The conundrum of future funding for HIV – who pays and how?

Long-term financing needs for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015-2050: a modelling study. 

Atun R, Chang AY, Ogbuoji O, Silva S, Resch S, Hontelez J, Barnighausen T. BMJ Open. 2016 Mar 6;6(3):e009656. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009656.

Objectives: To estimate the present value of current and future funding needed for HIV treatment and prevention in 9 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries that account for 70% of HIV burden in Africa under different scenarios of intervention scale-up. To analyse the gaps between current expenditures and funding obligation, and discuss the policy implications of future financing needs.

Design: We used the Goals module from Spectrum, and applied the most up-to-date cost and coverage data to provide a range of estimates for future financing obligations. The four different scale-up scenarios vary by treatment initiation threshold and service coverage level. We compared the model projections to current domestic and international financial sources available in selected SSA countries.

Results: In the 9 SSA countries, the estimated resources required for HIV prevention and treatment in 2015-2050 range from US$98 billion to maintain current coverage levels for treatment and prevention with eligibility for treatment initiation at CD4 count of <500/mm3 to US$261 billion if treatment were to be extended to all HIV-positive individuals and prevention scaled up. With the addition of new funding obligations for HIV–which arise implicitly through commitment to achieve higher than current treatment coverage levels–overall financial obligations (sum of debt levels and the present value of the stock of future HIV funding obligations) would rise substantially.

Conclusions: Investing upfront in scale-up of HIV services to achieve high coverage levels will reduce HIV incidence, prevention and future treatment expenditures by realising long-term preventive effects of ART to reduce HIV transmission. Future obligations are too substantial for most SSA countries to be met from domestic sources alone. New sources of funding, in addition to domestic sources, include innovative financing. Debt sustainability for sustained HIV response is an urgent imperative for affected countries and donors

Abstract  Full-text [free] access 

Editor’s notes: The authors of this interesting paper use the most up-to-date cost and coverage data to provide a range of estimates for future treatment financing obligations. Epidemiological parameters are included to fit the Goals model and key prevention services such as ‘prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission’ and ‘voluntary medical male circumcision’ are also included.

Financing needs for the nine countries are estimated by varying treatment initiation threshold (everyone initiated on treatment versus initiation at CD4 of <500cells/mm3) and/or coverage level for prevention and treatment (‘current’ levels and a ‘scale up’ scenario). The authors also attempt to assess both the ethics and the cost of different approaches.

For all scenarios, there is a steady decline in proportion of treatment costs and an increase in the proportion of prevention costs. This apparent contradiction is largely because there will be fewer individuals on treatment over time but prevention costs rise because they are mostly invested in non-infected populations, which increases with population growth.

In the nine countries, estimated resources required for HIV prevention and treatment from 2015-2050 will be large. This is increased further when human resources and supplies increase at the rate of GDP per capita.

However, there is undoubtedly an ethical responsibility to not only continue financing people receiving ART, but, that the responsibility extends to people in equal need who are not on treatment. The ethics is underpinned by the evidence. This illustrates how ‘front-loading’ investments in HIV scale-up now to ensure high levels of coverage, will significantly reduce future HIV incidence and prevalence. 

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