The power of PEPFAR programmes: estimates of infections averted and life years gained in Africa

Estimating the impact of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief on HIV treatment and prevention programmes in Africa.

Heaton LM, Bouey PD, Fu J, Stover J, Fowler TB, Lyerla R, Mahy M. Sex Transm Infect. 2015 Dec;91(8):615-20. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2014-051991. Epub 2015 Jun 8.

Background: Since 2004, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported the tremendous scale-up of HIV prevention, care and treatment services, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluate the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programmes on survival, mortality, new infections and the number of orphans from 2004 to 2013 in 16 PEPFAR countries in Africa.

Methods: PEPFAR indicators tracking the number of persons receiving ART for their own health, ART regimens for PMTCT and biomedical prevention of HIV through VMMC were collected across 16 PEPFAR countries. To estimate the impact of PEPFAR programmes for ART, PMTCT and VMMC, we compared the current scenario of PEPFAR-supported interventions to a counterfactual scenario without PEPFAR, and assessed the number of life years gained (LYG), number of orphans averted and HIV infections averted. Mathematical modelling was conducted using the SPECTRUM modelling suite V.5.03.

Results: From 2004 to 2013, PEPFAR programmes provided support for a cumulative number of     24 565 127 adults and children on ART, 4 154 878 medical male circumcisions, and ART for PMTCT among 4 154 478 pregnant women in 16 PEPFAR countries. Based on findings from the model, these efforts have helped avert 2.9 million HIV infections in the same period. During 2004-2013, PEPFAR ART programmes alone helped avert almost 9 million orphans in 16 PEPFAR countries and resulted in 11.6 million LYG.

Conclusions: Modelling results suggest that the rapid scale-up of PEPFAR-funded ART, PMTCT and VMMC programmes in Africa during 2004-2013 led to substantially fewer new HIV infections and orphaned children during that time and longer lives among people living with HIV. Our estimates do not account for the impact of the PEPFAR-funded non-biomedical interventions such as behavioural and structural interventions included in the comprehensive HIV prevention, care and treatment strategy used by PEPFAR countries. Therefore, the number of HIV infections and orphans averted and LYG may be underestimated by these models.

Abstract access [1]

Editor’s notes: The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) was initiated in 2004 with $42 billion spent up until the end of 2013. Despite limitations in monitoring the overall contribution of PEPFAR to individual programmes, this article attempts to provide an overview of PEPFAR support for ART, prevention of mother to child transmission and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programmes using the 2014 version of Spectrum Software model. The Spectrum modules used included DemProj, AIDS Impact Model (AIM) and Goals, which interact to model the impact and future course of the HIV epidemic at the population level.  An estimate of PEPFAR’s contribution was obtained by subtracting it from the total for the national programme statistics reported by UNAIDS on ART, PMTCT and VMMC.

The baseline scenario of PEPFAR-supported programmes in 2013 was compared to a counterfactual scenario, which subtracts the direct contribution of PEPFAR. The results estimate that the combined programmes have averted 2.7 million infections in Africa, with over 11.5 million life years gained and the aversion of almost nine million orphans. Other key population programmes that the funding supported including gender equity and health strengthening were not evaluated and therefore, the estimate for impact may be conservative. A limitation of the analysis is that it is unable to predict the national response without PEPFAR and the impact of ART calculated by the model is sensitive to the distribution of new ART patients by CD4 count at the initiation of treatment. In addition, few countries have sufficient death registration systems to validate mortality estimates, which may result in the accomplishments of PEPFAR’s impact being overestimated. However, with the operation of PEPFAR in a larger context of partnership consortiums, an improvement in evaluation methods will be necessary. 

Africa [9]
Botswana [10], Côte d'Ivoire [11], Ethiopia [12], Kenya [13], Lesotho [14], Malawi [15], Mozambique [16], Namibia [17], Nigeria [18], Rwanda [19], South Africa [20], Swaziland [21], Uganda [22], United Republic of Tanzania [23], Zambia [24], Zimbabwe [25]
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