Kekitiinwa A,Mangwanya D, Fowler MG, Nadala L, Lee H. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2017 Jun 9. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000001476. [Epub ahead of print]

Introduction: Early diagnosis of HIV-1 infection and the prompt initiation of antiretroviral therapy are critical to achieving a reduction in the morbidity and mortality of infected infants. The SAMBA HIV-1 Qual Whole Blood Test was developed specifically for early infant diagnosis and prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs implemented at the point-of-care in resource-limited settings.

Methods: We have evaluated the performance of this test run on the SAMBA I semi-automated platform with fresh whole blood specimens collected from 202 adults and 745 infants in Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Results were compared with those obtained with the Roche COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan (CAP/CTM) HIV-1 assay as performed with fresh whole blood or dried blood spots of the same subjects, and discrepancies were resolved with alternative assays.

Results: The performance of the SAMBA and CAP/CTM assays evaluated at five laboratories in the three countries was similar for both adult and infant samples. The clinical sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the SAMBA test were 100%, 99.2%, 98.7%, and 100%, respectively, with adult samples, and 98.5%, 99.8%, 99.7%, and 98.8%, respectively, with infant samples.

Discussion: Our data suggest that the SAMBA HIV-1 Qual Whole Blood Test would be effective for early diagnosis of HIV-1 infection in infants at point-of care settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Differentiated human immunodeficiency virus RNA monitoring in resource-limited settings: an economic analysis.

Negoescu DM, Zhang Z, Bucher HC, Bendavid E; Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Clin Infect Dis. 2017 Jun 15;64(12):1724-1730. doi: 10.1093/cid/cix177.

Background: Viral load (VL) monitoring for patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended worldwide. However, the costs of frequent monitoring are a barrier to implementation in resource-limited settings. The extent to which personalized monitoring frequencies may be cost-effective is unknown.

Methods: We created a simulation model parameterized using person-level longitudinal data to assess the benefits of flexible monitoring frequencies. Our data-driven model tracked human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals for 10 years following ART initiation. We optimized the interval between viral load tests as a function of patients' age, gender, education, duration since ART initiation, adherence behavior, and the cost-effectiveness threshold. We compared the cost-effectiveness of the personalized monitoring strategies to fixed monitoring intervals every 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months.

Results: Shorter fixed VL monitoring intervals yielded increasing benefits (6.034 to 6.221 discounted quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] per patient with monitoring every 24 to 1 month over 10 years, respectively, standard error = 0.005 QALY), at increasing average costs: US$3445 (annual monitoring) to US$5393 (monthly monitoring) per patient, respectively (standard error = US$3.7). The adaptive policy optimized for low-income contexts achieved 6.142 average QALYs at a cost of US$3524, similar to the fixed 12-month policy (6.135 QALYs, US$3518). The adaptive policy optimized for middle-income resource settings yields 0.008 fewer QALYs per person, but saves US$204 compared to monitoring every 3 months.

Conclusions: The benefits from implementing adaptive vs fixed VL monitoring policies increase with the availability of resources. In low- and middle-income countries, adaptive policies achieve similar outcomes to simpler, fixed-interval policies.

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Treatment decisions and mortality in HIV-positive presumptive smear-negative TB in the Xpert™ MTB/RIF era: a cohort study.

Hermans SM, Babirye JA, Mbabazi O, Kakooza F, Colebunders R, Castelnuovo B, Sekaggya-Wiltshire C, Parkes-Ratanshi R, Manabe YC. BMC Infect Dis. 2017 Jun 16;17(1):433. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2534-2.

Background: The Xpert™ MTB/RIF (XP) has a higher sensitivity than sputum smear microscopy (70% versus 35%) for TB diagnosis and has been endorsed by the WHO for TB high burden countries to increase case finding among HIV co-infected presumptive TB patients. Its impact on the diagnosis of smear-negative TB in a routine care setting is unclear. We determined the change in diagnosis, treatment and mortality of smear-negative presumptive TB with routine use of Xpert MTB/RIF (XP).

Methods: Prospective cohort study of HIV-positive smear-negative presumptive TB patients during a 12-month period after XP implementation in a well-staffed and trained integrated TB/HIV clinic in Kampala, Uganda. Prior to testing clinicians were asked to decide whether they would treat empirically prior to Xpert result; actual treatment was decided upon receipt of the XP result. We compared empirical and XP-informed treatment decisions and all-cause mortality in the first year.

Results: Of 411 smear-negative presumptive TB patients, 175 (43%) received an XP; their baseline characteristics did not differ. XP positivity was similar in patients with a pre-XP empirical diagnosis and those without (9/29 [17%] versus 14/142 [10%], P = 0.23). Despite XP testing high levels of empirical treatment prevailed (18%), although XP results did change who ultimately was treated for TB. When adjusted for CD4 count, empirical treatment was not associated with higher mortality compared to no or microbiologically confirmed treatment.

Conclusions: XP usage was lower than expected. The lower sensitivity of XP in smear-negative HIV-positive patients led experienced clinicians to use XP as a "rule-in" rather than "rule-out" test, with the majority of patients still treated empirically.

Keywords: Empirical treatment; HIV Infections/complications; Molecular diagnostic techniques/methods; Tuberculosis, pulmonary/diagnosis; Tuberculosis, pulmonary/epidemiology

Abstract  Full-text [free] access 

 

School and household tuberculosis contact investigations in Swaziland: Active TB case finding in a high HIV/TB burden setting.

Ustero PA, Kay AW, Ngo K, Golin R, Tsabedze B, Mzileni B,Glickman J, Wisile Xaba M, Mavimbela G, Mandalakas AM. PLoS One. 2017 Jun 5;12(6):e0178873. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178873.eCollection 2017.

Background: Investigation of household contacts exposed to infectious tuberculosis (TB) is widely recommended by international guidelines to identify secondary cases of TB and limit spread. There is little data to guide the use of contact investigations outside of the household, despite strong evidence that most TB infections occur outside of the home in TB high burden settings. In older adolescents, the majority of infections are estimated to occur in school. Therefore, as part of a project to increase active case finding in Swaziland, we performed school contact investigations following the identification of a student with infectious TB.

Methods: The Butimba Project identified 7 adolescent TB index cases (age 10-20) with microbiologically confirmed disease attending 6 different schools between June 2014 and March 2015. In addition to household contact investigations, Butimba Project staff worked with the Swaziland School Health Programme (SHP) to perform school contact investigations. At 6 school TB screening events, between May and October 2015, selected students underwent voluntary TB screening and those with positive symptom screens provided sputum for TB testing.

Results: Among 2015 student contacts tested, 177 (9%) screened positive for TB symptoms, 132 (75%) produced a sputum sample, of which zero tested positive for TB. Household contact investigations of the same index cases yielded 40 contacts; 24 (60%) screened positive for symptoms; 19 produced a sputum sample, of which one case was confirmed positive for TB. The odds ratio of developing TB following household vs. school contact exposure was significantly lower (OR 0.0, 95% CI 0.0 to 0.18, P = 0.02) after exposure in school.

Conclusion: School-based contact investigations require further research to establish best practices in TB high burden settings. In this case, a symptom-based screening approach did not identify additional cases of tuberculosis. In comparison, household contact investigations yielded a higher percentage of contacts with positive TB screens and an additional tuberculosis case.

Abstract Full-text [free] access

 

HPV serostatus pre- and post-vaccination in a randomized phase II preparedness trial among young Western Cape, South African women: the EVRI trial.

Sudenga SL, Torres BN, Botha MH, Zeier M, Abrahamsen ME, Glashoff RH, Engelbrecht S, Schim Van der Loeff MF, Van der Laan LE, Kipping S, Taylor D, Giuliano AR. Papillomavirus Res. 2017 Jun;3:50-56. doi: 10.1016/j.pvr.2017.02.001. Epub 2017 Feb 16.

Background: HPV antibodies are a marker of past exposure to the virus. Our objective was to assess HPV serostatus pre- and post-vaccination among HIV-negative women.

Methods: Women aged 16-24 years old were randomized in a placebo controlled trial utilizing the 4-valent HPV (4vHPV) vaccine (NCT01489527, clinicaltrials.gov). Participants (n=389) received the 4vHPV vaccine or placebo following a three dose schedule. Sera were collected at Day 1 and Month 7 for assessment of HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 neutralizing antibody levels using a multiplex competitive Luminex immunoassay (Merck) based on detecting the L1 capsid antigen for each HPV type.

Results: Seroprevalence was 73% for HPV6, 47% for HPV11, 33% for HPV16, and 44% for HPV18. Seroprevalence for any HPV type did not significantly differ by age or lifetime number of partners. The majority of participants (64%) had two or more 4vHPV antibodies present at enrollment and 12% had antibodies to all four. Among women in the vaccine arm, those that were seropositive for HPV16 at enrollment had higher titers at month 7 compared to women that were seronegative for HPV16 at enrollment; this trend holds for the other HPV types as well. Seroconversion among baseline seronegative participants in the placebo group ranged from 5% for HPV16 to 23% for HPV6.

Conclusion: HPV seroprevalence was high in this population, emphasizing the need to vaccinate prior to sexual debut.

Abstract access

 

The performance of human papillomavirus biomarkers in predicting anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions in gay and bisexual men.

Jin F, Roberts JM, Grulich AE, Poynten IM, Machalek DA, Cornall A, Phillips S, Ekman D, McDonald RL, Hillman RJ, Templeton DJ, Farnsworth A, Garland SM, Fairley CK, Tabrizi SN; SPANC Research Team. AIDS. 2017 Jun 1;31(9):1303-1311. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001462.

Background: We evaluate the performance of human papillomavirus (HPV) biomarkers in prediction of anal histological high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions in gay and bisexual men (GBM) in Sydney, Australia.

Design: Baseline analysis of a 3-year cohort study.

Methods: The study of the prevention of anal cancer is natural history study of anal HPV infection in GBM aged at least 35 years. All participants completed cytological and histological assessments. Stored ThinPrep PreservCyt residua were tested for HPV genotyping (Linear Array and Cobas 4800) and viral load, E6/E7 mRNA expression (NucliSENS easyQ HPV v1) and dual cytology staining of p16/Ki 67 antibodies (CINtecPLUS). Performance of each biomarker was compared with liquid-based anal cytology. The hypothetical referral rates were defined as the proportion of men who had abnormal cytology or tested positive to each of the biomarkers.

Results: The median age of the 617 participants was 49 years (range: 35-79), and 35.7% were HIV-positive. All biomarkers were strongly associated with the grade of HPV-associated anal lesions (P < 0.001 for all). High-risk HPV (HR-HPV) viral load with a 33% cut-off and HR-HPV E6/E7 mRNA had similar sensitivity to anal cytology (78.4 and 75.4 vs. 83.2%, respectively), improved specificity (68.0 and 69.4 vs. 52.4%, respectively) and lower referral rates (47.0 and 45.0 vs. 59.2%, respectively). Specificity was significantly higher in the HIV-negative for HR-HPV viral load (72.3 vs. 58.2%, P = 0.005).

Conclusion: HR-HPV viral load and E6/E7 mRNA had similar sensitivity and higher specificity in predicting histological anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion with lower referrals in GBM than anal cytology.

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Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania
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Key populations need so much more than HIV-specific services – involve them at every stage of planning and programming

Editor’s notes: This month sees a welcome set of papers covering female sex workers in West Africa; gay men and other men who have sex with men in the Middle East and in East Africa; people who inject drugs in the USA and eastern Europe.

Sex work is legal in Cote d’Ivoire although soliciting and pandering are criminalized, which creates legal barriers to practicing sex work.  Legalization does not necessarily prevent widespread abuse of power. Lyons and colleagues recruited 466 female sex workers in Abidjan through a respondent driven sampling approach.  A structured interview and rapid HIV test was performed.  Around 11% of the women were found to be living with HIV and it is clear that there are large unmet needs for HIV-specific services.  Only one quarter of those living with HIV reported that they knew their status and of these, only a few were already taking ART.  However, the focus of this study was on violence, both physical and sexual, which was alarmingly common, with around 54% of women reporting physical violence and 43% sexual violence.  The violence was most often perpetrated by spouses and boyfriends as well as by paying customers.  Other sex workers, pimps or managers and uniformed officers were also responsible for violence, both physical and sexual.  16% of women said that they had been tortured.  Collecting reliable data on sensitive areas with vulnerable populations is challenging.  The sampling method may introduce biases, and the interviews may lead to reported behaviours to “please” the interviewer.  However, this study included major efforts to work with the community of sex workers and their networks, and considerable trust has been built, so the results seem credible.  The authors call for structural interventions and policy reforms that have little to do with HIV directly, but would lead to an environment where HIV and other harms were greatly reduced.  There is also a direct need to ensure that sex workers have good access to HIV and other sexual and reproductive health services.

People who inject drugs also have many needs besides HIV services.  In the USA, the number of people who inject drugs is increasing.  This has led to a rising number of deaths from opioid overdose (around 30 000 in 2014), as well as increased HIV transmission, which makes the headlines of the news, when it occurs in settings where HIV is otherwise rare.  Cost-effective HIV prevention programmes for people who inject drugs are essential to the long-term health outcomes for this population and other high-risk groups in the USA.  Bernard and colleagues used a mathematical model and economic analysis to identify the most cost-effective interventions for HIV prevention programmes for people who inject drugs in the USA.

The authors found that under many likely assumptions about potential scale up, the best buy was always to provide opioid agonist therapy, which reduces injecting frequency and results in multiple, immediate quality-of-life improvements.  Needle and syringe exchange programmes are less expensive, but in these models produced fewer benefits, making them the next most cost-effective intervention, alone or in combination. PrEP was not likely to be cost-effective in this population except in the very highest risk settings.  This is in line with the values and preference expressed by many people who use drugs around the world.  The priority should be for “standard” harm reduction approaches, which will reduce HIV transmission, but have far wider benefits on the health and well-being of drug users and their communities.

Relatively little research is carried out with key populations in the Middle East.  Heimer and colleagues also used respondent driven sampling (with the same potential biases as above) to recruit 292 men who have sex with men in Beirut.  Although one quarter of the participants had been born in Syria and moved recently to Lebanon, the sampling method does reduce the precision of this estimate.  Of 36 people living with HIV identified, 32 were on HIV treatment, which is encouraging.  If the 32 on treatment were virally suppressed, the prevalence of “infectious HIV” in the survey was around 1.4%.  As we move forward into the viral load era, notions of risk for sexual behaviour will change, and we need to think about explicit descriptions such as “condomless sex” rather than simply referring to “unprotected sex”.  As stated above, the benefits of condoms for other sexually transmitted infections as well as for HIV need to be emphasized and the full range of ARV-based prevention made available in order to minimize the epidemic of HIV among gay men and other men who have sex with men in Lebanon and beyond.

The dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Ukraine are shifting.  Increasingly sexual transmission is becoming more common, and transmission through injecting drug use reducing.  Fearnhill and colleagues’ study of phylogenetics and recent infections among 876 newly diagnosed people living with HIV in Kiev highlights these trends.  The study also demonstrates plenty of uncertainty and suggests that the stigma associated with both injecting drug use and with gay men and other men having sex with men may lead to significant under-reporting of both in traditional epidemiological surveillance.  Although phylogenetics cannot prove misclassification, it is highly suggestive when large clusters of HIV from known gay men and other men who have sex with men include no women, but do include other men, who self-report to be heterosexual.  Transmission was most common among gay men and other men who have sex with men, and from those with recent infections.  HIV strains from women often cluster with those from people who inject drugs.  In a complex and dynamic environment with overlapping risk factors for HIV infection, phylogenetics adds a useful lens through which to examine what is happening.  Yet again, the challenge is to translate more granular understanding of the epidemics into clear public health policy and practice.

What do men who have sex with men in Kenya think about participating in HIV prevention research, such as a vaccine trial?  Doshi and colleagues used a social network-based approach to conduct in-depth interviews with 70 gay men and other men who have sex with men.  Here is what some of them said:

“He [the potential study participant] keeps hearing there is a research [study] that is starting, that there is money – one thousand or two, three thousand – he will run for the money…because it is someone’s life you have to be sure of what is going on…. You run for the better option because research comes in every type and researchers are everywhere in town.”

“Ok, you know most of the research coming to Kenya starts with MSM. Those are the ones that are tested on first so if there are side effects, those will be the first victims”

“It will benefit many of us…on my side…because sometimes I’m drunk I go out and meet people and they tell me they do not use condom…or… I’m drunk, I don’t know myself and I have already come to the bed with someone. Even I don’t know what he will do to me, if he will do me with a condom or if he will do me without a condom. Now the [HIV] vaccine…will be beneficial to me and the whole community”

This is a rich paper, giving insights into the reasons that people do or do not want to participate in vaccine trials.  It raises plenty of ethical questions about the balance between self-interest, altruism, coercion and consent.  It is encouraging that on the whole most participants saw the potential benefits to the wider community and would consider volunteering their time despite the associated risks.  Their perceptions were also coloured by previous research studies and how researchers had met their responsibilities for the care and well-being of their participants.  A good advertisement for the UNAIDS-AVAC Good Participatory Practice guidance!

Physical and sexual violence affecting female sex workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: prevalence, and the relationship with the work environment, HIV, and access to health services

Lyons CE, Grosso A, Drame FM, Ketende S, Diouf D, Ba I, Shannon K, Ezouatchi R, Bamba A, Kouame A, Baral S. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2017 May 1;75(1):9-17. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000001310.

Background: Violence is a human rights violation, and an important measure in understanding HIV among female sex workers (FSW). However, limited data exist regarding correlates of violence among FSW in Côte d'Ivoire. Characterizing prevalence and determinants of violence and the relationship with structural risks for HIV can inform development and implementation of comprehensive HIV prevention and treatment programs.

Methods: FSW > 18 years were recruited through respondent driven sampling (RDS) in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. In total, 466 participants completed a socio-behavioral questionnaire and HIV testing. Prevalence estimates of violence were calculated using crude and RDS-adjusted estimates. Relationships between structural risk factors and violence were analyzed using χ2 tests and multivariable logistic regression.

Results: The prevalence of physical violence was 53.6% (250/466), and sexual violence was 43.2% (201/465) among FSW in this study. Police refusal of protection was associated with physical (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR]: 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7 to 4.4) and sexual violence (aOR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.9 to 4.8). Blackmail was associated with physical (aOR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5 to 4.2) and sexual violence (aOR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.5 to 4.0). Physical violence was associated with fear (aOR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.3 to 3.1) and avoidance of seeking health services (aOR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.5 to 3.8).

Conclusions: Violence is prevalent among FSW in Abidjan and associated with features of the work environment and access to care. These relationships highlight layers of rights violations affecting FSW, underscoring the need for structural interventions and policy reforms to improve work environments, and to address police harassment, stigma, and rights violations to reduce violence and improve access to HIV interventions.

Abstract

Estimation of the cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention portfolios for people who inject drugs in the United States: a model-based analysis

Bernard CL, Owens DK, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Brandeau ML. PLoS Med. 2017 May 24;14(5):e1002312 doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002312. eCollection 2017 May.

Background: The risks of HIV transmission associated with the opioid epidemic make cost-effective programs for people who inject drugs (PWID) a public health priority. Some of these programs have benefits beyond prevention of HIV-a critical consideration given that injection drug use is increasing across most United States demographic groups. To identify high-value HIV prevention program portfolios for US PWID, we consider combinations of four interventions with demonstrated efficacy: opioid agonist therapy (OAT), needle and syringe programs (NSPs), HIV testing and treatment (Test & Treat), and oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

Methods and Findings: We adapted an empirically calibrated dynamic compartmental model and used it to assess the discounted costs (in 2015 US dollars), health outcomes (HIV infections averted, change in HIV prevalence, and discounted quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the four prevention programs, considered singly and in combination over a 20-y time horizon. We obtained epidemiologic, economic, and health utility parameter estimates from the literature, previously published models, and expert opinion. We estimate that expansions of OAT, NSPs, and Test & Treat implemented singly up to 50% coverage levels can be cost-effective relative to the next highest coverage level (low, medium, and high at 40%, 45%, and 50%, respectively) and that OAT, which we assume to have immediate and direct health benefits for the individual, has the potential to be the highest value investment, even under scenarios where it prevents fewer infections than other programs. Although a model-based analysis can provide only estimates of health outcomes, we project that, over 20 y, 50% coverage with OAT could avert up to 22 000 (95% CI: 5200, 46 000) infections and cost US$18 000 (95% CI: US$14 000, US$24 000) per QALY gained, 50% NSP coverage could avert up to 35 000 (95% CI: 8900, 43 000) infections and cost US$25 000 (95% CI: US$7000, US$76 000) per QALY gained, 50% Test & Treat coverage could avert up to 6700 (95% CI: 1200, 16 000) infections and cost US$27 000 (95% CI: US$15 000, US$48 000) per QALY gained, and 50% PrEP coverage could avert up to 37 000 (22 000, 58 000) infections and cost US$300 000 (95% CI: US$162 000, US$667 000) per QALY gained. When coverage expansions are allowed to include combined investment with other programs and are compared to the next best intervention, the model projects that scaling OAT coverage up to 50%, then scaling NSP coverage to 50%, then scaling Test & Treat coverage to 50% can be cost-effective, with each coverage expansion having the potential to cost less than US$50 000 per QALY gained relative to the next best portfolio. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, 59% of portfolios prioritized the addition of OAT and 41% prioritized the addition of NSPs, while PrEP was not likely to be a priority nor a cost-effective addition. Our findings are intended to be illustrative, as data on achievable coverage are limited and, in practice, the expansion scenarios considered may exceed feasible levels. We assumed independence of interventions and constant returns to scale. Extensive sensitivity analyses allowed us to assess parameter sensitivity, but the use of a dynamic compartmental model limited the exploration of structural sensitivities.

Conclusions: We estimate that OAT, NSPs, and Test & Treat, implemented singly or in combination, have the potential to effectively and cost-effectively prevent HIV in US PWID. PrEP is not likely to be cost-effective in this population, based on the scenarios we evaluated. While local budgets or policy may constrain feasible coverage levels for the various interventions, our findings suggest that investments in combined prevention programs can substantially reduce HIV transmission and improve health outcomes among PWID.

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HIV risk, prevalence, and access to care among men who have sex with men in Lebanon

Heimer R, Barbour R, Khoury D, Crawford FW, Shebl FM, Aaraj E, Khoshnood K. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2017 Jun 29 doi: 10.1089/AID.2016.0326. [Epub ahead of print].

Objective: Little is known about HIV prevalence and risk among men who have sex with men in much of the Middle East, including Lebanon. Recent national level surveillance has suggested an increase in HIV prevalence concentrated among men in Lebanon. We undertook a biobehavioral study to provide direct evidence for the spread of HIV.

Design: MSM were recruited by respondent driven sampling, interviewed, and offered HIV testing anonymously at sites located in Beirut, Lebanon from October 2014 through February 2015. The interview questionnaire was designed to obtain information on participants' sociodemographic situation, sexual behaviors, alcohol and drug use, health, HIV testing and care, experiences of stigma and discrimination. Individuals not reporting an HIV diagnosis were offered optional, anonymous HIV testing.

Results: Among the 292 MSM recruited, we identified 36 cases of HIV (12.3%). A quarter of the MSM were born in Syria and recently arrived in Lebanon. Condom use was uncommon; 65% reported unprotected sex with other men. Group sex encounters were reported by 22% of participants. Among the 32 individuals already aware of their infection, 30 were in treatment and receiving antiretroviral therapy.

Conclusions: HIV prevalence was substantially increased over past estimates. Efforts to control future increases will have to focus on reducing specific risk behaviors and experienced stigma and abuse, especially among Syrian refugees.

Abstract

A phylogenetic analysis of HIV-1 sequences in Kiev: findings among key populations

Fearnhill E, Gourlay A, Malyuta R, Simmons R, Ferns RB, Grant P, Nastouli E, Karnets I, Murphy G, Medoeva A, Kruglov Y, Yurchenko A, Porter K; CASCADE Collaboration in EuroCoord. Clin Infec Dis 2017 May 29: doi: 10.1093/cid/cix499. [Epub ahead of print].

Background: The HIV epidemic in Ukraine has been driven by a rapid rise among people who inject drugs, but recent studies have shown an increase through sexual transmission.

Methods: Protease and RT sequences from 876 new HIV diagnoses (April 2013 - March 2015) in Kiev were linked to demographic data. We constructed phylogenetic trees for 794 subtype A1 and 64 subtype B sequences and identified factors associated with transmission clustering. Clusters were defined as ≥ 2 sequences, ≥ 80% local branch support and maximum genetic distance of all sequence pairs in the cluster ≤ 2.5%. Recent infection was determined through the LAg avidity EIA assay. Sequences were analysed for transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations.

Results: 30% of subtype A1 and 66% of subtype B sequences clustered. Large clusters (maximum 11 sequences) contained mixed risk groups. In univariate analysis, clustering was significantly associated with subtype B compared to A1 (OR 4.38 [95% CI 2.56-7.50]), risk group (OR 5.65 [3.27-9.75]) for men who have sex with men compared to heterosexual males, recent, compared to long-standing, infection (OR 2.72 [1.64-4.52]), reported sex work contact (OR 1.93 [1.07-3.47]) and younger age groups compared to age ≥36 (OR 1.83 [1.10-3.05] for age ≤25). Females were associated with lower odds of clustering than heterosexual males (OR 0.49 [0.31-0.77]). In multivariate analysis, risk group, subtype and age group were independently associated with clustering (p<0.001, p=0.007 and p=0.033). 18 sequences (2.1%) indicated evidence of TDR.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest high levels of transmission and bridging between risk groups.

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Contextualizing willingness to participate: recommendations for engagement, recruitment & enrolment of Kenyan MSM in future HIV prevention trials

Doshi M, Avery L, Kaddu RP, Gichuhi M, Gakii G, du Plessis E, Dutta S, Khan S, Kimani J, Lorway RR. BMC Public Health. 2017 May 18;17(1):469 doi: 10.1186/s12889-017-4395-4.

Background: The HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) continues to expand globally. The addition of an efficacious, prophylactic vaccine to combination prevention offers immense hope, particularly in low- and middle- income countries which bear the greatest global impact. However, in these settings, there is a paucity of vaccine preparedness studies that specifically pertain to MSM. Our study is the first vaccine preparedness study among MSM and female sex workers (FSWs) in Kenya. In this paper, we explore willingness of Kenyan MSM to participate in HIV vaccine efficacy trials. In addition to individual and socio-cultural motivators and barriers that influence willingness to participate (WTP), we explore the associations or linkages that participants draw between their experiences with or knowledge of medical research both generally and within the context of HIV/AIDS, their perceptions of a future HIV vaccine and their willingness to participate in HIV vaccine trials.

Methods: Using a social network-based approach, we employed snowball sampling to recruit MSM into the study from Kisumu, Mombasa, and Nairobi. A field team consisting of seven community researchers conducted in-depth interviews with a total of 70 study participants. A coding scheme for transcribed and translated data was developed and the data was then analysed thematically.

Results: Most participants felt that an HIV vaccine would bring a number of benefits to self, as well as to MSM communities, including quelling personal fears related to HIV acquisition and reducing/eliminating stigma and discrimination shouldered by their community. Willingness to participate in HIV vaccine efficacy trials was highly motivated by various forms of altruism. Specific researcher responsibilities centred on safe-guarding the rights and well-being of participants were also found to govern WTP, as were reflections on the acceptability of a future preventive HIV vaccine.

Conclusion: Strategies for engagement of communities and recruitment of trial volunteers for HIV vaccine efficacy trials should not only be grounded in and informed by investigations into individual and socio-cultural factors that impact WTP, but also by explorations of participants' existing experiences with or knowledge of medical research as well as attitudes and acceptance towards a future HIV vaccine.

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Africa, Asia, Northern America
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New evidence in support of opioid substitution therapy as a key HIV programme for people who inject drugs

Impact of opioid substitution therapy on antiretroviral therapy outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Low AJ, Mburu G, Welton NJ, May MT, Davies CF, French C, Turner K, Looker KJ, Christensen H, McLean S, Rhodes T, Platt L, Hickman M, Guise A, Vickerman P. Clin Infect Dis. 2016 Jun 25. pii: ciw416. [Epub ahead of print]

Background: HIV-positive people who inject drugs (PWID) frequently encounter barriers accessing and remaining on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Some studies have suggested that opioid substitution therapy (OST) could facilitate PWID's engagement with HIV services. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of concurrent OST use on ART-related outcomes among HIV-positive PWID.

Methods: We searched Medline, PsycInfo, Embase, Global Health, Cochrane, Web of Science, and Social Policy and Practice databases for studies between 1996 to November 2014 documenting the impact of OST, compared to no OST, on ART outcomes. Outcomes considered were: coverage and recruitment onto ART, adherence, viral suppression, attrition from ART, and mortality. Meta-analyses were conducted using random effects modelling, and heterogeneity assessed using Cochran's Q test and I2 statistic.

Results: We identified 4685 articles, and 32 studies conducted in North America, Europe, Indonesia and China were included. OST was associated with a 69% increase in recruitment onto ART (HR=1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32-2.15), a 54% increase in ART coverage (OR=1.54; 95% CI: 1.17-2.03), a two-fold increase in adherence (OR=2.14, 95% CI: 1.41-3.26), and a 23% decrease in the odds of attrition (OR=0.77, 95% CI:0.63-0.95). OST was associated with a 45% increase in odds of viral suppression (OR=1.45, 95%CI:1.21-1.73), but there was limited evidence from six studies for OST decreasing mortality for PWID on ART (HR=0.91, 95% CI:0.65-1.25).

Conclusions: These findings support the use of OST, and its integration with HIV services, to improve the HIV treatment and care continuum amongst HIV-positive PWID.

Abstract access

Editor’s notes: This is a very important study contributing new evidence on how opioid substitution therapy can help in the treatment and prevention of HIV among people who inject drugs. This review provides key evidence in support of opioid substitution therapy as a cornerstone HIV treatment and prevention programme. This evidence is essential given the growing number of HIV infections among people who inject drugs globally, particularly in eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. There is a wealth of evidence from systematic reviews and mathematical modelling to illustrate how the use of opioid substitution therapy decreases risk of HIV acquisition at an individual-level.  It can also reduce HIV prevalence and incidence at the population level. This review is important in that it illustrates how opioid substitution therapy can facilitate HIV treatment.  Findings illustrate that opioid substitution therapy works by increasing adherence to HIV treatment, decreasing attrition from treatment and increasing odds of viral suppression reducing the odds of onwards HIV transmission. In addition to this important review, there is also a need to understand the role opioid substitution therapy might have in increasing uptake of HIV testing. This review does not address that question. It is notable that few studies on impact of opioid substitution therapy on HIV treatment outcomes and uptake included in the review were identified in low-income countries or eastern Europe where need is greatest. This partly reflects the lack of opioid substitution therapy programmes in that region, particularly the Russian Federation. This is also the case in sub-Saharan Africa where opioid substitution therapy programmes are newly established and yet to be evaluated. Future research is necessary to understand how opioid substitution therapy might work: (1) where transmission of HIV is predominantly sexual and (2) where injecting drug use occurs within very different social and economic contexts.

Asia, Europe, Northern America
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The conundrum of future funding for HIV – who pays and how?

Long-term financing needs for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015-2050: a modelling study. 

Atun R, Chang AY, Ogbuoji O, Silva S, Resch S, Hontelez J, Barnighausen T. BMJ Open. 2016 Mar 6;6(3):e009656. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009656.

Objectives: To estimate the present value of current and future funding needed for HIV treatment and prevention in 9 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries that account for 70% of HIV burden in Africa under different scenarios of intervention scale-up. To analyse the gaps between current expenditures and funding obligation, and discuss the policy implications of future financing needs.

Design: We used the Goals module from Spectrum, and applied the most up-to-date cost and coverage data to provide a range of estimates for future financing obligations. The four different scale-up scenarios vary by treatment initiation threshold and service coverage level. We compared the model projections to current domestic and international financial sources available in selected SSA countries.

Results: In the 9 SSA countries, the estimated resources required for HIV prevention and treatment in 2015-2050 range from US$98 billion to maintain current coverage levels for treatment and prevention with eligibility for treatment initiation at CD4 count of <500/mm3 to US$261 billion if treatment were to be extended to all HIV-positive individuals and prevention scaled up. With the addition of new funding obligations for HIV–which arise implicitly through commitment to achieve higher than current treatment coverage levels–overall financial obligations (sum of debt levels and the present value of the stock of future HIV funding obligations) would rise substantially.

Conclusions: Investing upfront in scale-up of HIV services to achieve high coverage levels will reduce HIV incidence, prevention and future treatment expenditures by realising long-term preventive effects of ART to reduce HIV transmission. Future obligations are too substantial for most SSA countries to be met from domestic sources alone. New sources of funding, in addition to domestic sources, include innovative financing. Debt sustainability for sustained HIV response is an urgent imperative for affected countries and donors

Abstract  Full-text [free] access 

Editor’s notes: The authors of this interesting paper use the most up-to-date cost and coverage data to provide a range of estimates for future treatment financing obligations. Epidemiological parameters are included to fit the Goals model and key prevention services such as ‘prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission’ and ‘voluntary medical male circumcision’ are also included.

Financing needs for the nine countries are estimated by varying treatment initiation threshold (everyone initiated on treatment versus initiation at CD4 of <500cells/mm3) and/or coverage level for prevention and treatment (‘current’ levels and a ‘scale up’ scenario). The authors also attempt to assess both the ethics and the cost of different approaches.

For all scenarios, there is a steady decline in proportion of treatment costs and an increase in the proportion of prevention costs. This apparent contradiction is largely because there will be fewer individuals on treatment over time but prevention costs rise because they are mostly invested in non-infected populations, which increases with population growth.

In the nine countries, estimated resources required for HIV prevention and treatment from 2015-2050 will be large. This is increased further when human resources and supplies increase at the rate of GDP per capita.

However, there is undoubtedly an ethical responsibility to not only continue financing people receiving ART, but, that the responsibility extends to people in equal need who are not on treatment. The ethics is underpinned by the evidence. This illustrates how ‘front-loading’ investments in HIV scale-up now to ensure high levels of coverage, will significantly reduce future HIV incidence and prevalence. 

Africa
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