Sexual risk behaviour, HIV prevalence unchanged in Kenya as more men are circumcised

Changes in male circumcision prevalence and risk compensation in the Kisumu, Kenya population, 2008-2013.

Westercamp M, Jaoko W, Mehta S, Abuor P, Siambe P, Bailey RC. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2017 Feb 1;74(2):e30-e37. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000001180.

Background: Three randomized controlled trials showed that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male HIV transmission by approximately 60%. However, data from communities where VMMC programs have been implemented are needed to assess changes in circumcision prevalence and whether men and women compensate for perceived reductions in risk by increasing their HIV risk behaviors.

Methods: Scale-up of free VMMC began in Kisumu, Kenya in 2008. Between 2009 and 2013, a sequence of 3 unlinked cross-sectional surveys were conducted. All individuals 15-49 years of age residing in randomly selected households were interviewed and offered HIV testing. Male circumcision status was confirmed by examination. Design-adjusted bivariate comparisons and multivariable analyses were used for statistical inference.

Results: The prevalence of male circumcision increased from 32% (95% CI: 26% to 38%) in 2009 to 60% (95% CI: 56% to 63%) in 2013. The adjusted prevalence ratio of HIV and genital ulcer disease in circumcised compared with uncircumcised men was 0.48 (95% CI: 0.36 to 0.66) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.37 to 0.69), respectively. There was no association between circumcision status and sexual behaviors, HIV knowledge, or indicators of risk perception.

Conclusions: The conditions necessary for the VMMC program to have a significant public health impact are present in Kisumu, Kenya. Between 2009 and 2013, circumcision prevalence increased from 30% to 60%; HIV prevalence in circumcised men was half that of uncircumcised men, and there was no or minimal sexual risk compensation.

Abstract access   [1]

Editor’s notes: Evidence of the protective effect of male circumcision on HIV incidence has led many countries in sub-Saharan Africa to promote voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). Mathematical models have illustrated that VMMC programmes will reduce HIV prevalence over time when VMMC uptake is high, and when men who have had VMMC do not substantially increase their sexual risk behaviours. In Kenya, the VMMC programme has exceeded its targets, with over 1.1 million procedures conducted between 2008 and 2015. In this paper, the authors assessed the assumptions behind the models, using data from three population-based cross-sectional surveys conducted among male and female adult residents of Kisumu, Kenya between 2009 and 2013. During this time, VMMC prevalence among men almost doubled from 32% to 60%, yet, HIV prevalence did not change for men or women. In addition, men who had VMMC reported the same levels of sexual risk behaviours as men who were not circumcised, yet had half the prevalence of HIV and genital ulcer disease. This study re-confirms the individual benefit of VMMC in a non-trial population, while demonstrating no evidence for sexual risk compensation. This study is notable for its large sample size, population-based sampling design, visual confirmation of circumcision status, and HIV testing protocol. Studies of longer duration are required to confirm the population-level impacts of VMMC– i.e. a protection benefit beyond men who had VMMC - on HIV prevalence, and to monitor the longer-term trend in sexual risk behaviours.

Africa [8]
Kenya [9]
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